阿拉伯之春还是阿拉伯革命
历史上有多少革命是“成功的”？有多少场革命带来了长久而稳定的政治新格局？这两个有趣的学术问题，正在美国国防与外交部门内引发新的辩论，尤其是就中东问题而言。<span word="Two">Two</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="ago">ago</span>, <span word="when">when</span> <span word="tumultuous">tumultuous</span> <span word="change">change</span> <span word="swept">swept</span> <span word="across">across</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="region">region</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="common">common</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="refer">refer</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="events">events</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="the">the</span> “<span word="Arab">Arab</span> <span word="spring">spring</span>”. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="sight">sight</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="young">young</span> <span word="crowds">crowds</span> <span word="congregating">congregating</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="streets">streets</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Cairo">Cairo</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="Tunis">Tunis</span> <span word="seemed">seemed</span> <span word="inspiring">inspiring</span>. <span word="It">It</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="easy">easy</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="us">us</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="cheer">cheer</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="least">least</span> <span word="post">post</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="message">message</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="support">support</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="Twitter">Twitter</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="Facebook">Facebook</span>.两年前，剧变席卷中东时，人们通常称其为“阿拉伯之春”。当时，在开罗或突尼斯，一群群年轻人走上街头，那情景看上去激动人心。那时，我们大家很容易欢呼事件的发生，或至少在<span word="Twitter">Twitter</span>或<span word="Facebook">Facebook</span>上发条信息、以示支持。<span word="These">These</span> <span word="days">days</span>, <span word="some">some</span> <span word="key">key</span> <span word="US">US</span> <span word="leaders">leaders</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="quietly">quietly</span> <span word="made">made</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="subtle">subtle</span> <span word="linguistic">linguistic</span> <span word="shift">shift</span>. <span word="Instead">Instead</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="talking">talking</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="the">the</span> “<span word="Arab">Arab</span> <span word="spring">spring</span>”, <span word="they">they</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="discussing">discussing</span> <span word="the">the</span> “<span word="Arab">Arab</span> <span word="revolution">revolution</span>(<span word="s">s</span>)”. <span word="And">And</span> <span word="while">while</span> <span word="that">that</span> “<span word="r">r</span>” <span word="word">word</span> <span word="might">might</span> <span word="sound">sound</span> <span word="hopeful">hopeful</span> <span word="too">too</span>, <span word="there">there</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="crucial">crucial</span> <span word="catch">catch</span>. “<span word="If">If</span> <span word="you">you</span> <span word="look">look</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="revolutions">revolutions</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="history">history</span> - <span word="say">say</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="American">American</span>, <span word="Russian">Russian</span>, <span word="French">French</span>, <span word="Chinese">Chinese</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="Cuban">Cuban</span> - <span word="there">there</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="perhaps">perhaps</span> <span word="only">only</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="turned">turned</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="well">well</span>: <span word="America">America</span>,” <span word="a">a</span> <span word="Washington">Washington</span> <span word="grandee">grandee</span> <span word="declared">declared</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="high">high</span>-<span word="powered">powered</span> <span word="group">group</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="business">business</span> <span word="leaders">leaders</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="policy">policy</span> <span word="officials">officials</span> <span word="earlier">earlier</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="month">month</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Aspen">Aspen</span>. <span word="Thus">Thus</span>, <span word="if">if</span> <span word="the">the</span> “<span word="normal">normal</span>” <span word="course">course</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="history">history</span> <span word="plays">plays</span> <span word="out">out</span>, <span word="he">he</span> <span word="added">added</span>, <span word="then">then</span> “<span word="we">we</span> <span word="had">had</span> <span word="better">better</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="planning">planning</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="generation">generation</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="turmoil">turmoil</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="unrest">unrest</span>”. <span word="Far">Far</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="being">being</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="aberration">aberration</span>, <span word="in">in</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="words">words</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="current">current</span> <span word="mess">mess</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Egypt">Egypt</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="Syria">Syria</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="come">come</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="seem">seem</span> <span word="like">like</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="tragic">tragic</span> <span word="norm">norm</span> - <span word="or">or</span> <span word="so">so</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="new">new</span> “<span word="revolution">revolution</span>” <span word="argument">argument</span> <span word="goes">goes</span>.如今，美国一些关键领导人物悄悄地改了口。他们不再说“阿拉伯之春”，而开始说“阿拉伯革命”。虽然“革命”一词听起来也充满希望，但有一个重大隐患。上月初在阿斯彭(<span word="Aspen">Aspen</span>)，华盛顿一名显要人物面对一群位高权重的商界领袖和政策官员宣称：“如果你回顾一下史上历次革命，比如，美国、俄罗斯、法国、中国和古巴的革命，你会发现结局不错的或许只有一场，那就是美国革命。”因此，他补充道，如果情况按照“正常”的历史进程发展，那么“我们最好计划一下如何应对未来一代人时间里的混乱和动荡”。换句话说，埃及或叙利亚当前的混乱远非异常现象，而似乎是一种悲哀的正常现象。至少，这种新的“革命”论是这样认为的。<span word="Some">Some</span> <span word="non">non</span>-<span word="Americans">Americans</span> <span word="might">might</span> <span word="find">find</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="vision">vision</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="history">history</span> <span word="objectionably">objectionably</span> <span word="slanted">slanted</span>. <span word="For">For</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="thing">thing</span>, <span word="Americas">Americas</span> “<span word="revolution">revolution</span>” <span word="did">did</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="immediately">immediately</span> <span word="produce">produce</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="entirely">entirely</span> <span word="stable">stable</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="peaceful">peaceful</span> <span word="democracy">democracy</span>. <span word="Instead">Instead</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="eventually">eventually</span> <span word="delivered">delivered</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="very">very</span> <span word="violent">violent</span> <span word="civil">civil</span> <span word="war">war</span>. <span word="And">And</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="revolutions">revolutions</span> <span word="beyond">beyond</span> <span word="US">US</span> <span word="soil">soil</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="produced">produced</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="better">better</span> <span word="outcomes">outcomes</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="cynics">cynics</span> <span word="expected">expected</span>, <span word="if">if</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="always">always</span> <span word="entirely">entirely</span> <span word="peacefully">peacefully</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="collapse">collapse</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Berlin">Berlin</span> <span word="Wall">Wall</span> <span word="did">did</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="deliver">deliver</span> <span word="mass">mass</span> <span word="bloodshed">bloodshed</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="eastern">eastern</span> <span word="Europe">Europe</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="Baltic">Baltic</span> <span word="states">states</span> <span word="broke">broke</span> <span word="free">free</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="Russia">Russia</span> <span word="without">without</span> <span word="too">too</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="dramatic">dramatic</span> <span word="upheaval">upheaval</span> (<span word="a">a</span> <span word="development">development</span> <span word="I">I</span> <span word="remember">remember</span> <span word="only">only</span> <span word="too">too</span> <span word="well">well</span>, <span word="since">since</span> <span word="I">I</span> <span word="started">started</span> <span word="my">my</span> <span word="career">career</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="journalist">journalist</span> <span word="writing">writing</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="those">those</span> <span word="Baltic">Baltic</span> <span word="revolutions">revolutions</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="found">found</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="lack">lack</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="cataclysmic">cataclysmic</span> <span word="drama">drama</span> <span word="frustrating">frustrating</span>). <span word="And">And</span> <span word="if">if</span> <span word="you">you</span> <span word="want">want</span> <span word="another">another</span> <span word="reminder">reminder</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="history">history</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="sometimes">sometimes</span> <span word="deliver">deliver</span> <span word="pleasant">pleasant</span> <span word="surprises">surprises</span>, <span word="take">take</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="look">look</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="brilliant">brilliant</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="biopic">biopic</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Nelson">Nelson</span> <span word="Mandela">Mandela</span> <span word="being">being</span> <span word="released">released</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="UK">UK</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="January">January</span>: <span word="as">as</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="shows">shows</span>, <span word="the">the</span> “<span word="revolution">revolution</span>” <span word="that">that</span> <span word="took">took</span> <span word="place">place</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="South">South</span> <span word="Africa">Africa</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="almost">almost</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="extraordinary">extraordinary</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="anything">anything</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="occurred">occurred</span> <span word="inAmerica">inAmerica</span>. 在美国以外其他国家的人看来，这种历史观或许有失偏颇、令人反感。一方面，美国“革命”并未马上产生一个完全稳定、和平的民主制国家。相反，美国革命后来带来了一场极其暴力的内战。而美国之外的某些革命，即便过程不总是完全和平，其结果也大大好于怀疑者的预期。柏林墙(<span word="Berlin">Berlin</span> <span word="Wall">Wall</span>)的倒塌并未导致东欧发生大规模流血冲突。波罗的海国家脱离俄罗斯，也没有引发太剧烈的动荡（我清楚地记得这件事，因为我的记者生涯就始于报道波罗的海革命，而革命过程的平淡无奇让我很郁闷）。如果你还不相信历史有时会产生让人惊喜的结果，那你可以看看英国今年1月新推出的一部关于纳尔逊?曼德拉(<span word="Nelson">Nelson</span> <span word="Mandela">Mandela</span>)的精彩纪录片。影片表明，南非的“革命”跟美国革命一样了不起。<span word="But">But</span> <span word="irrespective">irrespective</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="what">what</span> <span word="you">you</span> <span word="think">think</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="individual">individual</span> <span word="revolutions">revolutions</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="crystal">crystal</span> <span word="clear">clear</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="new">new</span> “<span word="r">r</span>” <span word="word">word</span> <span word="poses">poses</span> <span word="big">big</span> <span word="problems">problems</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="Americas">Americas</span> <span word="establishment">establishment</span>, <span word="particularly">particularly</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Middle">Middle</span> <span word="East">East</span>. <span word="What">What</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="overlooked">overlooked</span> <span word="during">during</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="recent">recent</span> <span word="drama">drama</span> <span word="over">over</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="debt">debt</span> <span word="ceiling">ceiling</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="fiscal">fiscal</span> <span word="policy">policy</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="only">only</span> <span word="question">question</span> <span word="splitting">splitting</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="nation">nation</span>: <span word="the">the</span> <span word="political">political</span> <span word="world">world</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="now">now</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="deeply">deeply</span> <span word="divided">divided</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="what">what</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="should">should</span> <span word="do">do</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="foreign">foreign</span> <span word="policy">policy</span> - <span word="and">and</span> <span word="those">those</span> <span word="revolutions">revolutions</span>-<span word="cum">cum</span>-<span word="springs">springs</span>.但不管你怎么看待个别革命，新的“革命”一词明显对美国当局构成了重大问题，尤其是在中东地区。在最近的美国债务上限风波中，人们忽视了这样一个问题：财政政策不是唯一分裂美国的问题。在如何处理外交政策、以及阿拉伯革命（或曰阿拉伯之春）的问题上，美国政界如今也存在严重分歧。<span word="The">The</span> <span word="debate">debate</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="Aspen">Aspen</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="featured">featured</span> <span word="numerous">numerous</span> <span word="former">former</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="present">present</span> <span word="foreign">foreign</span> <span word="policy">policy</span> <span word="players">players</span>, <span word="illustrated">illustrated</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="split">split</span>. <span word="One">One</span> <span word="chunk">chunk</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="establishment">establishment</span> <span word="feels">feels</span> <span word="strongly">strongly</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="America">America</span> <span word="needs">needs</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="intervene">intervene</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="forcefully">forcefully</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Middle">Middle</span> <span word="East">East</span>, <span word="not">not</span> <span word="just">just</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="humanitarian">humanitarian</span> <span word="reasons">reasons</span> <span word="but">but</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="protect">protect</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="aspirations">aspirations</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="people">people</span> <span word="wanting">wanting</span> <span word="a">a</span> “<span word="revolution">revolution</span>” <span word="against">against</span> <span word="despotic">despotic</span> <span word="regimes">regimes</span> - <span word="and">and</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="prevent">prevent</span> <span word="extreme">extreme</span> <span word="versions">versions</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Islam">Islam</span> <span word="gaining">gaining</span> <span word="ground">ground</span>. <span word="But">But</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="parts">parts</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="establishment">establishment</span> <span word="feel">feel</span> <span word="equally">equally</span> <span word="strongly">strongly</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="madness">madness</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="get">get</span> <span word="involved">involved</span> - <span word="that">that</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="probably">probably</span> <span word="make">make</span> <span word="things">things</span> <span word="worse">worse</span>, <span word="particularly">particularly</span> <span word="given">given</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="sorry">sorry</span>, <span word="messy">messy</span> <span word="history">history</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="revolutions">revolutions</span>. “<span word="The">The</span> <span word="American">American</span> <span word="public">public</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="overwhelmed">overwhelmed</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="globalisation">globalisation</span>, <span word="they">they</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="war">war</span> <span word="weary">weary</span>,” <span word="complained">complained</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="former">former</span> <span word="military">military</span> <span word="leader">leader</span>.在阿斯彭，无数昔日和当今外交政策决策者的辩论凸显出这种分歧。当权者中有一派非常肯定地认为，美国必须加大对中东地区的干预力度，不仅仅是出于人道主义，还是为了保护人们想要揭竿而起、推翻暴政的愿望，以及为了防止伊斯兰极端势力得势。但当权者中另一派则同样肯定地认为，疯子才会去掺和中东问题——干预只会让局势变得更糟，尤其是有鉴于革命往往难逃悲剧和一团糟的结局。一名前军方领袖不满地说：“美国公众已经被全球化搞得焦头烂额，他们对战争感到厌烦。”<span word="Indeed">Indeed</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="only">only</span> <span word="thing">thing</span> <span word="upon">upon</span> <span word="which">which</span> <span word="everyone">everyone</span> <span word="agrees">agrees</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="current">current</span> <span word="fiscal">fiscal</span> <span word="fights">fights</span> <span word="make">make</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="policy">policy</span> <span word="options">options</span> <span word="far">far</span> <span word="worse">worse</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="undercutting">undercutting</span> <span word="US">US</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="power">power</span>, <span word="military">military</span> <span word="muscle">muscle</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="credibility">credibility</span>. <span word="Or">Or</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="policy">policy</span> <span word="grandee">grandee</span> <span word="thundered">thundered</span>: “<span word="The">The</span> <span word="biggest">biggest</span> <span word="threat">threat</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="national">national</span> <span word="security">security</span> <span word="today">today</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="what">what</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="happening">happening</span> <span word="elsewhere">elsewhere</span> [<span word="say">say</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Middle">Middle</span> <span word="East">East</span>] <span word="but">but</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="square">square</span> <span word="miles">miles</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Washington">Washington</span>.”确实，唯一得到每个人认同的一点是，当前围绕财政预算的争斗削弱了美国经济和军事实力、损害了美国的信誉，从而导致美国面临的政策选择形势大大恶化。或如一位政界大佬怒吼的那样：“眼下美国国家安全面临的最大威胁，不是正在别处发生的事情，而是正在华盛顿的两平方英里内发生的事情。”<span word="Such">Such</span> <span word="battles">battles</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="entirely">entirely</span> <span word="new">new</span>. <span word="In">In</span> <span word="the">the</span> 18<span word="th">th</span> <span word="century">century</span>, <span word="founding">founding</span> <span word="fathers">fathers</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="Alexander">Alexander</span> <span word="Hamilton">Hamilton</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Thomas">Thomas</span> <span word="Jefferson">Jefferson</span> <span word="argued">argued</span> <span word="bitterly">bitterly</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="whether">whether</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="support">support</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="French">French</span> <span word="revolution">revolution</span>. <span word="But">But</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="Jefferson">Jefferson</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="worrying">worrying</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="Paris">Paris</span>, <span word="America">America</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="minor">minor</span> <span word="player">player</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="world">world</span> <span word="stage">stage</span>. <span word="Today">Today</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span>. <span word="Either">Either</span> <span word="way">way</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="key">key</span> <span word="point">point</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="this">this</span>: <span word="the">the</span> <span word="next">next</span> <span word="time">time</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="American">American</span> <span word="politician">politician</span> <span word="talks">talks</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="tweets">tweets</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Middle">Middle</span> <span word="East">East</span>, <span word="watch">watch</span> <span word="if">if</span> <span word="that">that</span> “<span word="s">s</span>” <span word="word">word</span> - “<span word="spring">spring</span>” - <span word="crops">crops</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="if">if</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="controversial">controversial</span> “<span word="r">r</span>” <span word="word">word</span> <span word="appears">appears</span> <span word="instead">instead</span>. <span word="Subtle">Subtle</span> <span word="semantic">semantic</span> <span word="shifts">shifts</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="matter">matter</span> <span word="deeply">deeply</span> - <span word="particularly">particularly</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="barely">barely</span> <span word="noticed">noticed</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="all">all</span>.这样的争斗并不新鲜。18世纪，亚历山大?汉密尔顿(<span word="Alexander">Alexander</span> <span word="Hamilton">Hamilton</span>)和托马斯?杰斐逊(<span word="Thomas">Thomas</span> <span word="Jefferson">Jefferson</span>)等美国的开国之父，曾就是否应支持法国大革命展开激辩。但在杰斐逊操心巴黎的事情时，美国还只是世界舞台上的小角色。如今的美国，与那时大不相同。无论如何，问题的关键在于：下一次哪位美国政界人士谈论中东（或在<span word="Twitter">Twitter</span>上发有关中东的消息）时，留心观察他用的是阿拉伯之“春”、还是有争议性的“革命”一词。微妙的用词变化可能具有深远意义，尤其是在这种变化几乎完全无人注意到的时候。</p>
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