Black swans
<p><span word="Reader">Reader</span> <span word="question">question</span>:</p><p><span word="Please">Please</span> <span word="explain">explain</span> <span word="why">why</span> “‘<span word="Black">Black</span> <span word="Swan">Swan</span>’ <span word="event">event</span>” <span word="in">in</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="passage">passage</span> (<span word="Thinking">Thinking</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Unthinkable">Unthinkable</span>: <span word="What">What</span> <span word="if">if</span> <span word="China">China</span> <span word="Devalues">Devalues</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Renminbi">Renminbi</span>? <span word="Global">Global</span> <span word="Research">Research</span>, <span word="February">February</span> 19, 2010):</p><p><span word="Reducing">Reducing</span> <span word="investment">investment</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="exports">exports</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="create">create</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="severe">severe</span> <span word="recession">recession</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="China">China</span>. <span word="China">China</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="gone">gone</span> <span word="too">too</span> <span word="far">far</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="time">time</span>. <span word="They">They</span> <span word="appear">appear</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="box">box</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="others">others</span> <span word="don">don</span>’<span word="t">t</span> <span word="recognize">recognize</span>. <span word="The">The</span> “<span word="Black">Black</span> <span word="Swan">Swan</span>” <span word="event">event</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="year">year</span>, <span word="as">as</span> <span word="far">far</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="China">China</span> <span word="true">true</span> <span word="believers">believers</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="concerned">concerned</span>, <span word="could">could</span> <span word="well">well</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="devaluation">devaluation</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="RMB">RMB</span>. <span word="Were">Were</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="happen">happen</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="political">political</span> <span word="consequences">consequences</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="significant">significant</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="economic">economic</span>.</p><p><span word="My">My</span> <span word="comments">comments</span>:</p><p><span word="Here">Here</span>, <span word="Black">Black</span> <span word="Swans">Swans</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="obviously">obviously</span> <span word="nothing">nothing</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="do">do</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="birds">birds</span>, <span word="but">but</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="business">business</span> <span word="jargon">jargon</span> <span word="referring">referring</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="extreme">extreme</span>, <span word="unpredictable">unpredictable</span> <span word="events">events</span>, <span word="such">such</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="subprime">subprime</span> <span word="crisis">crisis</span> <span word="in">in</span> 2008 <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> 2001 <span word="terrorist">terrorist</span> <span word="attacks">attacks</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="World">World</span> <span word="Trade">Trade</span> <span word="Center">Center</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="New">New</span> <span word="York">York</span>.</p><p><span word="Nassim">Nassim</span> <span word="Taleb">Taleb</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="Lebanon">Lebanon</span>-<span word="born">born</span> <span word="writer">writer</span>, <span word="scientist">scientist</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="businessman">businessman</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="credited">credited</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="coining">coining</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="term">term</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="book">book</span> <span word="The">The</span> <span word="Black">Black</span> <span word="Swan">Swan</span>: <span word="The">The</span> <span word="Impact">Impact</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Highly">Highly</span> <span word="Improbable">Improbable</span>.</p><p><span word="A">A</span> <span word="summary">summary</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="book">book</span> <span word="explains">explains</span> <span word="how">how</span> “<span word="black">black</span> <span word="swans">swans</span>” <span word="came">came</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="represent">represent</span> <span word="unpredictable">unpredictable</span> <span word="events">events</span> (<span word="SqueezedBooks">SqueezedBooks</span>.<span word="com">com</span>):</p><p><span word="The">The</span> <span word="idea">idea</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="black">black</span> <span word="swan">swan</span> <span word="refers">refers</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="fact">fact</span> <span word="that">that</span>, <span word="prior">prior</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="discovery">discovery</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Australia">Australia</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="assumed">assumed</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="swans">swans</span> <span word="were">were</span> <span word="white">white</span>, <span word="because">because</span> <span word="no">no</span> <span word="one">one</span> (<span word="well">well</span>, <span word="no">no</span> <span word="European">European</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="least">least</span>) <span word="had">had</span> <span word="ever">ever</span> <span word="seen">seen</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="black">black</span> <span word="swan">swan</span>. <span word="However">However</span>, <span word="they">they</span> <span word="do">do</span> <span word="exist">exist</span>.</p><p><span word="However">However</span>, <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="book">book</span>, <span word="a">a</span> “<span word="black">black</span> <span word="swan">swan</span>” <span word="refers">refers</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="any">any</span> <span word="event">event</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="rare">rare</span>, <span word="has">has</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="extreme">extreme</span> <span word="impact">impact</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="explainable">explainable</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="predictable">predictable</span> - <span word="but">but</span> <span word="only">only</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="hindsight">hindsight</span>.</p>
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