美国股市奇特的九月效应
<p><span word="As">As</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="turn">turn</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="calendar">calendar</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="September">September</span>, <span word="investors">investors</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="good">good</span> <span word="reason">reason</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="wary">wary</span>.</p><p>日子行进到九月，投资者有必要警惕起来了。</p><p><span word="The">The</span> <span word="docket">docket</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="full">full</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="news">news</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="disrupt">disrupt</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Standard">Standard</span> & <span word="Poor">Poor</span>'<span word="s">s</span> 500'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="roughly">roughly</span> 7% <span word="climb">climb</span> <span word="since">since</span> <span word="June">June</span>. <span word="On">On</span> <span word="Friday">Friday</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Labor">Labor</span> <span word="Department">Department</span> <span word="releases">releases</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="latest">latest</span> <span word="jobs">jobs</span> <span word="figures">figures</span>. <span word="On">On</span> <span word="Sept">Sept</span>. 12, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="German">German</span> <span word="court">court</span> <span word="rules">rules</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="constitutionality">constitutionality</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="critical">critical</span> <span word="rescue">rescue</span> <span word="fund">fund</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="euro">euro</span> <span word="zone">zone</span>. <span word="And">And</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Federal">Federal</span> <span word="Reserve">Reserve</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="expected">expected</span> <span word="soon">soon</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="make">make</span> <span word="clear">clear</span> <span word="whether">whether</span> <span word="there">there</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="third">third</span> <span word="round">round</span> <span word="of">of</span> '<span word="quantitative">quantitative</span> <span word="easing">easing</span>.'</p><p>从日程表上的重要事件来看，标准普尔500指数自六月以来大约7%的升幅随时可能玩完。8月31日，美国劳工部(<span word="Labor">Labor</span> <span word="Department">Department</span>)公布了最新的就业数据。9月12日，德国某法院将就欧元区一个关键的救助基金计划是否符合宪法规定作出裁决。此外，美联储(<span word="Federal">Federal</span> <span word="Reserve">Reserve</span>)估计很快也将就是否推出第三轮“量化宽松”政策作出明确表态。</p><p><span word="But">But</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="special">special</span> <span word="interest">interest</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="historians">historians</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="calendar">calendar</span> <span word="itself">itself</span>. <span word="Put">Put</span> <span word="simply">simply</span>, <span word="Sept">Sept</span>. 1 <span word="marks">marks</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="start">start</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="historically">historically</span> <span word="miserable">miserable</span> <span word="month">month</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="stocks">stocks</span>.</p><p>但在史学家的眼里，日程表本身最有意思。因为历史经验表明，一旦日历翻到9月1日，对美国股市来说就意味着悲惨的一个月开始了。</p><p><span word="That">That</span> <span word="isn">isn</span>'<span word="t">t</span> <span word="reason">reason</span> <span word="enough">enough</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="investors">investors</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="make">make</span> <span word="any">any</span> <span word="drastic">drastic</span> <span word="moves">moves</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="portfolios">portfolios</span>. <span word="But">But</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="profit">profit</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="avoiding">avoiding</span> <span word="stocks">stocks</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="suffered">suffered</span> <span word="pullbacks">pullbacks</span>, <span word="say">say</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="analysts">analysts</span>.</p>
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