历史中东:新月沃土,富饶不再
中东地区气候干旱、土地贫瘠，但世界上孕育沃土的几大河流均发源于此，尼罗河就是其中之一。“底格里斯河—幼发拉底河”流域属世界之最，其河水流经“新月沃土”——昔日当地的农业发源地。如今两河却日渐枯竭，让人格外忧心。据美国科学期刊《水资源研究》的一项研究显示，2003至2009年间，土耳其东部至伊朗西部地区共失去了144立方千米的淡水。<span word="That">That</span> <span word="figure">figure</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="vast">vast</span>. <span word="It">It</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="equivalent">equivalent</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="volume">volume</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Dead">Dead</span> <span word="Sea">Sea</span> <span word="and">and</span>, <span word="according">according</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="study">study</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="senior">senior</span> <span word="author">author</span>, <span word="Jay">Jay</span> <span word="Famiglietti">Famiglietti</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="University">University</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="California">California</span>, <span word="Irvine">Irvine</span>, <span word="implies">implies</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="region">region</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="suffering">suffering</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="world">world</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="second">second</span>-<span word="fastest">fastest</span> <span word="rate">rate</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="water">water</span> <span word="depletion">depletion</span> <span word="after">after</span> <span word="northern">northern</span> <span word="India">India</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="water">water</span> <span word="table">table</span> <span word="sank">sank</span> <span word="by">by</span> 0.3 <span word="metres">metres</span> (<span word="one">one</span> <span word="foot">foot</span>) <span word="a">a</span> <span word="year">year</span> <span word="in">in</span> 2006-09. <span word="At">At</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="point">point</span> <span word="where">where</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Euphrates">Euphrates</span> <span word="crosses">crosses</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="Syria">Syria</span> <span word="into">into</span> <span word="Iraq">Iraq</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="now">now</span> <span word="flows">flows</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="only">only</span> 70% <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="rate">rate</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="once">once</span> <span word="did">did</span>. <span word="All">All</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="area">area</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="already">already</span> <span word="faces">faces</span> <span word="severe">severe</span> <span word="water">water</span> <span word="shortages">shortages</span>.这相当于一个死海的容量，数字十分庞大。据该研究的指导作者——加州大学欧文分校的简?费米格利提（<span word="Jay">Jay</span> <span word="Famiglietti">Famiglietti</span>）所示，如今该地区的水资源耗竭速度仅次于印度北部地区，为世界第二。2006至2009年间，地下水位每年降低0.3米（1英尺）。在叙利亚、伊拉克边境处的幼发拉底河，水流速度仅为过去的70%。该地区的水资源本来就严重短缺，如今更是雪上加霜。<span word="The">The</span> <span word="study">study</span> <span word="provides">provides</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="first">first</span> <span word="accurate">accurate</span> <span word="estimate">estimate</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="water">water</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="basin">basin</span>. <span word="National">National</span> <span word="statistics">statistics</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="flawed">flawed</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="incomplete">incomplete</span>; <span word="some">some</span> <span word="figures">figures</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="even">even</span> <span word="state">state</span> <span word="secrets">secrets</span>. <span word="But">But</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="study">study</span> <span word="uses">uses</span> <span word="satellite">satellite</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="America">America</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="NASA">NASA</span> <span word="which">which</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="subject">subject</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="these">these</span> <span word="restrictions">restrictions</span>. <span word="These">These</span> <span word="satellites">satellites</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="only">only</span> <span word="measure">measure</span> <span word="surface">surface</span> <span word="water">water</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="photographs">photographs</span> <span word="but">but</span>, <span word="thanks">thanks</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="precise">precise</span> <span word="measurements">measurements</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="effect">effect</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="bodies">bodies</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="water">water</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="atmosphere">atmosphere</span>, <span word="can">can</span> <span word="even">even</span> <span word="calculate">calculate</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="amount">amount</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="water">water</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="aquifer">aquifer</span> <span word="below">below</span> <span word="them">them</span>.该研究首次为两河流域的所有河流提供了一份准确的评估。各国国家统计局的数据并不准确，而且还不完整；有些数据甚至属于国家机密。但该研究使用的是美国国家宇航局（<span word="NASA">NASA</span>）发来的卫星数据，所以并不会受到这些限制的影响。那些卫星不仅可以通过照片测量地表水的容量，甚至还可以计算出地下的蓄水层所含水量，因为卫星能够精准地测量水体对大气的影响。<span word="The">The</span> <span word="main">main</span> <span word="reason">reason</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="depletion">depletion</span> <span word="turns">turns</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="water">water</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="being">being</span> <span word="taken">taken</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="underground">underground</span> <span word="aquifer">aquifer</span>, <span word="mainly">mainly</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="farmers">farmers</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="rate">rate</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="loss">loss</span> <span word="accelerated">accelerated</span> <span word="after">after</span> <span word="drought">drought</span> <span word="hit">hit</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="region">region</span> <span word="in">in</span> 2007. <span word="Between">Between</span> 2007 <span word="and">and</span> 2009, <span word="in">in</span> <span word="response">response</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="reduced">reduced</span> <span word="flows">flows</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="water">water</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="rivers">rivers</span>, <span word="Iraq">Iraq</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="government">government</span> <span word="dug">dug</span> 1,000 <span word="new">new</span> <span word="wells">wells</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="abstracted">abstracted</span> <span word="four">four</span>-<span word="fifths">fifths</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="groundwater">groundwater</span> <span word="reserves">reserves</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="aquifer">aquifer</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="being">being</span> <span word="replenished">replenished</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="anything">anything</span> <span word="like">like</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="rate">rate</span>, <span word="so">so</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="cannot">cannot</span> <span word="continue">continue</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="long">long</span>.原来，水资源之所以耗竭，主要是因为人们（主要是农民）从地下蓄水层抽出的水过多。2007年该地区遭遇了旱灾，因而水资源流失速度加快。在2007至2009年间，由于河流的水量减少，伊拉克政府新挖了1000口井，境内4/5的地下水资源都被抽干。水资源消耗速度如此之快，蓄水层却一直无法恢复到正常水量。所以这种状况也持续不了多久。<span word="The">The</span> <span word="rapid">rapid</span> <span word="depletion">depletion</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="implications">implications</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="managing">managing</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="basin">basin</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="shared">shared</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="Turkey">Turkey</span>, <span word="Syria">Syria</span>, <span word="Iraq">Iraq</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Iran">Iran</span>. <span word="All">All</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="countries">countries</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="extensive">extensive</span> <span word="dams">dams</span>, <span word="reservoirs">reservoirs</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="sorts">sorts</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="infrastructure">infrastructure</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="both">both</span> <span word="rivers">rivers</span> <span word="which">which</span> <span word="control">control</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="water">water</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="flow">flow</span>. <span word="But">But</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="no">no</span> <span word="international">international</span> <span word="treaty">treaty</span> <span word="governing">governing</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="shut">shut</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="flow">flow</span> <span word="down">down</span>.水资源的迅速枯竭为两河流域的治理带来了一定启示。该地区为土耳其、叙利亚、伊拉克和伊朗共有，所有国家都在两河上建了大量水坝、水库和其他基础设施，对水流进行控制。但他们并没有达成国际条约，约定应何时阻截水流、以及阻截多少。<span word="Over">Over</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="years">years</span>, <span word="this">this</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="mattered">mattered</span> <span word="much">much</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="countries">countries</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="rubbed">rubbed</span> <span word="along">along</span>, <span word="sometimes">sometimes</span> <span word="amicably">amicably</span>, <span word="sometimes">sometimes</span> <span word="not">not</span>, <span word="with">with</span> <span word="downstream">downstream</span> <span word="ones">ones</span> (<span word="notably">notably</span> <span word="Syria">Syria</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Iraq">Iraq</span>) <span word="assuming">assuming</span> <span word="there">there</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="always">always</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="enough">enough</span> <span word="water">water</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="upstream">upstream</span> <span word="reservoirs">reservoirs</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Turkey">Turkey</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="them">them</span> <span word="all">all</span>. <span word="But">But</span> <span word="if">if</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="study">study</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="any">any</span> <span word="guide">guide</span>, <span word="that">that</span> <span word="assumption">assumption</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="hold">hold</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="longer">longer</span>. <span word="As">As</span> <span word="Mr">Mr</span> <span word="Famiglietti">Famiglietti</span> <span word="says">says</span>, “<span word="The">The</span> <span word="region">region</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="ripe">ripe</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="collaborating">collaborating</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="science">science</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="water">water</span> <span word="management">management</span>. <span word="Whether">Whether</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="ready">ready</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="international">international</span> <span word="legal">legal</span> <span word="framework">framework</span>, <span word="I">I</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="no">no</span> <span word="idea">idea</span>.”多年来，这并没有造成很大影响。国家之间也算相安无事，有时相处融洽，有时也不尽然，因为下游区域的国家（尤其是叙利亚和伊拉克）总认为土耳其在上游区域的水库能为他们提供充沛的水资源。但如果这份新研究有可借鉴之处，那样的说法可能就撑不了多久了。正如费米格利提所说，“两河流域地区是该共同合作、科学管理水资源了。不过，我不清楚它是否愿意接受国际法律框架的束缚。”</p>
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