经济学家担忧中国信贷增长
<p><span word="There">There</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="no">no</span> <span word="question">question</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="China">China</span> <span word="significantly">significantly</span> <span word="increased">increased</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="leverage">leverage</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="economy">economy</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="counter">counter</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="crisis">crisis</span>. <span word="A">A</span> <span word="surge">surge</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="credit">credit</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="single">single</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="important">important</span> <span word="part">part</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="government">government</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="vaunted">vaunted</span> <span word="stimulus">stimulus</span> <span word="programme">programme</span>: <span word="new">new</span> <span word="lending">lending</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="state">state</span>-<span word="owned">owned</span> <span word="banks">banks</span> <span word="from">from</span> 2008-10 <span word="was">was</span> <span word="about">about</span> 60 <span word="percent">percent</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="gross">gross</span> <span word="domestic">domestic</span> <span word="product">product</span>.</p><p>毫无疑问，为了应对全球金融危机，中国大幅提高了经济中的杠杆。信贷激增构成了政府高调刺激方案的最重要组成部分：2008年到2010年，国有银行新增贷款约为国内生产总值(<span word="GDP">GDP</span>)的60%。</p><p><span word="Some">Some</span> <span word="economists">economists</span> <span word="say">say</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="less">less</span> <span word="concerned">concerned</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="leverage">leverage</span> <span word="China">China</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="speed">speed</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="rise">rise</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="China">China</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="leverage">leverage</span>.</p><p>一些经济学家表示，相比中国的杠杆规模，他们更加担忧的是中国杠杆增加的速度。</p><p><span word="UBS">UBS</span> <span word="economist">economist</span> <span word="Wang">Wang</span> <span word="Tao">Tao</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="noted">noted</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="increase">increase</span> <span word="of">of</span> 40 <span word="percentage">percentage</span> <span word="points">points</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="country">country</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="credit">credit</span>-<span word="to">to</span>-<span word="GDP">GDP</span> <span word="ratio">ratio</span> <span word="over">over</span> <span word="five">five</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="correlates">correlates</span> <span word="very">very</span> <span word="well">well</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="crises">crises</span>. <span word="In">In</span> <span word="China">China</span>, <span word="there">there</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="increase">increase</span> <span word="of">of</span> 40 <span word="percentage">percentage</span> <span word="points">points</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="past">past</span> <span word="three">three</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="alone">alone</span>.</p><p>瑞银(<span word="UBS">UBS</span>)经济学家汪涛指出，一个国家的信贷与<span word="GDP">GDP</span>比率在五年之内增长40个百分点，通常与金融危机有很大关联。而在中国，仅过去三年这一比率就增长了40个百分点。</p><p><span word="This">This</span> "<span word="needs">needs</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="stop">stop</span> <span word="soon">soon</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="reverse">reverse</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="coming">coming</span> <span word="few">few</span> <span word="years">years</span>," <span word="she">she</span> <span word="says">says</span>. <span word="For">For</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="government">government</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="follow">follow</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="path">path</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="sustainable">sustainable</span> <span word="growth">growth</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="should">should</span> <span word="ensure">ensure</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="banking">banking</span> <span word="sector">sector</span> <span word="credit">credit</span> <span word="grows">grows</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="less">less</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="nominal">nominal</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span>, <span word="she">she</span> <span word="adds">adds</span>.</p>
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