死亡率模式保持不变 何必为长寿烦恼
<p><span word="In">In</span> <span word="developed">developed</span> <span word="countries">countries</span> <span word="today">today</span> <span word="life">life</span> <span word="expectancy">expectancy</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="birth">birth</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="about">about</span> 80 <span word="years">years</span>. <span word="That">That</span> <span word="figure">figure</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="almost">almost</span> <span word="doubled">doubled</span> <span word="over">over</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="past">past</span> <span word="century">century</span>. <span word="Life">Life</span> <span word="expectancy">expectancy</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="birth">birth</span> <span word="measures">measures</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="long">long</span> <span word="someone">someone</span> <span word="born">born</span> <span word="today">today</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="survive">survive</span> <span word="if">if</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="patterns">patterns</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="mortality">mortality</span> <span word="existing">existing</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="were">were</span> <span word="born">born</span> <span word="continued">continued</span> <span word="through">through</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="lifetime">lifetime</span>. <span word="But">But</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="not">not</span>.</p><p>在发达国家，现在出生的人预期寿命约为80岁。这个数字在过去的1个世纪里几乎翻了一番。人在出生时的预期寿命衡量的是，现在出生的人，如果他们出生时整个社会的死亡率模式在他们一生中保持不变，那么他们的寿命是多久。但死亡率模式不会保持不变。</p><p><span word="These">These</span> <span word="patterns">patterns</span> <span word="improve">improve</span>, <span word="so">so</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="people">people</span> <span word="born">born</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="past">past</span> <span word="century">century</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="lived">lived</span> <span word="far">far</span> <span word="beyond">beyond</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="life">life</span> <span word="expectancy">expectancy</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="birth">birth</span>. <span word="Children">Children</span> <span word="born">born</span> <span word="today">today</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="expect">expect</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="live">live</span> <span word="well">well</span> <span word="beyond">beyond</span> 80 <span word="years">years</span>, <span word="even">even</span> <span word="if">if</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="claim">claim</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="Peter">Peter</span> <span word="Thiel">Thiel</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Aubrey">Aubrey</span> <span word="de">de</span> <span word="Grey">Grey</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="first">first</span> 1,000-<span word="year">year</span> <span word="man">man</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="already">already</span> <span word="alive">alive</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="optimistic">optimistic</span>.</p><p>死亡率模式在不断改善，因此，过去一个世纪中出生的大部分人活着的时间，已经远远超出了他们出生时的预期寿命。即便企业家彼得•蒂尔(<span word="Peter">Peter</span> <span word="Thiel">Thiel</span>)和学者奥布里•德格雷(<span word="Aubrey">Aubrey</span> <span word="de">de</span> <span word="Grey">Grey</span>)宣称第1个能活到1000岁的人已经出现的说法过于乐观，但可以预计，今天出生的儿童的寿命将远不止80岁。</p><p><span word="Life">Life</span> <span word="expectancy">expectancy</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="lower">lower</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="century">century</span> <span word="ago">ago</span> <span word="because">because</span> <span word="many">many</span> <span word="children">children</span> <span word="died">died</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="infancy">infancy</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="many">many</span> <span word="adults">adults</span> <span word="failed">failed</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="achieve">achieve</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="normal">normal</span> <span word="lifespan">lifespan</span> <span word="because">because</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="were">were</span> <span word="killed">killed</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="now">now</span>-<span word="curable">curable</span> <span word="infectious">infectious</span> <span word="diseases">diseases</span>. <span word="Deaths">Deaths</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="these">these</span> <span word="sources">sources</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="now">now</span> <span word="so">so</span> <span word="low">low</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="even">even</span> <span word="dramatic">dramatic</span> <span word="further">further</span> <span word="improvements">improvements</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="effect">effect</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="average">average</span> <span word="lifespan">lifespan</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="important">important</span> <span word="factor">factor</span> <span word="today">today</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="increases">increases</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="life">life</span> <span word="expectancy">expectancy</span> <span word="after">after</span> <span word="conventional">conventional</span> <span word="ages">ages</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="retirement">retirement</span>. <span word="This">This</span> <span word="measure">measure</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="recently">recently</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="improving">improving</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="months">months</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="year">year</span>.</p>
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