中国预算里的隐形赤字
<p><span word="Dream">Dream</span> <span word="on">on</span>, <span word="Athens">Athens</span>. <span word="When">When</span> <span word="Beijing">Beijing</span> <span word="presented">presented</span> <span word="its">its</span> 2017 <span word="budget">budget</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="week">week</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="main">main</span> <span word="concern">concern</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="investors">investors</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="government">government</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="going">going</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="run">run</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="big">big</span> <span word="enough">enough</span> <span word="deficit">deficit</span>. 希腊人做梦也不敢想，中国政府本周发布2017年预算时，投资者的主要担忧竟是——政府的预算赤字不够大。</p><p><span word="But">But</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="closer">closer</span> <span word="look">look</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="spending">spending</span> <span word="plan">plan</span> <span word="reveals">reveals</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="China">China</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="couple">couple</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="accounting">accounting</span> <span word="tricks">tricks</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="sleeve">sleeve</span>: <span word="its">its</span> <span word="true">true</span> <span word="deficit">deficit</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="likely">likely</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="quite">quite</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="bit">bit</span> <span word="larger">larger</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="finance">finance</span> <span word="ministry">ministry</span> <span word="claimed">claimed</span>. 但更细致地阅读这份预算草案，就会发现中国政府偷偷运用了一些会计技巧。中国真正的赤字规模可能比财政部声称的数字大很多。</p><p><span word="Before">Before</span> <span word="delving">delving</span> <span word="into">into</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="numbers">numbers</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="worth">worth</span> <span word="emphasising">emphasising</span> <span word="why">why</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="bigger">bigger</span> <span word="deficit">deficit</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="China">China</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="actually">actually</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="good">good</span> <span word="thing">thing</span>, <span word="both">both</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="short">short</span> <span word="term">term</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="long">long</span> <span word="term">term</span>. 探究具体数字之前，我们有必要强调一下，为什么中国扩大财政赤字规模，无论从长期还是短期来看，其实是件好事。</p><p><span word="This">This</span> <span word="year">year</span>, <span word="with">with</span> <span word="exporters">exporters</span> <span word="facing">facing</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="headwinds">headwinds</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="domestic">domestic</span> <span word="property">property</span> <span word="market">market</span> <span word="dipping">dipping</span>, <span word="Chinese">Chinese</span> <span word="growth">growth</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="bound">bound</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="slow">slow</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="question">question</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="whether">whether</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="government">government</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="able">able</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="ensure">ensure</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="slowdown">slowdown</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="moderate">moderate</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="sharp">sharp</span>. 今年，中国出口部门在全球市场面临巨大压力，国内房地产市场也转冷，中国经济增长势必放缓。因此问题就成了政府能否确保经济放缓过程是温和的，而不会太过剧烈。</p>
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