影响选民的“推手民调”
<p> 距离美国大选日还有不到一个月的时间，两党候选人在辩论中使出各种招数突出自己、诋毁对方。据说，从上世纪90年代中期开始，美国大选过程中就开始出现一些以影响民意为目的的民调，英文叫做<span word="push">push</span> <span word="poll">poll</span>。</p><p> </p><p> <span word="Push">Push</span> <span word="poll">poll</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="opinion">opinion</span> <span word="poll">poll</span> <span word="whose">whose</span> <span word="real">real</span> <span word="purpose">purpose</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="influence">influence</span> <span word="people">people</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="opinions">opinions</span> <span word="rather">rather</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="collect">collect</span> <span word="information">information</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="them">them</span>.</p><p> <span word="Push">Push</span> <span word="poll">poll</span>指以民调之名行影响民意之实的民意调查，这种调查的真正目的不是收集人们的意见，而是影响人们的看法，即“推手民调”。</p><p> <span word="In">In</span> <span word="essence">essence</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="push">push</span> <span word="poll">poll</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="something">something</span> <span word="approaching">approaching</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="smear">smear</span> <span word="campaign">campaign</span> <span word="masquerading">masquerading</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="opinion">opinion</span> <span word="poll">poll</span>. <span word="A">A</span> <span word="push">push</span> <span word="poll">poll</span> <span word="typically">typically</span> <span word="involves">involves</span> <span word="phoning">phoning</span> <span word="very">very</span> <span word="large">large</span> <span word="numbers">numbers</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="voters">voters</span> <span word="and">and</span>, <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="guise">guise</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="doing">doing</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="survey">survey</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="find">find</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="certain">certain</span> <span word="pieces">pieces</span> <span word="of">of</span> '<span word="information">information</span>' <span word="may">may</span> <span word="affect">affect</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="voting">voting</span> <span word="preferences">preferences</span>, <span word="feeding">feeding</span> <span word="them">them</span> <span word="false">false</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="damaging">damaging</span> <span word="information">information</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="particular">particular</span> <span word="candidate">candidate</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="idea">idea</span> <span word="then">then</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="to">to</span> '<span word="push">push</span>' <span word="them">them</span> <span word="away">away</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="any">any</span> <span word="rival">rival</span> <span word="candidate">candidate</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="steer">steer</span> <span word="them">them</span> <span word="towards">towards</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="candidate">candidate</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="caller">caller</span> <span word="supports">supports</span>.</p><p> 从本质上来看，“推手民调”更像是伪装成民意调查的“抹黑大战（<span word="smear">smear</span> <span word="campaign">campaign</span>）”。这种调查通常会电话联络大量的选民，假装调查哪些“信息”会影响选民的投票决定，而在此过程中向选民灌输有关某个候选人的虚假或破坏性信息。这样做的目的是将选民从竞争对手那里“推开”，转而支持调查方这边的候选人。</p>
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