科学家预言奥巴马即将身陷丑闻
<p><span word="President">President</span> <span word="Obama">Obama</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="administration">administration</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="set">set</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="rocked">rocked</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="scandal">scandal</span> - <span word="at">at</span> <span word="least">least</span>, <span word="according">according</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="political">political</span> <span word="scientist">scientist</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="mathematical">mathematical</span> <span word="formula">formula</span>。</p><p><span word="A">A</span> <span word="newly">newly</span>-<span word="released">released</span> <span word="report">report</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="scholar">scholar</span> <span word="Brendan">Brendan</span> <span word="Nyhan">Nyhan</span> <span word="predicts">predicts</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="reputation">reputation</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> 44<span word="th">th</span> <span word="US">US</span> <span word="president">president</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="soon">soon</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="marred">marred</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="controversy">controversy</span>。</p><p><span word="Where">Where</span> <span word="Are">Are</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Obama">Obama</span> <span word="Scandals">Scandals</span>? <span word="calls">calls</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="odds">odds</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="scandal">scandal</span> '<span word="high">high</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="rising">rising</span>' <span word="after">after</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="office">office</span>, <span word="based">based</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="interpretation">interpretation</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="presidential">presidential</span> <span word="scandals">scandals</span> <span word="between">between</span> 1977 <span word="and">and</span> 2008.</p><p>科学家预言奥巴马即将身陷丑闻</p><p><span word="Nyhan">Nyhan</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="scholar">scholar</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="University">University</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Michigan">Michigan</span>, <span word="released">released</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="report">report</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="website">website</span> <span word="Center">Center</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="Politics">Politics</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="Thursday">Thursday</span>。</p><p><span word="Serving">Serving</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="guest">guest</span> <span word="columnist">columnist</span>, <span word="he">he</span> <span word="presented">presented</span> <span word="detailed">detailed</span> <span word="graphs">graphs</span> <span word="illustrating">illustrating</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="likelihood">likelihood</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="scandal">scandal</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="unfold">unfold</span> <span word="before">before</span> <span word="the">the</span> 2017 <span word="presidential">presidential</span> <span word="election">election</span> - <span word="rising">rising</span> <span word="between">between</span> 95 <span word="and">and</span> 100 <span word="per">per</span> <span word="cent">cent</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="June">June</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="next">next</span> <span word="year">year</span>。</p><p><span word="The">The</span> <span word="report">report</span> <span word="reads">reads</span>: '<span word="Obama">Obama</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="extremely">extremely</span> <span word="fortunate">fortunate</span>: <span word="My">My</span> <span word="research">research</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="presidential">presidential</span> <span word="scandals">scandals</span> <span word="shows">shows</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="few">few</span> <span word="presidents">presidents</span> <span word="avoid">avoid</span> <span word="scandal">scandal</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="long">long</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="he">he</span> <span word="has">has</span>.'</p><p><span word="He">He</span> <span word="tested">tested</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="hypotheses">hypotheses</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="scandal">scandal</span> <span word="coverage">coverage</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="Washington">Washington</span> <span word="Post">Post</span> <span word="news">news</span> <span word="reports">reports</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="chronologies">chronologies</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="presidential">presidential</span> <span word="events">events</span> <span word="covered">covered</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="New">New</span> <span word="York">York</span> <span word="Times">Times</span>。</p><p>'<span word="In">In</span> <span word="the">the</span> 1977-2008 <span word="period">period</span>,' <span word="he">he</span> <span word="wrote">wrote</span>, '<span word="the">the</span> <span word="longest">longest</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="president">president</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="gone">gone</span> <span word="without">without</span> <span word="having">having</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="scandal">scandal</span> <span word="featured">featured</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="front">front</span>-<span word="page">page</span> <span word="Washington">Washington</span> <span word="Post">Post</span> <span word="article">article</span> <span word="is">is</span> 34 <span word="months">months</span> - <span word="the">the</span> <span word="period">period</span> <span word="between">between</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="President">President</span> <span word="Bush">Bush</span> <span word="took">took</span> <span word="office">office</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="January">January</span> 2001 <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Valerie">Valerie</span> <span word="Plame">Plame</span> <span word="scandal">scandal</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="October">October</span> 2003.'</p>
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