私人股本行业勿乐极生悲
<p><span word="There">There</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="few">few</span> <span word="surer">surer</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="warnings">warnings</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="Stephen">Stephen</span> <span word="Schwarzman">Schwarzman</span>, <span word="co">co</span>-<span word="founder">founder</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="private">private</span> <span word="equity">equity</span> <span word="group">group</span> <span word="Blackstone">Blackstone</span>, <span word="throwing">throwing</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="big">big</span> <span word="party">party</span>. <span word="His">His</span> 60<span word="th">th</span> <span word="birthday">birthday</span> <span word="celebration">celebration</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="decade">decade</span> <span word="ago">ago</span> <span word="marked">marked</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="pre">pre</span>-<span word="crisis">crisis</span> <span word="peak">peak</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="industry">industry</span>, <span word="so">so</span> <span word="the">the</span> 70<span word="th">th</span> <span word="he">he</span> <span word="held">held</span> <span word="last">last</span> <span word="month">month</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Palm">Palm</span> <span word="Beach">Beach</span>, <span word="Florida">Florida</span>, <span word="featuring">featuring</span> <span word="fireworks">fireworks</span>, <span word="camels">camels</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="cake">cake</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="shape">shape</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="Chinese">Chinese</span> <span word="temple">temple</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="worrying">worrying</span>.</p><p>再没有比私人股本集团黑石(<span word="Blackstone">Blackstone</span>)联合创始人苏世民(<span word="Stephen">Stephen</span> <span word="Schwarzman">Schwarzman</span>)举办的大派对更明确的金融警告了。10年前，他的60岁生日庆祝会标志着危机之前私人股本行业的顶峰，所以上个月他在弗罗里达州棕榈海滩(<span word="Palm">Palm</span> <span word="Beach">Beach</span>)举办的70岁生日庆祝会——有烟火、骆驼、中国寺庙形状的蛋糕——也就令人担忧了。</p><p><span word="Private">Private</span> <span word="equity">equity</span> <span word="entered">entered</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="slump">slump</span> <span word="after">after</span> <span word="his">his</span> 2007 <span word="party">party</span>, <span word="with">with</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="huge">huge</span> <span word="debt">debt</span>-<span word="financed">financed</span> <span word="deals">deals</span> <span word="struck">struck</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="peak">peak</span> <span word="looking">looking</span> <span word="stupid">stupid</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="hindsight">hindsight</span>. <span word="Ten">Ten</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="later">later</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="doing">doing</span> <span word="extremely">extremely</span> <span word="well">well</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="itself">itself</span>.</p><p>2007年庆祝会之后，私人股本行业进入了一段低迷期，回想起来，之前巅峰时期靠着巨额债务融资达成的交易看起来很愚蠢。10年后，这个行业本身过得很不错。</p>
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