2015考研英语阅读奥运经济学
<p> <span word="Olympionomics">Olympionomics</span>;<span word="The">The</span> <span word="dismal">dismal</span> <span word="dash">dash</span>;<span word="Which">Which</span> <span word="economist">economist</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="winthemedal">winthemedal</span>-<span word="prediction">prediction</span> <span word="gold">gold</span>?</p><p> 奥运经济学;令人沮丧的百米冲刺;哪位经济学家能够成为奖牌预测大赛的冠军呢?</p><p> <span word="Athletic">Athletic</span> <span word="prowess">prowess</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="being">being</span> <span word="tested">tested</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="year">year</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="Olympic">Olympic</span> <span word="games">games</span>. <span word="There">There</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="beteams">beteams</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="econometricians">econometricians</span> <span word="battling">battling</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="predict">predict</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="many">many</span> <span word="medals">medals</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="won">won</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="hostnation">hostnation</span>.</p><p> 今年的伦敦奥运会比的已经不仅仅是运动员高超的技艺。还有计量经济学家们组成的各支代表队将在场上进行激烈地角逐，争夺预测东道主英国奖牌数量大赛的冠军。</p><p> <span word="Over">Over</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="economists">economists</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="deployed">deployed</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="sorts">sorts</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="mental">mental</span> <span word="gymnastics">gymnastics</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="search">search</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="amodel">amodel</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="reliably">reliably</span> <span word="forecast">forecast</span> <span word="Olympic">Olympic</span> <span word="winners">winners</span>. <span word="Initial">Initial</span> <span word="expectations">expectations</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="medal">medal</span> <span word="tallieswould">tallieswould</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="closely">closely</span> <span word="correlated">correlated</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="population">population</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="per">per</span>-<span word="capita">capita</span> <span word="wealth">wealth</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="country">country</span> <span word="weresoon">weresoon</span> <span word="dashed">dashed</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="models">models</span> <span word="leapt">leapt</span> <span word="over">over</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="hurdle">hurdle</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="statistical">statistical</span> <span word="significance">significance</span> <span word="only">only</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="thirdvariable">thirdvariable</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="addedhow">addedhow</span> <span word="many">many</span> <span word="medals">medals</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="country">country</span> <span word="won">won</span> <span word="last">last</span> <span word="timebut">timebut</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="did">did</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="add">add</span> <span word="muchby">muchby</span> <span word="way">way</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="explanation">explanation</span>.</p><p> 在过去的几年里，经济学家们使出浑身解数，想要找到一种能够预测奥运会奖牌数量的可靠模型。一开始，他们认为一个国家在奥运会上所获奖牌的数量可能和这个国家的人口以及人均收入有紧密联系。但这样的想法很快就被排除了。而那些可以不需要考虑显著性差异的预测模型只有当加入第三个变量时才能够成立。但换句话说，这样的变量也起不了太大的作用。</p>
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