过度自信者更易成功
<p><span word="They">They</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="regularly">regularly</span> <span word="accused">accused</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="being">being</span> <span word="too">too</span> <span word="confident">confident</span> – <span word="even">even</span> <span word="cocky">cocky</span>– <span word="but">but</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="highest">highest</span> <span word="achievers">achievers</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="often">often</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="those">those</span> <span word="who">who</span> <span word="over">over</span>-<span word="rate">rate</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="ability">ability</span>.</p><p>他们经常因为太过自信甚至自负而遭到指责，然而成就最高的人往往是那些过高估计自身能力的人。</p><p><span word="Now">Now</span> <span word="researchers">researchers</span> <span word="believe">believe</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="discovered">discovered</span>, <span word="for">for</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="first">first</span> <span word="time">time</span>, <span word="why">why</span> <span word="humans">humans</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="false">false</span> <span word="sense">sense</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="optimism">optimism</span>.</p><p>研究人员认为他们现在已经首度发现为什么人类会有过度乐观的心理。</p><p><span word="Computer">Computer</span> <span word="led">led</span> <span word="simulations">simulations</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="shown">shown</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="overconfidence">overconfidence</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="aspects">aspects</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="life">life</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="often">often</span> <span word="improve">improve</span> <span word="your">your</span> <span word="chances">chances</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="winning">winning</span>.</p><p>电脑操纵的模拟实验显示，在生活中各个方面，过分自信经常能够增加获胜的几率。</p><p><span word="For">For</span> <span word="many">many</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="scientists">scientists</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="divided">divided</span> <span word="over">over</span> <span word="whether">whether</span> <span word="overconfidence">overconfidence</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="good">good</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="bad">bad</span> <span word="thing">thing</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="why">why</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="existed">existed</span>.</p><p>多年以来，科学家对于过分自信是好事还是坏事以及为何会有这种心理一直存在分歧。</p><p>‘<span word="There">There</span> <span word="hasn">hasn</span>'<span word="t">t</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="good">good</span> <span word="explanation">explanation</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="why">why</span> <span word="we">we</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="overconfident">overconfident</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="model">model</span> <span word="offers">offers</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="kind">kind</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="evolutionary">evolutionary</span> <span word="logic">logic</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="that">that</span>. <span word="It">It</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="unlikely">unlikely</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="accident">accident</span>—<span word="we">we</span>'<span word="re">re</span> <span word="perhaps">perhaps</span> <span word="overconfident">overconfident</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="good">good</span> <span word="reason">reason</span>,’ <span word="said">said</span> <span word="Dr">Dr</span> <span word="Dominic">Dominic</span> <span word="Johnson">Johnson</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="University">University</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Edinburgh">Edinburgh</span>.</p><p>爱丁堡大学的多米尼克 强森博士说：“一直以来人们都无法较好地解释为什么我们会过度自信，这一新模拟实验为其提供了一种进化上的理由。这种心理不大可能是意外，我们会过度自信，或许是有合理的原因的。”</p>
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