投资管理
<p> 2015复习正是强化复习阶段，在考研英语中占了40分，所以考研英语阅读是英语科目中重要的一项。名师老师曾建议过考研生需要坚持每天泛读10-15分钟的英文原刊。强烈推荐了杂志《经济学人》.杂志中的文章也是考研英语的主要材料来源.希望考研考生认真阅读，快速提高考研英语阅读水平。 <span word="Investment">Investment</span> <span word="management">management</span> 投资管理 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="rise">rise</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span> 贝莱德来了 <span word="In">In</span> 25 <span word="years">years</span>, <span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="become">become</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="world">world</span> <span word="sbiggest">sbiggest</span> <span word="investor">investor</span>. <span word="Is">Is</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="dominance">dominance</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="problem">problem</span>? 贝莱德二十五年间成为世界上最大资产管理公司，一家独大会出问题吗? <span word="ASK">ASK</span> <span word="conspiracy">conspiracy</span> <span word="theorists">theorists</span> <span word="who">who</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="think">think</span> <span word="really">really</span> <span word="runs">runs</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="world">world</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="probably">probably</span> <span word="pointto">pointto</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="banks">banks</span>, <span word="such">such</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="Citigroup">Citigroup</span>, <span word="Bank">Bank</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="America">America</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="JPMorgan">JPMorgan</span> <span word="Chase">Chase</span>. 问问阴谋论者到底是谁主宰着世界，他们很可能会将矛头指向跨国银行，比如花旗银行、美国银行、摩根大通， <span word="Oil">Oil</span> <span word="giants">giants</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="Exxon">Exxon</span> <span word="Mobil">Mobil</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Shell">Shell</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="earn">earn</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="mention">mention</span>. 石油巨头埃克森美孚、壳牌可能也会躺枪。 <span word="Or">Or</span> <span word="perhaps">perhaps</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="focus">focus</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="consumer">consumer</span>-<span word="goods">goods</span> <span word="firms">firms</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="hold">hold</span> <span word="billions">billions</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="thrall">thrall</span>:<span word="Apple">Apple</span>, <span word="McDonald">McDonald</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="Nestl">Nestl</span>. 或许，还会有人揪着几家资产亿万的消费品公司不放：苹果、麦当劳、雀氏，诸如此类。 <span word="One">One</span> <span word="firm">firm</span> <span word="unlikely">unlikely</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="feature">feature</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="list">list</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span>, <span word="an">an</span> <span word="investment">investment</span> <span word="manager">manager</span> <span word="whose">whose</span> <span word="namerings">namerings</span> <span word="few">few</span> <span word="bells">bells</span> <span word="outside">outside</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="circles">circles</span>. 有一家公司不大可能会入其法眼，那就是贝莱德集团，这家投资管理公司出了金融界可谓是知之者甚少。 <span word="Yet">Yet</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="single">single</span> <span word="biggest">biggest</span> <span word="shareholder">shareholder</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="companies">companies</span> <span word="listed">listed</span> <span word="above">above</span>. 然而，贝莱德却是上述所有上市公司中最大的一家。 <span word="It">It</span> <span word="owns">owns</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="stake">stake</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="almost">almost</span> <span word="every">every</span> <span word="listed">listed</span> <span word="company">company</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="just">just</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Americabut">Americabut</span> <span word="globally">globally</span>. 贝莱德持有几乎所有上市公司的股票，不仅仅持有美国公司的股票，而是世界各国上市公司的股票。 <span word="Its">Its</span> <span word="reach">reach</span> <span word="extends">extends</span> <span word="further">further</span>: <span word="to">to</span> <span word="corporate">corporate</span> <span word="bonds">bonds</span>, <span word="sovereign">sovereign</span> <span word="debt">debt</span>, <span word="commodities">commodities</span>, <span word="hedge">hedge</span> <span word="fundsand">fundsand</span> <span word="beyond">beyond</span>. 贝莱德涉猎领域远不止这些：企业债券、债权债务、商品期货、对冲基金等其他投资项目都可以看到他的身影。 <span word="It">It</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="easily">easily</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="biggest">biggest</span> <span word="investor">investor</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="world">world</span>, <span word="with">with</span> $4.1 <span word="trillion">trillion</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="directly">directly</span> <span word="controlled">controlled</span> <span word="assetsand">assetsand</span> <span word="another">another</span> $11 <span word="trillion">trillion</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="oversees">oversees</span> <span word="through">through</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="trading">trading</span> <span word="platform">platform</span>, <span word="Aladdin">Aladdin</span>. 贝莱德直接管理的资产总值为4.1万亿美元，还通过<span word="Aladdin">Aladdin</span>交易网络监管着11万亿美元的投资，这就使得贝莱德毫不费力便可登上全球最大投资公司的宝座。 <span word="Established">Established</span> <span word="in">in</span> 1988 <span word="by">by</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="group">group</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Wall">Wall</span> <span word="Streeters">Streeters</span> <span word="led">led</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="Larry">Larry</span> <span word="Fink">Fink</span>, <span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span> <span word="succeeded">succeeded</span> <span word="inpart">inpart</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="offering">offering</span> <span word="passive">passive</span> <span word="investment">investment</span> <span word="products">products</span>, <span word="such">such</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="exchange">exchange</span>-<span word="traded">traded</span> <span word="funds">funds</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="aimto">aimto</span> <span word="track">track</span> <span word="indices">indices</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="S">S</span> <span word="P">P</span> 500. 1988年，拉里芬克带着一帮华尔街精英成立了贝莱德集团，公司的成功在一定程度上要归功于推出诸如交易所交易基金的被动投资产品，该产品以同标普500这样的基础指数保持联动关系为目的。 <span word="These">These</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="cheap">cheap</span> <span word="alternatives">alternatives</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="traditional">traditional</span> <span word="mutual">mutual</span> <span word="funds">funds</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="often">often</span> <span word="do">do</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="enrichmoney">enrichmoney</span> <span word="managers">managers</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="clients">clients</span>. 同传统的共同基金相比，该基金成本更低，通常投资公司会比客户收益更高。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="sector">sector</span> <span word="continues">continues</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="grow">grow</span> <span word="fast">fast</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span>, <span word="partly">partly</span> <span word="through">through</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="iShares">iShares</span> <span word="brand">brand</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="thelargest">thelargest</span> <span word="competitor">competitor</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="industry">industry</span> <span word="where">where</span> <span word="scale">scale</span> <span word="brings">brings</span> <span word="benefits">benefits</span>. 并且，交易所交易基金的业务增长迅速，在一个规模化才能产生效益的行业中，贝莱德成为了佼佼者。 <span word="Its">Its</span> <span word="clients">clients</span>, <span word="ranging">ranging</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="Arab">Arab</span> <span word="sovereign">sovereign</span>-<span word="wealth">wealth</span> <span word="funds">funds</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="mom">mom</span>-<span word="and">and</span>-<span word="pop">pop</span> <span word="investors">investors</span>, <span word="savebillions">savebillions</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="fees">fees</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="result">result</span>. 贝莱德的客户，从阿拉伯的主权财富基金持有者到小投资者却因此省下了数以亿计的费用。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="reason">reason</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="success">success</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="management">management</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="risk">risk</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="actively">actively</span> <span word="managed">managed</span> <span word="portfolio">portfolio</span>. 贝莱德成功的另一原因在于对投资组合的风险的积极管理。 <span word="Early">Early</span> <span word="on">on</span>, <span word="for">for</span> <span word="instance">instance</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="leader">leader</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="mortgage">mortgage</span>-<span word="backed">backed</span> <span word="securities">securities</span>. 比如，公司在其曾是按揭证券行业的领跑者， <span word="But">But</span> <span word="because">because</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="analysed">analysed</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="riskiness">riskiness</span> <span word="zipcode">zipcode</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="zipcode">zipcode</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="only">only</span> <span word="avoided">avoided</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="bail">bail</span>-<span word="out">out</span> <span word="inthe">inthe</span> <span word="chaos">chaos</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="followed">followed</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="collapse">collapse</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Lehman">Lehman</span>, <span word="but">but</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="advised">advised</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="American">American</span> <span word="governmentand">governmentand</span> <span word="others">others</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="keep">keep</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="system">system</span> <span word="ticking">ticking</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="darkest">darkest</span> <span word="days">days</span> <span word="of">of</span> 2008, 通过一步步分析发现风险，不仅规避了雷曼兄弟破产后混乱的救市局面，还在2008年金融市场最黑暗的时候谏言美国政府及其他投资者，如何让市场继续运转下去。 <span word="and">and</span> <span word="picked">picked</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="profitable">profitable</span> <span word="money">money</span>-<span word="management">management</span> <span word="units">units</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="struggling">struggling</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="institutions">institutions</span> <span word="inthe">inthe</span> <span word="aftermath">aftermath</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="crisis">crisis</span>. 与此同时，在危机对金融机构带来的冲击余波未息之际，贝莱德自谋出路，甄选可盈利的资金管理项目。 <span word="Other">Other</span> <span word="people">people</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="money">money</span> 借鸡生蛋 <span word="Compared">Compared</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="many">many</span> <span word="banks">banks</span> <span word="which">which</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="flourishing">flourishing</span> <span word="only">only</span> <span word="thanks">thanks</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="state">state</span> <span word="largesse">largesse</span>,<span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="successbased">successbased</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="providing">providing</span> <span word="value">value</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="customers">customers</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="paying">paying</span> <span word="attention">attention</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="detailiswell">detailiswell</span>-<span word="deserved">deserved</span>. 同许多依靠政府援手才能风光无限的银行相比，贝莱德的成功基于让客户实现盈利及注重细节实至名归。 <span word="Yet">Yet</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="taxpayers">taxpayers</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="spent">spent</span> <span word="billions">billions</span> <span word="rescuing">rescuing</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="institutions">institutions</span> <span word="deemed">deemed</span> <span word="too">too</span> <span word="big">big</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="fail">fail</span>, <span word="a">a</span>25-<span word="year">year</span>-<span word="old">old</span> <span word="company">company</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="grown">grown</span> <span word="so">so</span> <span word="vast">vast</span> <span word="so">so</span> <span word="quickly">quickly</span> <span word="sets">sets</span> <span word="nerves">nerves</span> <span word="jangling">jangling</span>. 然而，当纳税人投入数以亿计的资金拯救一家被视作太大而不可能破产的金融机构时，这家成立仅25年却以惊人的速度发展壮大的公司不免会让人捏一把汗。 <span word="American">American</span> <span word="regulators">regulators</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="therefore">therefore</span> <span word="thinking">thinking</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="designating">designating</span> <span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="rivalsas">rivalsas</span> <span word="systemically">systemically</span> <span word="important">important</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="tag">tag</span> <span word="might">might</span> <span word="land">land</span> <span word="them">them</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="hefty">hefty</span> <span word="regulatory">regulatory</span> <span word="requirements">requirements</span>. 因此，美国监管机构正考虑将贝莱德及其竞争对手定义为极为重要，或许这一标签会让监管部门背上强权机构的恶名。 <span word="If">If</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="regulators">regulators</span> <span word="concern">concern</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="avoid">avoid</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="repeat">repeat</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="last">last</span> <span word="crisis">crisis</span>, <span word="they">they</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="barking">barking</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="wrongtree">wrongtree</span>. 如果监管部门想避免上次金融危机重演，那么他们就找错对象了。 <span word="Unlike">Unlike</span> <span word="banks">banks</span>, <span word="whose">whose</span> <span word="loans">loans</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="deposits">deposits</span> <span word="go">go</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="balance">balance</span>-<span word="sheets">sheets</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="assets">assets</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="liabilities">liabilities</span>,<span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="mere">mere</span> <span word="manager">manager</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="people">people</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="money">money</span>. 同借、贷款都会以资产与负债形式计入资产负债表的银行不同，贝莱德更多只是客户资产管理者的身份。 <span word="It">It</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="control">control</span> <span word="over">over</span> <span word="investments">investments</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="holds">holds</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="behalf">behalf</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="otherswhich">otherswhich</span> <span word="gives">gives</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="greatinfluencebut">greatinfluencebut</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="neither">neither</span> <span word="keeps">keeps</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="profits">profits</span> <span word="nor">nor</span> <span word="suffers">suffers</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="losses">losses</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="them">them</span>. 他只是代表客户管理投资这也让其影响力巨大却不以投资的盈亏而赚钱或赔本。 <span word="Whereas">Whereas</span> <span word="banks">banks</span> <span word="tumble">tumble</span> <span word="if">if</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="assets">assets</span> <span word="lose">lose</span> <span word="even">even</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="fraction">fraction</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="value">value</span>, <span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="passon">passon</span> <span word="any">any</span> <span word="shortfalls">shortfalls</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="clients">clients</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="withstand">withstand</span> <span word="far">far</span> <span word="greater">greater</span> <span word="shocks">shocks</span>. 银行只要出现一丁点亏损，便会牵一发而动全身;而无论客户出现任何损失，贝莱德都可以相安无事，即便再大的冲击都是如此。 <span word="In">In</span> <span word="fact">fact</span>, <span word="by">by</span> <span word="being">being</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="hand">hand</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="pick">pick</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="assets">assets</span> <span word="cheaply">cheaply</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="distressed">distressed</span> <span word="sellers">sellers</span>, <span word="an">an</span> <span word="unleveragedasset">unleveragedasset</span> <span word="manager">manager</span> <span word="arguably">arguably</span> <span word="stabilises">stabilises</span> <span word="markets">markets</span> <span word="rather">rather</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="disrupting">disrupting</span> <span word="them">them</span>. 事实上，通过低价收购亏损方出售的资产，毫无疑问一家独大的投资管理公司能够为市场带来稳定，而非混乱。 <span word="But">But</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="regulators">regulators</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="want">want</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="merely">merely</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="prevent">prevent</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="repeat">repeat</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="last">last</span> <span word="blow">blow</span>-<span word="up">up</span> <span word="but">but</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="toidentify">toidentify</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="sources">sources</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="future">future</span> <span word="systemic">systemic</span> <span word="perils">perils</span>, <span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span> <span word="raises">raises</span> <span word="another">another</span>, <span word="subtler">subtler</span> <span word="issue">issue</span>,<span word="concerning">concerning</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="ownership">ownership</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="assets">assets</span> <span word="but">but</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="way">way</span> <span word="buying">buying</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="selling">selling</span> <span word="decisions">decisions</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="made">made</span>. 要不是监管机构不仅希望避免上次金融危机重演，还想确认未来体系风险的来源，贝莱德还会引发另一微妙的问题，不是资产的所有权，而是买入或卖出的决策方式。 <span word="The">The</span> $15 <span word="trillion">trillion</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="assets">assets</span> <span word="managed">managed</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="Aladdin">Aladdin</span> <span word="platform">platform</span> <span word="amount">amount</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="around">around</span> 7% <span word="of">of</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="theshares">theshares</span>, <span word="bonds">bonds</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="loans">loans</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="world">world</span>. <span word="Aladdin">Aladdin</span>交易平台上监管的股票、债券、贷款占世界交易的7%左右，涉及资金总额为15万亿美元。 <span word="As">As</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="result">result</span>, <span word="those">those</span> <span word="who">who</span> <span word="oversee">oversee</span> <span word="many">many</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="world">world</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="biggest">biggest</span> <span word="pools">pools</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="money">money</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="looking">looking</span> <span word="atthe">atthe</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="world">world</span>, <span word="at">at</span> <span word="least">least</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="part">part</span>, <span word="through">through</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="lens">lens</span> <span word="crafted">crafted</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span>. 正是如此，那些监管世界上最大金库的人在一定程度上是通过贝莱德精心打磨的镜头审视金融界; <span word="Some">Some</span> 17,000 <span word="traders">traders</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="banks">banks</span>, <span word="insurance">insurance</span> <span word="companies">companies</span>, <span word="sovereign">sovereign</span>-<span word="wealth">wealth</span> <span word="funds">funds</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="othersrely">othersrely</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="part">part</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="analytical">analytical</span> <span word="models">models</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="guide">guide</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="investing">investing</span>. 近1.7万来自银行、保险公司、主权财产基金或其他机构的交易员都会关注贝莱德提供的分析模型，进而指导自己的投资。 <span word="Aladdin">Aladdin</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="genius">genius</span> <span word="Aladdin">Aladdin</span>的高明之处 <span word="That">That</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="tribute">tribute</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="elaborate">elaborate</span> <span word="risk">risk</span>-<span word="management">management</span> <span word="models">models</span>, <span word="but">but</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="alsodiscomfiting">alsodiscomfiting</span>. 上述成就皆源于贝莱德精心设计风险管理模式的馈赠，但问题也随之而来。 <span word="A">A</span> <span word="principle">principle</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="healthy">healthy</span> <span word="markets">markets</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="cacophony">cacophony</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="diverse">diverse</span> <span word="actors">actors</span> <span word="come">come</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="differentconclusions">differentconclusions</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="price">price</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="things">things</span>, <span word="based">based</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="own">own</span> <span word="idiosyncratic">idiosyncratic</span> <span word="analyses">analyses</span>. 健康市场的一大原则便是不同的参与者会就价格得出不同的结论，任何资产的价值都是不同意见相互妥协而得出最终价格。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="value">value</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="any">any</span> <span word="asset">asset</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="discovered">discovered</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="melding">melding</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="these">these</span> <span word="different">different</span> <span word="opinions">opinions</span> <span word="into">into</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="single">single</span> <span word="price">price</span>. 不论是从政治角度、还是自然角度、亦或是市场角度来讲，一个有单一思维主宰的生态系统是不健康的。 <span word="An">An</span> <span word="ecosystem">ecosystem</span> <span word="which">which</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="dominated">dominated</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="single">single</span> <span word="line">line</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="thinking">thinking</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="healthy">healthy</span>, <span word="in">in</span> <span word="politics">politics</span>, <span word="innature">innature</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="markets">markets</span>. <span word="Such">Such</span> <span word="groupthink">groupthink</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="finance">finance</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="recipe">recipe</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="booms">booms</span>. 在金融领域，集思广益是市场繁荣、或是萧条的秘诀。 <span word="Though">Though</span> <span word="Aladdin">Aladdin</span> <span word="advises">advises</span> <span word="clients">clients</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="investment">investment</span> <span word="decisions">decisions</span> <span word="rather">rather</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="making">making</span> <span word="them">them</span>, <span word="itinevitably">itinevitably</span> <span word="frames">frames</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="think">think</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="market">market</span> <span word="risk">risk</span>. <span word="Aladdin">Aladdin</span>交易网络向客户提供投资决策的建议，而非强迫客户投资，这必然会让客户对市场风险的分析陷入思维定势。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="last">last</span> <span word="crisis">crisis</span> <span word="had">had</span> <span word="many">many</span> <span word="causes">causes</span>. 导致2008年金融危机的原因有很多， <span word="One">One</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="them">them</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="perhaps">perhaps</span> <span word="lay">lay</span> <span word="behind">behind</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="others">others</span>, <span word="was">was</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="investors">investors</span> <span word="stopped">stopped</span> <span word="thinkingcritically">thinkingcritically</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="what">what</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="were">were</span> <span word="buying">buying</span>. 其根本原因或许是投资者缺乏批判思维，只知道一味的投资却不思考。 <span word="Too">Too</span> <span word="many">many</span> <span word="decided">decided</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="trust">trust</span> <span word="credit">credit</span>-<span word="rating">rating</span> <span word="agencies">agencies</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="assured">assured</span> <span word="them">them</span>, <span word="for">for</span> <span word="example">example</span>, <span word="thatpackages">thatpackages</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="American">American</span> <span word="subprime">subprime</span> <span word="mortgages">mortgages</span> <span word="were">were</span> <span word="extremely">extremely</span> <span word="unlikely">unlikely</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="default">default</span>. 太多投资者选择了相信信用评级机构，比如，这些机构向他们保证美国次级房贷是最不可能违约的贷款项目。 <span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="models">models</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="no">no</span> <span word="doubt">doubt</span> <span word="better">better</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="clunkers">clunkers</span> <span word="put">put</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="Moody">Moody</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="Standard">Standard</span> <span word="Poor">Poor</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="to">to</span> 2008: 毫无疑问，贝莱德模式要比穆迪、标普在2008年前发布的信用评级信息准确的多： <span word="the">the</span> <span word="firm">firm</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="relative">relative</span> <span word="recent">recent</span> <span word="success">success</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="proved">proved</span> <span word="that">that</span>. 近期贝莱德的成功便是证明。 <span word="But">But</span> <span word="too">too</span> <span word="many">many</span> <span word="investors">investors</span> <span word="relying">relying</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="single">single</span> <span word="model">model</span> <span word="spreads">spreads</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="unhealthy">unhealthy</span> <span word="orthodoxy">orthodoxy</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="islikely">islikely</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="make">make</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="markets">markets</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="volatile">volatile</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="otherwise">otherwise</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="be">be</span>. 但是，过多投资者依赖单一模式会造成一个恶性的正统体系，而这很可能会让市场比起多种模式时更加脆弱。 <span word="That">That</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="probably">probably</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="serious">serious</span> <span word="systemic">systemic</span> <span word="risk">risk</span>, <span word="for">for</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="self">self</span>-<span word="limiting">limiting</span>: <span word="the">the</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="moneyfollows">moneyfollows</span> <span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="money">money</span> <span word="there">there</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="made">made</span> <span word="betting">betting</span> <span word="against">against</span> <span word="it">it</span>. 或许，这并不是什么严重的系统风险，因为市场会发挥其自身调节作用：贝莱德监管的资金越多，便会有更多资金。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="real">real</span> <span word="danger">danger</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="investors">investors</span>. 真正危险的是投资者， <span word="The">The</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="rely">rely</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="analysis">analysis</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="smaller">smaller</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="upside">upside</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="gets">gets</span> <span word="things">things</span> <span word="rightand">rightand</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="greater">greater</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="downside">downside</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="gets">gets</span> <span word="things">things</span> <span word="wrongas">wrongas</span>, <span word="one">one</span> <span word="day">day</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="eventually">eventually</span> <span word="will">will</span>. 他们越是依赖贝莱德的风险分析，当分析结果正确的时候，股价上扬时利润越小，而当分析错误的时候，股价下跌时赔的越多。终有一天，上述情景便会成为现实。 <span word="Until">Until</span> <span word="then">then</span> <span word="BlackRock">BlackRock</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="single">single</span>-<span word="minded">minded</span> <span word="focus">focus</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="mastering">mastering</span> <span word="risk">risk</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="commended">commended</span>. 到那时，贝莱德一心致力于风险控制的做法将会受到表彰。 <span word="If">If</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="peers">peers</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="world">world</span> <span word="had">had</span> <span word="taken">taken</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="same">same</span> <span word="approach">approach</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="run">run</span>-<span word="up">up</span> <span word="to">to</span> 2008, <span word="muchof">muchof</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="chaos">chaos</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="past">past</span> <span word="five">five</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="averted">averted</span>. 如果金融界的同仁在08年金融危机初始阶段采取了同样的措施，过去五年的混乱局面本可规避。 词语解释 1.<span word="such">such</span> <span word="as">as</span> 例如;譬如;诸如 <span word="Big">Big</span> <span word="u">u</span>.<span word="s">s</span>. <span word="firms">firms</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="kfc">kfc</span> <span word="owner">owner</span> <span word="yum">yum</span>! 美国的大公司如<span word="kfc">kfc</span>的拥有者<span word="yum">yum</span>! <span word="What">What</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="future">future</span> <span word="steps">steps</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="euro">euro</span> <span word="bonds">bonds</span>? 诸如欧元联盟之类的未来计划怎样? 2.<span word="in">in</span> <span word="part">part</span> 在某种程度上，部分地;一半 <span word="Markets">Markets</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="nervous">nervous</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="part">part</span> <span word="because">because</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="national">national</span> <span word="politics">politics</span>. 国内政治是一部分市场紧张的原因。 <span word="In">In</span> <span word="part">part</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="result">result</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="happenstance">happenstance</span>. 这在某种程度上是偶然事件造成的。 3.<span word="for">for</span> <span word="instance">instance</span> 例如，比如 <span word="For">For</span> <span word="instance">instance</span>, <span word="they">they</span> <span word="tend">tend</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="high">high</span> <span word="unemployment">unemployment</span> <span word="rates">rates</span>. 比如说，这个群体的失业率往往较高。 <span word="For">For</span> <span word="instance">instance</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="assets">assets</span> <span word="should">should</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="fed">fed</span> <span word="buy">buy</span>? 例如，美联储应购买哪类资产? 4.<span word="base">base</span> <span word="on">on</span> 建立在基础上 <span word="Lance">Lance</span> <span word="cpl">cpl</span>. <span word="baker">baker</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="shir">shir</span> <span word="ghazay">ghazay</span> <span word="patrol">patrol</span> <span word="base">base</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="jan">jan</span>. 30. 兰斯科普尔贝克在西尔嘎泽巡逻基地。 <span word="Ms">Ms</span>. <span word="na">na</span> <span word="said">said</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="military">military</span> <span word="base">base</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="island">island</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="fire">fire</span>. <span word="na">na</span>女士说，岛上的一处军事基地着火。</p>
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