你不知道iPhone5对美国经济的重要性
<p><span word="Forget">Forget</span> <span word="QE">QE</span>3. <span word="Maybe">Maybe</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="way">way</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="stimulate">stimulate</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="economy">economy</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="force">force</span> <span word="Apple">Apple</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="release">release</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="iPhone">iPhone</span> <span word="models">models</span>.</p><p>别管什么第三轮量化宽松(<span word="QE">QE</span>3)了。或许刺激经济的办法就是强迫苹果公司(<span word="Apple">Apple</span>)发布更多新款<span word="iPhone">iPhone</span>。</p><p><span word="O">O</span>.<span word="K">K</span>., <span word="that">that</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="exactly">exactly</span> <span word="right">right</span>. <span word="But">But</span> <span word="Michael">Michael</span> <span word="Feroli">Feroli</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="chief">chief</span> <span word="United">United</span> <span word="States">States</span> <span word="economist">economist</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="JPMorgan">JPMorgan</span> <span word="Chase">Chase</span>, <span word="did">did</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="back">back</span>-<span word="of">of</span>-<span word="the">the</span>-<span word="envelope">envelope</span> <span word="calculation">calculation</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="estimated">estimated</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="upcoming">upcoming</span> <span word="release">release</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="what">what</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="expected">expected</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="iPhone">iPhone</span> 5 <span word="could">could</span> <span word="add">add</span> <span word="one">one</span>-<span word="quarter">quarter</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="one">one</span>-<span word="half">half</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="percentage">percentage</span> <span word="point">point</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="annualized">annualized</span> <span word="growth">growth</span> <span word="rate">rate</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="America">America</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="gross">gross</span> <span word="domestic">domestic</span> <span word="product">product</span> <span word="next">next</span> <span word="quarter">quarter</span>.</p><p>好吧，这也不完全正确。但摩根大通公司(<span word="JPMorgan">JPMorgan</span> <span word="Chase">Chase</span>)的首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利(<span word="Michael">Michael</span> <span word="Feroli">Feroli</span>)做了一个粗略计算，他估计即将上市的<span word="iPhone">iPhone</span> 5会在下一季度为美国国内生产总值(<span word="GDP">GDP</span>)的年化增长率带来0.25到0.5个百分点的提振。</p><p><span word="From">From</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="note">note</span> <span word="he">he</span> <span word="sent">sent</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="clients">clients</span> <span word="today">today</span>:</p><p>他今天发送给客户的报告中这样写道：</p><p><span word="Our">Our</span> <span word="equity">equity</span> <span word="analysts">analysts</span> <span word="believe">believe</span> <span word="around">around</span> 8 <span word="million">million</span> <span word="iPhone">iPhone</span> 5'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="sold">sold</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="US">US</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Q">Q</span>4, <span word="even">even</span> <span word="while">while</span> <span word="sales">sales</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="previous">previous</span> <span word="generation">generation</span> <span word="iPhones">iPhones</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="maintained">maintained</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="solid">solid</span> <span word="pace">pace</span>. <span word="While">While</span> <span word="we">we</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="no">no</span> <span word="idea">idea</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="these">these</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="retail">retail</span> <span word="for">for</span>, <span word="if">if</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="similar">similar</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="previous">previous</span> <span word="launches">launches</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="around">around</span> $600. <span word="Likewise">Likewise</span>, <span word="if">if</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="imported">imported</span> <span word="cost">cost</span> <span word="component">component</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="similar">similar</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="previous">previous</span> <span word="leading">leading</span> <span word="generation">generation</span> <span word="phones">phones</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="imply">imply</span> <span word="around">around</span> <span word="a">a</span> $200 <span word="per">per</span> <span word="phone">phone</span> <span word="addition">addition</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="imports">imports</span> (<span word="which">which</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="subtraction">subtraction</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span>). <span word="The">The</span> <span word="difference">difference</span> <span word="between">between</span> <span word="these">these</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="figures">figures</span>, $400, <span word="would">would</span> <span word="represent">represent</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="trade">trade</span> <span word="margins">margins</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="figure">figure</span> <span word="into">into</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span>. <span word="Thus">Thus</span>, <span word="calculated">calculated</span> <span word="using">using</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="so">so</span>-<span word="called">called</span> <span word="retail">retail</span> <span word="control">control</span> <span word="method">method</span>, <span word="sales">sales</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="iPhone">iPhone</span> 5 <span word="could">could</span> <span word="boost">boost</span> <span word="Q">Q</span>4 <span word="GDP">GDP</span> <span word="by">by</span> $3.2 <span word="billion">billion</span>, <span word="or">or</span> $12.8 <span word="billion">billion</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="annual">annual</span> <span word="rate">rate</span>. <span word="This">This</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="boost">boost</span> <span word="annualized">annualized</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span> <span word="growth">growth</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Q">Q</span>4 <span word="by">by</span> 0.33%-<span word="point">point</span>. <span word="If">If</span> <span word="hedonically">hedonically</span> <span word="adjusted">adjusted</span> <span word="constant">constant</span> <span word="quality">quality</span> <span word="prices">prices</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="phones">phones</span> <span word="declined">declined</span> <span word="due">due</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="newer">newer</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="better">better</span> <span word="features">features</span> -- <span word="a">a</span> <span word="reasonable">reasonable</span> <span word="conjecture">conjecture</span> -- <span word="then">then</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="lift">lift</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="even">even</span> <span word="greater">greater</span>, <span word="though">though</span> <span word="past">past</span> <span word="iPhone">iPhone</span> <span word="releases">releases</span> <span word="don">don</span>'<span word="t">t</span> <span word="bear">bear</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="visible">visible</span> <span word="impact">impact</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="relevant">relevant</span> <span word="CPI">CPI</span> <span word="components">components</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="third">third</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="percentage">percentage</span> <span word="point">point</span> <span word="lift">lift</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="limit">limit</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="downside">downside</span> <span word="risk">risk</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="our">our</span> <span word="Q">Q</span>4 <span word="GDP">GDP</span> <span word="growth">growth</span> <span word="projection">projection</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="remains">remains</span> 2.0%.</p>
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