判断股市行情的“裙摆指数”
<p> 原来看过一篇报道，说是女性高跟鞋的高度可以反应经济形势。最近又发现一个新的理论叫“裙摆指数”，说女性裙子的长度也能反应经济形势。裙子越短，经济形势越好。照这么说，现在满大街都是短裙，咱们的经济一定是很不错喽？</p><p> </p><p> <span word="The">The</span> <span word="Hemline">Hemline</span> <span word="Index">Index</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="theory">theory</span> <span word="presented">presented</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="economist">economist</span> <span word="George">George</span> <span word="Taylor">Taylor</span> <span word="in">in</span> 1926. <span word="It">It</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="idea">idea</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="suggests">suggests</span> <span word="women">women</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="hemlines">hemlines</span> <span word="fluctuate">fluctuate</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="even">even</span> <span word="indicate">indicate</span> <span word="macroeconomic">macroeconomic</span> <span word="performance">performance</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="higher">higher</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="hemline">hemline</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="better">better</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="economy">economy</span> <span word="looks">looks</span>.</p><p> 裙摆指数（<span word="hemline">hemline</span> <span word="index">index</span>）是由经济学家乔治•泰勒在1926年推出的一种理论。这种理论认为女性裙摆长度变化能够预测宏观经济的走向。裙子越短，经济形势越好。</p><p> <span word="The">The</span> <span word="theory">theory</span> <span word="suggests">suggests</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="hemlines">hemlines</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="women">women</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="dresses">dresses</span> <span word="rise">rise</span> <span word="along">along</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="stock">stock</span> <span word="prices">prices</span>. <span word="In">In</span> <span word="good">good</span> <span word="economies">economies</span>, <span word="we">we</span> <span word="get">get</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="results">results</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="miniskirts">miniskirts</span> (<span word="as">as</span> <span word="seen">seen</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> 1960<span word="s">s</span>), <span word="or">or</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="poor">poor</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="times">times</span>, <span word="as">as</span> <span word="shown">shown</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="the">the</span> 1929 <span word="Wall">Wall</span> <span word="Street">Street</span> <span word="Crash">Crash</span>, <span word="hems">hems</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="drop">drop</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="ankle">ankle</span> <span word="almost">almost</span> <span word="overnight">overnight</span>.</p><p> 裙摆理论认为，女士们裙摆的长度是跟着股票价格波动的。经济状况好的时候，满大街都是超短裙（比如上世纪60年代）；而经济不景气的时候，比如1929年的华尔街大衰退，裙摆可以在一夜之间长及脚踝。</p><p> <span word="Most">Most</span> <span word="designers">designers</span> <span word="mirror">mirror</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="viewpoint">viewpoint</span>, <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="economy">economy</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="little">little</span> <span word="effect">effect</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="what">what</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="present">present</span>. <span word="But">But</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="hard">hard</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="argue">argue</span>, <span word="when">when</span> <span word="designers">designers</span> <span word="almost">almost</span> <span word="unanimously">unanimously</span> <span word="moved">moved</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="black">black</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="neutral">neutral</span> <span word="color">color</span> <span word="palette">palette</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="Lehman">Lehman</span> <span word="Brothers">Brothers</span> <span word="failed">failed</span>.</p>
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