预测的统计数据
<p> <span word="Forecasting">Forecasting</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Statistics">Statistics</span> <span word="Nearly">Nearly</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="thousand">thousand</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="passed">passed</span> <span word="since">since</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="census">census</span> <span word="decreed">decreed</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="Caesar">Caesar</span></p><p> <span word="Nearly">Nearly</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="thousand">thousand</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="passed">passed</span> <span word="since">since</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="census">census</span> <span word="decreed">decreed</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="Caesar">Caesar</span> <span word="Augustus">Augustus</span> <span word="become">become</span> <span word="part">part</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="greatest">greatest</span> <span word="story">story</span> <span word="ever">ever</span> <span word="told">told</span>. <span word="Many">Many</span> <span word="things">things</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="changed">changed</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="intervening">intervening</span> <span word="years">years</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="hotel">hotel</span> <span word="industry">industry</span> <span word="worries">worries</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="overbuilding">overbuilding</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="overcrowding">overcrowding</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="if">if</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="had">had</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="meet">meet</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="unexpected">unexpected</span> <span word="influx">influx</span>, <span word="few">few</span> <span word="inns">inns</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="manager">manager</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="accommodate">accommodate</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="weary">weary</span> <span word="guests">guests</span>. <span word="Now">Now</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="census">census</span> <span word="taker">taker</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="does">does</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="traveling">traveling</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="fond">fond</span> <span word="hope">hope</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="highly">highly</span> <span word="mobile">mobile</span> <span word="population">population</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="stay">stay</span> <span word="long">long</span> <span word="enough">enough</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="get">get</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="good">good</span> <span word="sampling">sampling</span>. <span word="Methods">Methods</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="gathering">gathering</span>, <span word="recording">recording</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="evaluating">evaluating</span> <span word="information">information</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="presumably">presumably</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="improved">improved</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="great">great</span> <span word="deal">deal</span>. <span word="And">And</span> <span word="where">where</span> <span word="then">then</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="modest">modest</span> <span word="purpose">purpose</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Rome">Rome</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="obtain">obtain</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="simple">simple</span> <span word="head">head</span> <span word="count">count</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="adequate">adequate</span> <span word="basis">basis</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="levying">levying</span> <span word="taxes">taxes</span>, <span word="now">now</span> <span word="batteries">batteries</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="complicated">complicated</span> <span word="statistical">statistical</span> <span word="series">series</span> <span word="furnished">furnished</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="governmental">governmental</span> <span word="agencies">agencies</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="private">private</span> <span word="organizations">organizations</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="eagerly">eagerly</span> <span word="scanned">scanned</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="interpreted">interpreted</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="sages">sages</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="seers">seers</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="get">get</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="clue">clue</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="future">future</span> <span word="events">events</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="Bible">Bible</span> <span word="does">does</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="tell">tell</span> <span word="us">us</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Roman">Roman</span> <span word="census">census</span> <span word="takers">takers</span> <span word="made">made</span> <span word="out">out</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="regards">regards</span> <span word="our">our</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="immediate">immediate</span> <span word="concern">concern</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="reliability">reliability</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="present">present</span> <span word="day">day</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="forecasting">forecasting</span>, <span word="there">there</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="considerable">considerable</span> <span word="differences">differences</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="opinion">opinion</span>. <span word="They">They</span> <span word="were">were</span> <span word="aired">aired</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="celebration">celebration</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> 125<span word="th">th</span> <span word="anniversary">anniversary</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="American">American</span> <span word="Statistical">Statistical</span> <span word="Association">Association</span>. <span word="There">There</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="thought">thought</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="business">business</span> <span word="forecasting">forecasting</span> <span word="might">might</span> <span word="well">well</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="way">way</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="art">art</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="science">science</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="speakers">speakers</span> <span word="talked">talked</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="newfangled">newfangled</span> <span word="computers">computers</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="high">high</span>-<span word="falutin">falutin</span> <span word="mathematical">mathematical</span> <span word="system">system</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="terms">terms</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="excitement">excitement</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="endearment">endearment</span> <span word="which">which</span> <span word="we">we</span>, <span word="at">at</span> <span word="least">least</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="our">our</span> <span word="younger">younger</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="these">these</span> <span word="things">things</span> <span word="mattered">mattered</span>, <span word="would">would</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="associated">associated</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="readily">readily</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="description">description</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="fair">fair</span> <span word="maiden">maiden</span>. <span word="But">But</span> <span word="others">others</span> <span word="pointed">pointed</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="deplorable">deplorable</span> <span word="record">record</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="highly">highly</span> <span word="esteemed">esteemed</span> <span word="forecasts">forecasts</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="forecasters">forecasters</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="batting">batting</span> <span word="average">average</span> <span word="below">below</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Mets">Mets</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="President">President</span>-<span word="elect">elect</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Association">Association</span> <span word="cautioned">cautioned</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="high">high</span> <span word="powered">powered</span> <span word="statistical">statistical</span> <span word="methods">methods</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="usually">usually</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="order">order</span> <span word="where">where</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="facts">facts</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="crude">crude</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="inadequate">inadequate</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="exact">exact</span> <span word="contrary">contrary</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="what">what</span> <span word="crude">crude</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="inadequate">inadequate</span> <span word="statisticians">statisticians</span> <span word="assume">assume</span>. <span word="We">We</span> <span word="left">left</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="birthday">birthday</span> <span word="party">party</span> <span word="somewhere">somewhere</span> <span word="between">between</span> <span word="hope">hope</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="despair">despair</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="conviction">conviction</span>, <span word="not">not</span> <span word="really">really</span> <span word="newly">newly</span> <span word="acquired">acquired</span>, <span word="that">that</span> <span word="proper">proper</span> <span word="statistical">statistical</span> <span word="methods">methods</span> <span word="applied">applied</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="ascertainable">ascertainable</span> <span word="facts">facts</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="merits">merits</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="forecasting">forecasting</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="long">long</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="neither">neither</span> <span word="forecaster">forecaster</span> <span word="nor">nor</span> <span word="public">public</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="deluded">deluded</span> <span word="into">into</span> <span word="mistaking">mistaking</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="delineation">delineation</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="probabilities">probabilities</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="trends">trends</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="prediction">prediction</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="certainties">certainties</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="mathematical">mathematical</span> <span word="exactitude">exactitude</span>.</p>
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