成功的商人不懂宏观经济
<p><span word="TOKYO">TOKYO</span> — <span word="The">The</span> <span word="Bank">Bank</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Japan">Japan</span>, <span word="this">this</span> <span word="country">country</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="equivalent">equivalent</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Federal">Federal</span> <span word="Reserve">Reserve</span>, <span word="has">has</span> <span word="lately">lately</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="making">making</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="big">big</span> <span word="effort">effort</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="end">end</span> <span word="deflation">deflation</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="afflicted">afflicted</span> <span word="Japan">Japan</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="economy">economy</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="almost">almost</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="decades">decades</span>. <span word="At">At</span> <span word="first">first</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="efforts">efforts</span> — <span word="which">which</span> <span word="involve">involve</span> <span word="printing">printing</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="lot">lot</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="money">money</span> <span word="and">and</span>, <span word="even">even</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="important">important</span>, <span word="trying">trying</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="assure">assure</span> <span word="investors">investors</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="keep">keep</span> <span word="printing">printing</span> <span word="money">money</span> <span word="until">until</span> <span word="inflation">inflation</span> <span word="reaches">reaches</span> 2 <span word="percent">percent</span> — <span word="seemed">seemed</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="going">going</span> <span word="well">well</span>. <span word="But">But</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="recently">recently</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="economy">economy</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="lost">lost</span> <span word="momentum">momentum</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="last">last</span> <span word="week">week</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="bank">bank</span> <span word="announced">announced</span> <span word="new">new</span>, <span word="even">even</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="aggressive">aggressive</span> <span word="monetary">monetary</span> <span word="measures">measures</span>.</p><p>东京——日本银行(<span word="Bank">Bank</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Japan">Japan</span>)，也就是日本相当于美联储(<span word="Federal">Federal</span> <span word="Reserve">Reserve</span>)的机构，最近做了很多努力试图终结通货紧缩，这个问题已经困扰了日本将近20年。作为日本的中央银行，它最初采取的举措似乎效果不错，包括印很多钱，更重要的是，它还试图让投资者相信，会一直继续印钱，直到通胀水平达到2%。但是最近，日本经济失去了动力，上周，日本央行又宣布了新的、更激进的货币动作。</p><p><span word="I">I</span> <span word="am">am</span>, <span word="as">as</span> <span word="you">you</span> <span word="might">might</span> <span word="guess">guess</span>, <span word="very">very</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="favor">favor</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="move">move</span>, <span word="although">although</span> <span word="I">I</span> <span word="worry">worry</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="policy">policy</span> <span word="might">might</span> <span word="nonetheless">nonetheless</span> <span word="fail">fail</span> <span word="thanks">thanks</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="fiscal">fiscal</span> <span word="mistakes">mistakes</span>. (<span word="More">More</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="later">later</span>.) <span word="While">While</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="bank">bank</span> <span word="did">did</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="right">right</span> <span word="thing">thing</span>, <span word="however">however</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="did">did</span> <span word="so">so</span> <span word="amid">amid</span> <span word="substantial">substantial</span> <span word="internal">internal</span> <span word="dissent">dissent</span>. <span word="In">In</span> <span word="fact">fact</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="stimulus">stimulus</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="approved">approved</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="only">only</span> <span word="five">five</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="bank">bank</span> <span word="board">board</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="nine">nine</span> <span word="members">members</span>, <span word="with">with</span> <span word="those">those</span> <span word="closest">closest</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="business">business</span> <span word="voting">voting</span> <span word="against">against</span>. <span word="Which">Which</span> <span word="brings">brings</span> <span word="me">me</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="subject">subject</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="column">column</span>: <span word="the">the</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="wisdom">wisdom</span>, <span word="or">or</span> <span word="lack">lack</span> <span word="thereof">thereof</span>, <span word="of">of</span> <span word="business">business</span> <span word="leaders">leaders</span>.</p>
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