看诺贝尔经济学奖得主如何谈投资
<p><span word="Yale">Yale</span> <span word="University">University</span> <span word="professor">professor</span> <span word="best">best</span> <span word="known">known</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="early">early</span>, <span word="accurate">accurate</span> <span word="prediction">prediction</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="U">U</span>.<span word="S">S</span>. <span word="house">house</span> <span word="prices">prices</span> <span word="were">were</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="bubble">bubble</span> <span word="just">just</span> <span word="waiting">waiting</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="burst">burst</span>, <span word="has">has</span> <span word="long">long</span> <span word="worked">worked</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="intersection">intersection</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="psychology">psychology</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="economics">economics</span>. <span word="He">He</span> <span word="recently">recently</span> <span word="shared">shared</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Nobel">Nobel</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="economics">economics</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="insights">insights</span> <span word="into">into</span> <span word="why">why</span> <span word="prices">prices</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="stocks">stocks</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="houses">houses</span> <span word="fluctuate">fluctuate</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="do">do</span>, <span word="particularly">particularly</span> <span word="work">work</span> <span word="showing">showing</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="markets">markets</span> <span word="move">move</span> <span word="too">too</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="explained">explained</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="rational">rational</span> <span word="investors">investors</span> <span word="responding">responding</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="changing">changing</span> <span word="fundamentals">fundamentals</span>.</p><p>耶鲁大学教授罗伯特・席勒(<span word="Robert">Robert</span> <span word="Shiller">Shiller</span>)长期以来都在从事心理学和经济学的交叉研究，他因很早就准确预测到美国房价是即将破裂的泡沫而名声大噪。他最近与人共同分享了诺贝尔经济学奖，因他对股票和房屋价格波动进行了深入研究，尤其是他研究发现，市场波动幅度如此巨大，已经无法解释为这是理性投资者对基本面变化作出反应的结果。</p><p><span word="Once">Once</span> <span word="lauded">lauded</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="both">both</span> <span word="a">a</span> '<span word="poet">poet</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="plumber">plumber</span>' <span word="or">or</span>, <span word="someone">someone</span> <span word="who">who</span> <span word="articulates">articulates</span> <span word="radical">radical</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="visions">visions</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="installs">installs</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="infrastructure">infrastructure</span> <span word="needed">needed</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="implement">implement</span> <span word="them">them</span>-<span word="Shiller">Shiller</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="helped">helped</span> <span word="develop">develop</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="products">products</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="indexes">indexes</span>. <span word="He">He</span> <span word="recently">recently</span> <span word="met">met</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="David">David</span> <span word="Wessel">Wessel</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="contributing">contributing</span> <span word="correspondent">correspondent</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Journal">Journal</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="director">director</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Hutchins">Hutchins</span> <span word="Center">Center</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="Fiscal">Fiscal</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Monetary">Monetary</span> <span word="Policy">Policy</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Brookings">Brookings</span> <span word="Institution">Institution</span>. <span word="Their">Their</span> <span word="edited">edited</span> <span word="remarks">remarks</span> <span word="follow">follow</span>:</p><p>席勒曾享有“诗人兼管道工”的美誉──或者说，一个清晰描绘激进的新愿景并为落实这些愿景而构建基础设施的人──他还帮助开发了新的金融产品和指数。席勒最近会见了《华尔街日报》的特约记者、布鲁金斯学会(<span word="the">the</span> <span word="Brookings">Brookings</span> <span word="Institution">Institution</span>)哈钦斯财政金融政策中心(<span word="the">the</span> <span word="Hutchins">Hutchins</span> <span word="Center">Center</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="Fiscal">Fiscal</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Monetary">Monetary</span> <span word="Policy">Policy</span>)主任戴维・韦塞尔(<span word="David">David</span> <span word="Wessel">Wessel</span>)，他们之间谈话编辑如下：</p>
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