研究:简单策略创造真实价值
<p><span word="When">When</span> <span word="James">James</span> <span word="Tobin">Tobin</span> <span word="won">won</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Nobel">Nobel</span> <span word="memorial">memorial</span> <span word="prize">prize</span> <span word="in">in</span> 1981, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="journalist">journalist</span> <span word="asked">asked</span> <span word="him">him</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="summarise">summarise</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="research">research</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="simple">simple</span> <span word="language">language</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="great">great</span> <span word="macroeconomist">macroeconomist</span> <span word="attempted">attempted</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="respond">respond</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="challenge">challenge</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="wire">wire</span> <span word="service">service</span> <span word="dutifully">dutifully</span> <span word="reported">reported</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="Professor">Professor</span> <span word="Tobin">Tobin</span> <span word="had">had</span> <span word="won">won</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="prize">prize</span> "<span word="for">for</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="work">work</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="principle">principle</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="putting">putting</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="your">your</span> <span word="eggs">eggs</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="basket">basket</span>".</p><p>当詹姆斯•托宾(<span word="James">James</span> <span word="Tobin">Tobin</span>)获得1981年诺贝尔(<span word="Nobel">Nobel</span>)经济学奖时，一名记者请他用简单通俗的语言概括自己的研究内容。这位伟大的宏观经济学家尝试回应了这一挑战，对此一家通讯社进行了忠实的报道，称"托宾教授凭借对‘不要将所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里'理论的研究获得了诺贝尔经济学奖"。</p><p><span word="A">A</span> <span word="newspaper">newspaper</span> <span word="cartoon">cartoon</span> <span word="then">then</span> <span word="appeared">appeared</span> <span word="announcing">announcing</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="award">award</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="Nobel">Nobel</span> <span word="prize">prize</span> <span word="for">for</span> "<span word="an">an</span> <span word="apple">apple</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="day">day</span> <span word="keeps">keeps</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="doctor">doctor</span> <span word="away">away</span>".</p><p>随后一幅卡通画出现在了报纸上，画中宣称"每日一苹果，医生远离我"理论被授予诺贝尔奖。</p><p><span word="But">But</span> <span word="Tobin">Tobin</span> <span word="perhaps">perhaps</span> <span word="anticipated">anticipated</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="awkward">awkward</span> <span word="history">history</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Nobel">Nobel</span> <span word="memorial">memorial</span> <span word="prize">prize</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="economics">economics</span>. <span word="Robert">Robert</span> <span word="Merton">Merton</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Myron">Myron</span> <span word="Scholes">Scholes</span> <span word="won">won</span> <span word="in">in</span> 1997 <span word="for">for</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="work">work</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="option">option</span> <span word="pricing">pricing</span> – <span word="less">less</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="year">year</span> <span word="before">before</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="dramatic">dramatic</span> <span word="bailout">bailout</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Long">Long</span>-<span word="Term">Term</span> <span word="Capital">Capital</span> <span word="Management">Management</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="hedge">hedge</span> <span word="fund">fund</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="which">which</span> <span word="Merton">Merton</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Scholes">Scholes</span> <span word="were">were</span> <span word="closely">closely</span> <span word="involved">involved</span>.</p><p>但托宾或许已经预见了诺贝尔奖在金融经济学领域将要出现的一系列尴尬。1997年，罗伯特•默顿(<span word="Robert">Robert</span> <span word="Merton">Merton</span>)和迈伦•斯克尔斯(<span word="Myron">Myron</span> <span word="Scholes">Scholes</span>)凭借在期权定价领域的研究成果获得诺贝尔经济学奖，此后不到一年默顿和斯克尔斯担任合伙人的对冲基金长期资本管理公司(<span word="Long">Long</span>-<span word="Term">Term</span> <span word="Capital">Capital</span> <span word="Management">Management</span>)就受到了戏剧性的救助。</p>
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