从日美贸易摩擦看中美贸易发展趋势
<p>当前，中美贸易摩擦愈演愈烈，美方对中方输美商品加征关税的范围从500亿美元增加到2500亿美元，并威胁要扩大到全部输美中国商品。日前，美国副总统彭斯又发表讲话，指责中国的社会经济发展模式。中美贸易摩擦正由贸易领域向整个中美经济关系乃至政治军事关系延伸。中美贸易摩擦将走向何处，将如何影响中美关系未来长远的发展，值得我们认真观察。与中美贸易摩擦类似，从1968年到1996年，日美贸易摩擦持续了近30年。对照日美贸易摩擦进程，对中美贸易摩擦的发展趋势我们会得出一些方向性启示。</p><p><span word="China">China</span>-<span word="US">US</span> <span word="trade">trade</span> <span word="tensions">tensions</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="intensifying">intensifying</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="US">US</span> <span word="threatens">threatens</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="ratchet">ratchet</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="pressure">pressure</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="imposing">imposing</span> $200 <span word="billion">billion</span> <span word="tariffs">tariffs</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="Chinese">Chinese</span> <span word="imports">imports</span>. <span word="A">A</span> <span word="few">few</span> <span word="weeks">weeks</span> <span word="ago">ago</span>, <span word="Vice">Vice</span> <span word="President">President</span> <span word="Pence">Pence</span> <span word="lashed">lashed</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="China">China</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="development">development</span> <span word="model">model</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="speech">speech</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="widely">widely</span> <span word="interpreted">interpreted</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="sign">sign</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="ongoing">ongoing</span> <span word="trade">trade</span> <span word="tensions">tensions</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="extend">extend</span> <span word="into">into</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="political">political</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="military">military</span> <span word="arenas">arenas</span>. <span word="It">It</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="question">question</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="every">every</span> <span word="one">one</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="mind">mind</span> — <span word="Where">Where</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="China">China</span>-<span word="US">US</span> <span word="trade">trade</span> <span word="relations">relations</span> <span word="heading">heading</span>? <span word="In">In</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="from">from</span> 1968 <span word="to">to</span> 1996, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="trade">trade</span> <span word="war">war</span> <span word="between">between</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="US">US</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Japan">Japan</span> <span word="went">went</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="for">for</span> 30 <span word="years">years</span>. <span word="It">It</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="well">well</span> <span word="shed">shed</span> <span word="light">light</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="China">China</span>-<span word="US">US</span> <span word="trade">trade</span> <span word="dispute">dispute</span>.</p>
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