Bellweather
<p> 2015复习正是强化复习阶段，在考研英语中占了40分，所以考研英语阅读是英语科目中重要的一项。名师老师曾建议过考研生需要坚持每天泛读10-15分钟的英文原刊。强烈推荐了杂志《经济学人》.杂志中的文章也是考研英语的主要材料来源.希望考研考生认真阅读，快速提高考研英语阅读水平。 <span word="Bell">Bell</span> <span word="weather">weather</span> 呈钟形曲线变化的天气 <span word="A">A</span> <span word="statistical">statistical</span> <span word="analysis">analysis</span> <span word="shows">shows</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="things">things</span> <span word="really">really</span> <span word="areheating">areheating</span> <span word="up">up</span> 一项统计分析显示出天气究竟是如何变热的 <span word="ARE">ARE</span> <span word="heatwaves">heatwaves</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="common">common</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="used">used</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span>? 热浪来袭真的比以前更加频繁了吗? <span word="That">That</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="question">question</span> <span word="addressed">addressed</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="James">James</span> <span word="Hansen">Hansen</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="colleagues">colleagues</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="paper">paper</span> <span word="just">just</span> <span word="publishedin">publishedin</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Proceedings">Proceedings</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="National">National</span> <span word="Academy">Academy</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Sciences">Sciences</span>. 詹姆斯汉森与他的同事试图在《美国国家科学院院报》上发表的一篇新文章中回答这一问题。 <span word="Their">Their</span> <span word="conclusion">conclusion</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="theyareand">theyareand</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="draw">draw</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="do">do</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="even">even</span> <span word="include">include</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="current">current</span> <span word="scorcher">scorcher</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="drying">drying</span> <span word="upmuch">upmuch</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="North">North</span> <span word="America">America</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="threatening">threatening</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="harvest">harvest</span>. 他们得出的结论是，情况的确如此，而且得出这一结论的依据这还不包括最近北美的酷热天气。现在那里的大部分地区已经干旱无比，当地农作物的收成也因此受到了威胁。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="team">team</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="method">method</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="presentation">presentation</span>, <span word="however">however</span>, <span word="has">has</span> <span word="caused">caused</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="stir">stir</span> <span word="among">among</span> <span word="those">those</span> <span word="who">who</span> <span word="feel">feel</span> <span word="thatscientific">thatscientific</span> <span word="papers">papers</span> <span word="should">should</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="dispassionate">dispassionate</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="delivery">delivery</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="evidence">evidence</span>. 然而，詹姆斯汉森与他的同事所采用的展示方案却在一群人中引起了骚动。这些人认为科技论文在表述证据时应客观公正， <span word="For">For</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="paper">paper</span>, <span word="interesting">interesting</span> <span word="though">though</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="evidence">evidence</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="delivers">delivers</span> <span word="is">is</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="far">far</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="dispassionate">dispassionate</span>. 但有意思的是，该文章在表述证据时却远未做到不偏不倚。 <span word="Dr">Dr</span> <span word="Hansen">Hansen</span>, <span word="who">who</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="head">head</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Goddard">Goddard</span> <span word="Institute">Institute</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="Space">Space</span> <span word="Studies">Studies</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="branch">branch</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="NASA">NASA</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="isbased">isbased</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="New">New</span> <span word="York">York</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="polemicist">polemicist</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="risks">risks</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="man">man</span>-<span word="made">made</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="warming">warming</span>. 总部在纽约的戈达德太空研究所是美国国家航空航天局的一个分支部门，该研究所的负责人汉森博士能言善辩，他声称人为因素导致的全球变暖将给人类带来危害。 <span word="Despite">Despite</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="job">job</span> <span word="running">running</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="government">government</span> <span word="laboratory">laboratory</span>, <span word="he">he</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="managed">managed</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="get">get</span> <span word="himself">himself</span> <span word="arrested">arrested</span> <span word="onthree">onthree</span> <span word="occasions">occasions</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="protesting">protesting</span> <span word="against">against</span> <span word="those">those</span> <span word="he">he</span> <span word="thinks">thinks</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="causing">causing</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="climate">climate</span> <span word="change">change</span>. 尽管汉森博士主管政府实验室，他却参加过抗议活动，以此来反对那些他认为将造成此类气候变化的行为，而他也因此如愿被警察逮捕过三次。 <span word="He">He</span> <span word="clearly">clearly</span> <span word="states">states</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="paper">paper</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="introduction">introduction</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="he">he</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="looking">looking</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="way">way</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="conveying">conveying</span> <span word="hisfears">hisfears</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="sceptical">sceptical</span> <span word="public">public</span>. 汉森博士在他的文章序言中明确指出，他正在寻找一种方法，以此让那些对他的观点持怀疑态度的公众体会到他的焦虑。 <span word="Some">Some</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="scepticism">scepticism</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="connected">connected</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="fact">fact</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="although">although</span> <span word="changes">changes</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="climate">climate</span> <span word="willinevitably">willinevitably</span> <span word="result">result</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="changes">changes</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="weather">weather</span>, <span word="ascribing">ascribing</span> <span word="any">any</span> <span word="given">given</span> <span word="eventsuch">eventsuch</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="localheatwaveto">localheatwaveto</span> <span word="climate">climate</span> <span word="change">change</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="impossible">impossible</span>. 尽管气候变化将不可避免地导致天气变化，但不能将所有特定事件都归因于气候变化，而公众的怀疑态度中有一部分就与这一事实有关。 <span word="Dr">Dr</span> <span word="Hansen">Hansen</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="therefore">therefore</span> <span word="tried">tried</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="go">go</span> <span word="beyond">beyond</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="study">study</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="individual">individual</span> <span word="causes">causes</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="demonstratingthat">demonstratingthat</span> <span word="what">what</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="once">once</span> <span word="unusual">unusual</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="now">now</span> <span word="common">common</span>. 因此，汉森博士通过论证过去人们眼中的异常天气如今已是十分常见，试图使他的研究不仅仅局限于个别原因。 <span word="Longer">Longer</span>, <span word="hotter">hotter</span> <span word="summers">summers</span> 夏天愈加漫长炎热了 <span word="To">To</span> <span word="do">do</span> <span word="so">so</span>, <span word="he">he</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="colleagues">colleagues</span> <span word="took">took</span> 60 <span word="years">years</span> <span word="worth">worth</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Goddard">Goddard</span> <span word="Institute">Institute</span> <span word="ssurface">ssurface</span> <span word="air">air</span>-<span word="temperature">temperature</span> <span word="analysis">analysis</span>. 为此，汉森博士与其同事从戈达德研究所收集了60年地表气温分析数据。 <span word="This">This</span> <span word="analysis">analysis</span> <span word="divides">divides</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="planet">planet</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="surface">surface</span> <span word="into">into</span> <span word="cells">cells</span> 250<span word="km">km</span> <span word="across">across</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="records">records</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="averagetemperature">averagetemperature</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="each">each</span> <span word="cell">cell</span>. 这些分析材料将地球表面分成了一个个宽250公里的区块，并记录了每个区域内的平均温度。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="researchers">researchers</span> <span word="broke">broke</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="into">into</span> <span word="six">six</span> <span word="decade">decade</span>-<span word="long">long</span> <span word="blocks">blocks</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="compared">compared</span> <span word="those">those</span> <span word="blocks">blocks</span> <span word="statistical">statistical</span> <span word="properties">properties</span>. 研究者将这些数据按十年一组分成了六个时间段，并对这些时间段内的统计特性进行了比较。 <span word="They">They</span> <span word="looked">looked</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="particular">particular</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="three">three</span> <span word="months">months</span> <span word="which">which</span> <span word="constitute">constitute</span> <span word="summer">summer</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="northernhemisphere">northernhemisphere</span>. 研究者特别关注了北半球夏季三个月的温度。 <span word="First">First</span>, <span word="they">they</span> <span word="created">created</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="reference">reference</span> <span word="value">value</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="each">each</span> <span word="cell">cell</span>. 首先，他们计算出了1951年至1980年每一个区块夏季三个月的平均温度， <span word="This">This</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="average">average</span> <span word="temperature">temperature</span> <span word="over">over</span> <span word="those">those</span> <span word="three">three</span> <span word="months">months</span> <span word="from">from</span> 1951-80. 并将这些数据作为每个区块的参考值。 <span word="Then">Then</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="calculated">calculated</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="temperature">temperature</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="each">each</span> <span word="cell">cell</span> <span word="deviated">deviated</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="cell">cell</span> <span word="sreference">sreference</span> <span word="value">value</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="any">any</span> <span word="given">given</span> <span word="summer">summer</span>. 接着，研究者又计算在任意指定的夏季内每个区块内的温度分别与各自的参考值存在多少偏差。 <span word="That">That</span> <span word="done">done</span>, <span word="they">they</span> <span word="plotted">plotted</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="series">series</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="curves">curves</span>, <span word="one">one</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="each">each</span> <span word="decade">decade</span>, <span word="that">that</span> <span word="showed">showed</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="frequentlyeach">frequentlyeach</span> <span word="deviant">deviant</span> <span word="value">value</span> <span word="occurred">occurred</span>. 这一步完成后，他们以十年为单位绘制了六条曲线，这些曲线显示出了每一个偏差值发生的频率。 <span word="Since">Since</span> <span word="small">small</span> <span word="deviations">deviations</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="common">common</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="large">large</span> <span word="ones">ones</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="rare">rare</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="result">result</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="plotting">plotting</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="thisway">thisway</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="curve">curve</span> <span word="shaped">shaped</span> <span word="somewhat">somewhat</span> <span word="like">like</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="cross">cross</span>-<span word="section">section</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="bell">bell</span>. 由于小的偏差时有发生，而大的偏差则较为少见，因此用这一方法对数据进行描绘，得出的曲线形状就像一个钟的横截面。 <span word="Such">Such</span> <span word="distributions">distributions</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="modelled">modelled</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="mathematical">mathematical</span> <span word="function">function</span> <span word="known">known</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="normaldistributionor">normaldistributionor</span> <span word="bell">bell</span> <span word="curve">curve</span>. 这样的分布状态可以用数学上的一个函数来表示，即正态分布，又称钟形曲线。 <span word="Whether">Whether</span> <span word="based">based</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="mathematical">mathematical</span> <span word="ideal">ideal</span>, <span word="such">such</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="curve">curve</span> <span word="always">always</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="parameters">parameters</span>. 无论是基于数据还是理想数学模型，钟形曲线都有两个参数。 <span word="These">These</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="mean">mean</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="standard">standard</span> <span word="deviation">deviation</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="measures">measures</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="wide">wide</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="bell">bell</span> <span word="is">is</span>. 一个是平均值，另一个是它的标准差。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="standard">standard</span> <span word="deviation">deviation</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="calculated">calculated</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="individual">individual</span> <span word="deviations">deviations</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="points">points</span>. 标准差可以通过计算所有数值的方差得到。 <span word="To">To</span> <span word="see">see</span> <span word="what">what</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="going">going</span> <span word="on">on</span>, <span word="Dr">Dr</span> <span word="Hansen">Hansen</span> <span word="superimposed">superimposed</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="actual">actual</span> <span word="curves">curves</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="each">each</span> <span word="decade">decade</span> <span word="fromthe">fromthe</span> <span word="fifties">fifties</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="noughties">noughties</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="normal">normal</span> <span word="distribution">distribution</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="acted">acted</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="reference">reference</span> <span word="curve">curve</span>. 为了弄清气候变化，汉森博士以正态分布曲线为参照曲线，将其与六十年中每十年一条的实际曲线相叠加。 <span word="To">To</span> <span word="make">make</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="curves">curves</span> <span word="comparable">comparable</span>, <span word="he">he</span> <span word="expressed">expressed</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="values">values</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="actual">actual</span> <span word="deviations">deviations</span> <span word="asfractions">asfractions</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="standard">standard</span> <span word="deviation">deviation</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="frequencies">frequencies</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="proportions">proportions</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="total">total</span> <span word="number">number</span>. 为了使所有这些曲线具有可比性，汉森博士将实际偏差值用其与所属样本标准差的比例来衡量，用数据发生偏差数与数据总数的比例表述其频率。 <span word="As">As</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="chart">chart</span> <span word="shows">shows</span>, <span word="there">there</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="trends">trends</span>. 如图所示，钟形曲线表现出了两种趋势。 <span word="First">First</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="peaks">peaks</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="data">data</span>-<span word="based">based</span> <span word="curves">curves</span> <span word="move">move</span> <span word="right">right</span>, <span word="over">over</span> <span word="time">time</span>, <span word="with">with</span> <span word="respect">respect</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="thereference">thereference</span> <span word="curve">curve</span>. <span word="In">In</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="words">words</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="average">average</span> <span word="temperature">temperature</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="rising">rising</span>. 第一，对照参考曲线，随着时间的推移，这种数据型曲线的峰值会向右移，也就是说地球上的平均温度在上升。 <span word="Second">Second</span>, <span word="more">more</span> <span word="recent">recent</span> <span word="curves">curves</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="flatter">flatter</span>. 第二，时间距离现在越近，曲线越矮胖， <span word="A">A</span> <span word="flatter">flatter</span> <span word="curve">curve</span> <span word="means">means</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="bigger">bigger</span> <span word="standard">standard</span> <span word="deviation">deviation</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="wider">wider</span> <span word="spread">spread</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="results">results</span>. 这也就意味着标准差越大，温度数据分布越广。 <span word="If">If</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="mean">mean</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="each">each</span> <span word="curve">curve</span> <span word="were">were</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="same">same</span>, <span word="such">such</span> <span word="flattening">flattening</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="imply">imply</span> <span word="both">both</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="coldperiods">coldperiods</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="hot">hot</span> <span word="ones">ones</span>. 如果每一条曲线的平均值相同，那么这种平滑过程也就意味着地球上的寒冷期和炎热期的出现次数都会增加。 <span word="But">But</span> <span word="because">because</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="mean">mean</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="rising">rising</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="effect">effect</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="cold">cold</span> <span word="end">end</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="curves">curves</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="diminished">diminished</span>, <span word="whilethat">whilethat</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="hot">hot</span> <span word="end">end</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="enhanced">enhanced</span>. 但由于这些曲线的平均值在增加，因此地球上寒冷期的出现次数会减少，而炎热期的出现次数则会增加。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="upshot">upshot</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="hot">hot</span> <span word="periods">periods</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="local">local</span> <span word="weather">weather</span>. 最终导致的结果就是各地出现炎热天气的次数越来越多。 <span word="Moreover">Moreover</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="bell">bell</span>-<span word="curve">curve</span> <span word="method">method</span> <span word="makes">makes</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="possible">possible</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="say">say</span> <span word="just">just</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="hot">hot</span> <span word="weatherthere">weatherthere</span> <span word="is">is</span>. 此外，有了钟形曲线，人们还能判断炎热天气的出现频率比过去增加了多少。 <span word="Dr">Dr</span> <span word="Hansen">Hansen</span> <span word="defined">defined</span> <span word="extreme">extreme</span> <span word="conditions">conditions</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="those">those</span> <span word="occurring">occurring</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="three">three</span> <span word="standarddeviations">standarddeviations</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="mean">mean</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="reference">reference</span> <span word="curve">curve</span>. 汉森博士下了定义：如果在他的参考曲线中某一数值偏离其平均值达到或超过三个标准差，那么这就是极端天气。 <span word="In">In</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="curve">curve</span>, <span word="this">this</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="eighth">eighth</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="percent">percent</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="each">each</span> <span word="end">end</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="less">less</span> <span word="thevalue">thevalue</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="curve">curve</span> <span word="for">for</span> 1951-61. 在参考曲线中，左右两端数据中偏离均值超过三个标准差的极端数据应该恰好分别为0.125%，而1951至1961年这一时间段的极端数据分布情况大致上也符合这一特征。 <span word="Nowadays">Nowadays</span>, <span word="though">though</span>, <span word="extreme">extreme</span> <span word="conditions">conditions</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="found">found</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="any">any</span> <span word="given">given</span> <span word="time">time</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="about">about</span> 8% <span word="of">of</span> <span word="theworld">theworld</span>. 但现在世界上约有8%的地区在特定时间内都有极端天气的出现。 <span word="Local">Local</span> <span word="weather">weather</span> <span word="patterns">patterns</span> <span word="do">do</span>, <span word="of">of</span> <span word="course">course</span>, <span word="have">have</span> <span word="local">local</span> <span word="causes">causes</span>. <span word="To">To</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="extent">extent</span>, <span word="they">they</span> <span word="areaccidental">areaccidental</span>. 当然，各地天气模式的出现的确包含着地方性的原因。在这种程度上说，它们的发生是具有偶然性的。 <span word="But">But</span> <span word="Dr">Dr</span> <span word="Hansen">Hansen</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="analysis">analysis</span> <span word="suggests">suggests</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="claims">claims</span> <span word="there">there</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="hot">hot</span> <span word="weather">weather</span> <span word="around">around</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="thereused">thereused</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="substance">substance</span>, <span word="too">too</span>. 但汉森博士的分析表明，各地的炎热天气的确比以往多这种说法也是有依据的。 <span word="Nothing">Nothing</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="analysis">analysis</span> <span word="speaks">speaks</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="cause">cause</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="substance">substance</span>. <span word="That">That</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="deliberate">deliberate</span>. 但他的分析并没有涉及到这种依据的来源，而这也是汉森博士有意为之。 <span word="As">As</span> <span word="he">he</span> <span word="says">says</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="paper">paper</span>, <span word="he">he</span> <span word="wants">wants</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="speak">speak</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="themselvesthough">themselvesthough</span> <span word="he">he</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="personallyconvinced">personallyconvinced</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="cause">cause</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="human">human</span>-<span word="generated">generated</span> <span word="emissions">emissions</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="greenhouse">greenhouse</span> <span word="gases">gases</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="ascarbon">ascarbon</span> <span word="dioxide">dioxide</span>. 正如他在文章中所说，他希望数据能说明问题尽管他本人相信气候变暖是因为人类排放二氧化碳等温室气体造成的。 <span word="But">But</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="United">United</span> <span word="States">States</span> <span word="bakes">bakes</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="what">what</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="turn">turn</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="record">record</span> <span word="heatwave">heatwave</span>, <span word="he">he</span> <span word="hopes">hopes</span> <span word="hemight">hemight</span> <span word="now">now</span> <span word="persuade">persuade</span> <span word="those">those</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="whom">whom</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="warming">warming</span> <span word="is">is</span>, <span word="as">as</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="were">were</span>, <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="back">back</span> <span word="burner">burner</span>, <span word="toagree">toagree</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="real">real</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="think">think</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="consequences">consequences</span>. 但现在，一股或许是有史以来最猛烈的热浪正在炙烤着美国。他希望他现在能够说服那些跟过去一样搁置考虑全球变暖问题的人，使他们认同全球变暖现象的确存在并考虑其后果。 词语解释 1.<span word="heat">heat</span> <span word="up">up</span> 变热;加热 <span word="Scientists">Scientists</span> <span word="say">say</span> <span word="continued">continued</span> <span word="emissions">emissions</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="cause">cause</span> <span word="theplanet">theplanet</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="heat">heat</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="further">further</span>. 科学家表示，持续的排放使地球越来越热。 <span word="Despite">Despite</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="cold">cold</span> <span word="weather">weather</span>, <span word="you">you</span> <span word="ll">ll</span> <span word="still">still</span> <span word="heat">heat</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="andlose">andlose</span> <span word="fluids">fluids</span> <span word="through">through</span> <span word="sweat">sweat</span>. 尽管是在冷天里，运动时你仍然在升温并且通过汗液遗失水分。 2.<span word="dry">dry</span> <span word="up">up</span> 枯竭 <span word="Emerging">Emerging</span> <span word="economies">economies</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="usually">usually</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="first">first</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="drop">drop</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="international">international</span> <span word="capital">capital</span> <span word="flows">flows</span> <span word="dry">dry</span> <span word="up">up</span>. 当国际资本流动枯竭时，新兴经济体往往率先受到冲击。 <span word="One">One</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="listlessness">listlessness</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="drift">drift</span>, <span word="as">as</span> <span word="discipline">discipline</span> <span word="crumbles">crumbles</span>, <span word="morale">morale</span> <span word="plummets">plummets</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="ideas">ideas</span> <span word="dry">dry</span> <span word="up">up</span>. 其一是由于纪律瓦解、士气下降、思想枯竭而引起的迟缓低迷。 3.<span word="manage">manage</span> <span word="to">to</span> 达成，设法 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="rest">rest</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="europe">europe</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="well">well</span> <span word="manage">manage</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="muddle">muddle</span> <span word="through">through</span>. 而欧洲其余国家也许能很好地设法渡过此难关。 <span word="So">So</span> <span word="you">you</span> <span word="finally">finally</span> <span word="manage">manage</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="get">get</span> <span word="through">through</span> <span word="everything">everything</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="start">start</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="blog">blog</span>. 你最终设法应付过这一切，并开设了一个博客。 4.<span word="look">look</span> <span word="for">for</span> 寻找 <span word="Look">Look</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="second">second</span> <span word="job">job</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="odd">odd</span> <span word="jobs">jobs</span>. 找第二份工作或者做零工。 <span word="Always">Always</span> <span word="look">look</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="ways">ways</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="improve">improve</span>. 总是寻找不同的方法改进。</p>
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