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meili 发表于 2022-10-18 19:40:53

内战科技

<p>　　2015复习正是强化复习阶段，在考研英语中占了40分，所以考研英语阅读是英语科目中重要的一项。名师老师曾建议过考研生需要坚持每天泛读10-15分钟的英文原刊。强烈推荐了杂志《经济学人》.杂志中的文章也是考研英语的主要材料来源.希望考研考生认真阅读，快速提高考研英语阅读水平。　　<span word="The">The</span> <span word="science">science</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="civil">civil</span> <span word="war">war</span>　　内战科技　　<span word="What">What</span> <span word="makes">makes</span> <span word="heroic">heroic</span> <span word="strife">strife</span>　　英勇斗争缘何而致　　<span word="Computer">Computer</span> <span word="models">models</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="predict">predict</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="outbreakand">outbreakand</span> <span word="spread">spread</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="civil">civil</span> <span word="conflict">conflict</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="being">being</span> <span word="developed">developed</span>　　可以预测内战的爆发和蔓延的计算机模型正在被开发出来。　　<span word="FOR">FOR</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="past">past</span> <span word="decade">decade</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="so">so</span>, <span word="generals">generals</span> <span word="commanding">commanding</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="world">world</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="advanced">advanced</span> <span word="armies">armies</span> <span word="havebeen">havebeen</span> <span word="able">able</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="rely">rely</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="accurate">accurate</span> <span word="forecasts">forecasts</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="outcomes">outcomes</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="conventional">conventional</span> <span word="battles">battles</span>.　　在过去的十年中，对世界上最先进的军队的指挥依赖于对传统战争爆发的精确预测。　　<span word="Given">Given</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="weather">weather</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="terrain">terrain</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="combatants">combatants</span> <span word="numbers">numbers</span>, <span word="weaponry">weaponry</span>, <span word="positions">positions</span>,<span word="training">training</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="level">level</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="morale">morale</span>, <span word="computer">computer</span> <span word="programs">programs</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Tactical">Tactical</span> <span word="Numerical">Numerical</span> <span word="DeterministicModel">DeterministicModel</span>, <span word="designed">designed</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Dupuy">Dupuy</span> <span word="Institute">Institute</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Washington">Washington</span>, <span word="DC">DC</span>, <span word="can">can</span> <span word="predict">predict</span> <span word="who">who</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="win">win</span>, <span word="howquickly">howquickly</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="many">many</span> <span word="casualties">casualties</span>.　　只要有关于气候和土地的数据信息，敌人的数目，武器，位置，训练以及道德水平，计算机程序，比如华盛顿<span word="Dupuy">Dupuy</span>研究所设计的战术数值确定模型，可以预测哪一方会赢得战争，需要多少时间，以及会有多少人员伤亡。　　<span word="Guerrilla">Guerrilla</span> <span word="warfare">warfare</span>, <span word="however">however</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="harder">harder</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="model">model</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="open">open</span> <span word="battle">battle</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="sort">sort</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="civilinsurrection">civilinsurrection</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="often">often</span> <span word="precedes">precedes</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="harder">harder</span> <span word="still">still</span>.　　然而，游击战争是很难模拟的，在此之前的暴动也同样难模拟，　　<span word="Which">Which</span>, <span word="from">from</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="generals">generals</span> <span word="point">point</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="view">view</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="pity">pity</span>, <span word="because">because</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="conflict">conflict</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="dominantform">dominantform</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="strife">strife</span> <span word="these">these</span> <span word="days">days</span>.　　很不幸，从普遍观点看来，最近一段时候这类战争冲突占了大部分。　　<span word="The">The</span> <span word="reason">reason</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="difficulty">difficulty</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="fuel">fuel</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="popular">popular</span> <span word="uprisings">uprisings</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="hardware">hardware</span>, <span word="but">but</span> <span word="socialfactors">socialfactors</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="type">type</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="computer">computer</span> <span word="programmers">programmers</span> <span word="find">find</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="difficult">difficult</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="capture">capture</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="algorithms">algorithms</span>.　　预测困难的原因是激起暴动的因素并非硬性条件，而是一种社会因素，而这种社会因素是计算机程序很难计算的。　　<span word="Analysing">Analysing</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="emotional">emotional</span> <span word="temperature">temperature</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="postings">postings</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="Facebook">Facebook</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Twitter">Twitter</span>, <span word="or">or</span> <span word="thetelephone">thetelephone</span> <span word="traffic">traffic</span> <span word="between">between</span> <span word="groups">groups</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="villages">villages</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="always">always</span> <span word="going">going</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="harder">harder</span> <span word="task">task</span> <span word="thananalysing">thananalysing</span> <span word="physics">physics</span>-<span word="based">based</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="like">like</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="tank">tank</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="firing">firing</span> <span word="range">range</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="army">army</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="stocks">stocks</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="ammunitionand">ammunitionand</span> <span word="fuel">fuel</span>.　　分析<span word="facebook">facebook</span>和微博上更新的情绪，或是分析村落之间的电话往来，总是一项比分析实实在在的数据，比如说一台坦克的射程或者一支军队的军火和燃料储备，要难得多的任务。　　<span word="Harder">Harder</span>, <span word="but">but</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="impossible">impossible</span>.　　很难，并不表示不可能。　　<span word="For">For</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="war">war</span>-<span word="games">games</span> <span word="rooms">rooms</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="think">think</span>-<span word="tanks">tanks</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="rich">rich</span> <span word="world">world</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="military">military</span> <span word="powers">powers</span>, <span word="brightminds">brightminds</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="working">working</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="problem">problem</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="model">model</span> <span word="insurrection">insurrection</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="irregular">irregular</span> <span word="warfare">warfare</span>.　　对于富人世界的军事力量的战争模拟室和智囊团而言，正有智慧的大脑在解决这些问题，如何模拟暴动和非常规战争。　　<span word="Slowly">Slowly</span> <span word="but">but</span> <span word="surely">surely</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="succeeding">succeeding</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="process">process</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="helping">helping</span> <span word="politicians">politicians</span> <span word="andarmies">andarmies</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="better">better</span> <span word="understanding">understanding</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="nature">nature</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="rebellion">rebellion</span>.　　虽然很缓慢，但是可以确认他们正走向成功。在此过程中，他们帮助政治家们和军队更好地理解叛乱的本质。　　<span word="SCARE">SCARE</span> <span word="tactics">tactics</span>　　<span word="SCARE">SCARE</span>战术　　<span word="One">One</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="best">best</span>-<span word="known">known</span> <span word="projects">projects</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="field">field</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="SCARE">SCARE</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Spatio">Spatio</span>-<span word="Cultural">Cultural</span> <span word="Abductive">Abductive</span> <span word="ReasoningEngine">ReasoningEngine</span>, <span word="developed">developed</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="United">United</span> <span word="States">States</span> <span word="Military">Military</span> <span word="Academy">Academy</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="West">West</span> <span word="Point">Point</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="team">team</span> <span word="led">led</span> <span word="byMajor">byMajor</span> <span word="Paulo">Paulo</span> <span word="Shakarian">Shakarian</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="computer">computer</span>-<span word="scientist">scientist</span>-<span word="turned">turned</span>-<span word="soldier">soldier</span>.　　本领域中最有名的项目之一是<span word="SCARE">SCARE</span>，全称为空间文化推导仪，是由设立在西点军校的美国军事科学院的<span word="Paulo">Paulo</span> <span word="Shakarian">Shakarian</span>少校所领导的团队开发的。　　<span word="SCARE">SCARE</span> <span word="operates">operates</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="militarily">militarily</span> <span word="conventional">conventional</span> <span word="end">end</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="irregular">irregular</span>-<span word="conflictspectrum">conflictspectrum</span>: <span word="the">the</span> <span word="point">point</span> <span word="where">where</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="army">army</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="guerrillas">guerrillas</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="already">already</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="being">being</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="making">making</span> <span word="life">life</span> <span word="hardfor">hardfor</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="notionally">notionally</span> <span word="better">better</span>-<span word="armed">armed</span> <span word="army">army</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="regular">regular</span> <span word="troops">troops</span>.　　<span word="Paulo">Paulo</span> <span word="Shakarian">Shakarian</span>少校是一名军事计算机科学家。<span word="SCARE">SCARE</span>在非常规的战争冲突中军事图谱上看来传统的结束时分运作，即游击队已经到来，让我们观念中装备精良的正规军陷入困境之时运作。　　<span word="That">That</span>, <span word="of">of</span> <span word="course">course</span>, <span word="has">has</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="experience">experience</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="American">American</span> <span word="forces">forces</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Vietnam">Vietnam</span>, <span word="Iraq">Iraq</span> <span word="andAfghanistan">andAfghanistan</span>.　　显然，那就是美军在越南，伊拉克和阿富汗的经历。　　<span word="Major">Major</span> <span word="Shakarian">Shakarian</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="team">team</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="analysed">analysed</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="behaviour">behaviour</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="guerrillas">guerrillas</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="both">both</span> <span word="Iraq">Iraq</span> <span word="andAfghanistan">andAfghanistan</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="think">think</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="understand">understand</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="well">well</span> <span word="enough">enough</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="build">build</span> <span word="reliable">reliable</span> <span word="models">models</span>.　　<span word="Shakarian">Shakarian</span>少校和他的团队分析了伊拉克和阿富汗游击队的行为方式，并且认为他们已经足够了解他们的行为方式，可以建立可靠的模型。　　<span word="Their">Their</span> <span word="crucial">crucial</span> <span word="insight">insight</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="local">local</span> <span word="nature">nature</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="conflict">conflict</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="these">these</span> <span word="countries">countries</span>.　　至关重要的是，他们深刻洞察了这些国家冲突的地区本质特性。　　<span word="In">In</span> <span word="particular">particular</span>, <span word="bombs">bombs</span> <span word="directed">directed</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="occupying">occupying</span> <span word="forces">forces</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="generally">generally</span> <span word="planted">planted</span> <span word="close">close</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="placewhere">placewhere</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="were">were</span> <span word="made">made</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="territory">territory</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="bombmaker">bombmaker</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="tribal">tribal</span> <span word="kin">kin</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="co">co</span>-<span word="religionists">religionists</span>.　　特别地来说，占领军的炸弹通常安装在离制造地很近的地方，就在炸弹制造者族亲或同教派人员的地盘上。　　<span word="That">That</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="surprise">surprise</span>, <span word="of">of</span> <span word="course">course</span>. <span word="Kin">Kin</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="co">co</span>-<span word="religionists">religionists</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="reliable">reliable</span> <span word="allies">allies</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="warswhere">warswhere</span> <span word="different">different</span> <span word="guerrilla">guerrilla</span> <span word="groups">groups</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="always">always</span> <span word="see">see</span> <span word="eye">eye</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="eye">eye</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="objectives">objectives</span>, <span word="beyond">beyond</span> <span word="theimmediate">theimmediate</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="driving">driving</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="foreign">foreign</span> <span word="troops">troops</span>.　　这当然不足为奇。亲属和同教派是不同游击队出没的战争中最为可靠的同盟。这些游击队除了立刻赶走外国军队以外，可能无法总是有统一的目标。　　<span word="But">But</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="does">does</span> <span word="give">give</span> <span word="Major">Major</span> <span word="Shakarian">Shakarian</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="team">team</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="convenient">convenient</span> <span word="way">way</span> <span word="in">in</span>.　　这给了<span word="Shakarian">Shakarian</span>少校和他的团队一个方便的切入口。　　<span word="Using">Using</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="co">co</span>-<span word="ordinates">ordinates</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="previously">previously</span> <span word="bombed">bombed</span> <span word="sites">sites</span>, <span word="data">data</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="topographical">topographical</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="streetmaps">streetmaps</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="information">information</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="area">area</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="ethnic">ethnic</span>, <span word="linguistic">linguistic</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="confessional">confessional</span> <span word="human">human</span> <span word="terrain">terrain</span>,<span word="SCARE">SCARE</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="able">able</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="predict">predict</span> <span word="where">where</span> <span word="guerrillas">guerrillas</span> <span word="munition">munition</span> <span word="dumps">dumps</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="within">within</span> <span word="about">about</span> 700<span word="metres">metres</span>.　　利用以前的炸弹安装地的坐标，来自地理和街道地图的信息数据，以及当地民族的信息，语言，和人类地域的自白，<span word="SCARE">SCARE</span>能够在大约700米内预测出游击队的军需存放处。　　<span word="That">That</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="perfect">perfect</span>, <span word="but">but</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="close">close</span> <span word="enough">enough</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="able">able</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="focus">focus</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="search">search</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="useful">useful</span> <span word="way">way</span>.　　那并非完美，但是已经足够接近有效地集中搜索了。　　<span word="Moreover">Moreover</span>, <span word="SCARE">SCARE</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="focus">focus</span> <span word="should">should</span> <span word="soon">soon</span> <span word="become">become</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="precise">precise</span>.　　此外， <span word="SCARE">SCARE</span>的焦点很快会更加精准。　　<span word="Major">Major</span> <span word="Shakarian">Shakarian</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="latest">latest</span> <span word="trick">trick</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="include">include</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="phone">phone</span>-<span word="traffic">traffic</span> <span word="patterns">patterns</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="calculations">calculations</span>.　　<span word="Shakarian">Shakarian</span>少校最新的计划将包括计算电话通路的模式。　　<span word="An">An</span> <span word="upgraded">upgraded</span> <span word="version">version</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="program">program</span>, <span word="employing">employing</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="trick">trick</span>, <span word="will">will</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="created">created</span> <span word="next">next</span> <span word="month">month</span>.　　本计划的升级版将会使用这项策略，未来的几个月就将实现。　　<span word="All">All</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="which">which</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="useful">useful</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="dealing">dealing</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="conflict">conflict</span> <span word="once">once</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="started">started</span>.　　一旦开始，所有的这一切都有利于处理冲突。　　<span word="But">But</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="better">better</span>, <span word="if">if</span> <span word="possible">possible</span>, <span word="to">to</span> <span word="see">see</span> <span word="what">what</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="happen">happen</span> <span word="before">before</span> <span word="things">things</span> <span word="get">get</span> <span word="going">going</span>.　　然而，如果可能的话，最好看到在事情继续以前，有什么可能会发生。　　<span word="And">And</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="that">that</span>, <span word="America">America</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="navy">navy</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="project">project</span> <span word="called">called</span> <span word="RiftLand">RiftLand</span>.　　为此，美国海军，有一个项目名为分裂的土地。　　<span word="RiftLand">RiftLand</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="being">being</span> <span word="developed">developed</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="navy">navy</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="behalf">behalf</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="Claudio">Claudio</span> <span word="Cioffi">Cioffi</span>-<span word="Revilla">Revilla</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="professor">professor</span> <span word="ofcomputational">ofcomputational</span> <span word="social">social</span> <span word="science">science</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="George">George</span> <span word="Mason">Mason</span> <span word="University">University</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Virginia">Virginia</span>.　　分裂的土地是由维吉尼亚的乔治梅森大学的计算社会科学教授<span word="Claudio">Claudio</span> <span word="Cioffi">Cioffi</span>-<span word="Revilla">Revilla</span>为代表开发的。　　<span word="It">It</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="specific">specific</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="part">part</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="East">East</span> <span word="Africa">Africa</span> <span word="around">around</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Great">Great</span> <span word="Rift">Rift</span> <span word="Valley">Valley</span>.　　它尤其针对东非地区大裂谷一带。这也是它名称的由来。　　<span word="That">That</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="area">area</span> <span word="includes">includes</span> <span word="Congo">Congo</span>, <span word="Ethiopia">Ethiopia</span>, <span word="Rwanda">Rwanda</span>, <span word="Somalia">Somalia</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Uganda">Uganda</span>, <span word="each">each</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="which">which</span> <span word="hasbeen">hasbeen</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="scene">scene</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="present">present</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="recent">recent</span> <span word="civil">civil</span> <span word="strife">strife</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="no">no</span> <span word="coincidence">coincidence</span>.　　这一地区包括刚果，埃塞俄比亚，路万达，索马里，和乌干达，每一个国家目前或者最近都经历了内战，这并非偶然。　　<span word="But">But</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="ideas">ideas</span> <span word="involved">involved</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="generalised">generalised</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="parts">parts</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="world">world</span>, <span word="with">with</span> <span word="due">due</span> <span word="alteration">alteration</span> <span word="forlocal">forlocal</span> <span word="conditions">conditions</span>.　　然而，这个说法经过根据当地条件的少许变动，也可以推及世界其他地区，　　<span word="Broadly">Broadly</span>, <span word="RiftLand">RiftLand</span> <span word="works">works</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="chewing">chewing</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="way">way</span> <span word="through">through</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="range">range</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="collected">collected</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="charities">charities</span>,<span word="academics">academics</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="government">government</span> <span word="agencies">agencies</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="uses">uses</span> <span word="these">these</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="predict">predict</span> <span word="where">where</span> <span word="groups">groups</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="people">people</span> <span word="willgo">willgo</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="whom">whom</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="clash">clash</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="times">times</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="drought">drought</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="armed">armed</span> <span word="conflict">conflict</span>.　　广义上来说，分裂的土地通过精细分析由慈善组织，学术机构和政府收集来的数据，由此来预测哪一伙人会行动，又会跟谁发生武装冲突。　　<span word="Dr">Dr</span> <span word="Cioffi">Cioffi</span>-<span word="Revilla">Revilla</span> <span word="gives">gives</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="example">example</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="tribe">tribe</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="nomadic">nomadic</span> <span word="herders">herders</span> <span word="known">known</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="sharing">sharing</span> <span word="itsnotions">itsnotions</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="veterinary">veterinary</span> <span word="medicine">medicine</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="others">others</span>.　　<span word="Cioffi">Cioffi</span>-<span word="Revilla">Revilla</span>博士以一个对外出口兽医药品的游牧部落举了一个例子。　　<span word="This">This</span> <span word="tribe">tribe</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="model">model</span> <span word="predicts">predicts</span>, <span word="will">will</span> <span word="reckon">reckon</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="safer">safer</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="cross">cross</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="lands">lands</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="groups">groups</span> <span word="who">who</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="relyon">relyon</span> <span word="keeping">keeping</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="animals">animals</span> <span word="healthy">healthy</span>.　　模型预测，这个部落将会估计它将安全地穿过那些依赖于动物健康的群落的土地，　　<span word="Another">Another</span> <span word="point">point</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="tribes">tribes</span> <span word="who">who</span> <span word="own">own</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="radio">radio</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="mobile">mobile</span> <span word="phone">phone</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="steer">steer</span> <span word="clear">clear</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="roads">roads</span> <span word="afternews">afternews</span> <span word="reports">reports</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="government">government</span> <span word="atrocities">atrocities</span> <span word="against">against</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="kin">kin</span>.　　另外一个观点是那些拥有收音机或者手机的群落在资讯中说政府对他们的亲属施暴以后会避开大路。　　<span word="A">A</span> <span word="third">third</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="movement">movement</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="herdsmen">herdsmen</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="predicted">predicted</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="satellite">satellite</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="onthe">onthe</span> <span word="condition">condition</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="pasture">pasture</span> <span word="lands">lands</span>, <span word="modified">modified</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="knowledge">knowledge</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="what">what</span> <span word="Dr">Dr</span> <span word="Cioffi">Cioffi</span>-<span word="Revilla">Revilla</span> <span word="calls">calls</span> <span word="thecomplex">thecomplex</span> <span word="network">network</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="IOUs">IOUs</span> <span word="between">between</span> <span word="tribes">tribes</span>: <span word="which">which</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="currently">currently</span> <span word="hostile">hostile</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="another">another</span>, <span word="andwho">andwho</span> <span word="owes">owes</span> <span word="whom">whom</span> <span word="favours">favours</span>.　　还有一个是牧者们的行动可以由卫星根据草原的状况预测出来，再加上这些部落之间<span word="Cioffi">Cioffi</span>-<span word="Revilla">Revilla</span>博士称之为复杂的借贷关系网的观点。他们，目前彼此敌对，也彼此相欠。　　<span word="Hostile">Hostile</span> <span word="sentiments">sentiments</span>　　敌对情绪　　<span word="The">The</span> <span word="sort">sort</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="conflict">conflict</span> <span word="dealt">dealt</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="RiftLanda">RiftLanda</span> <span word="war">war</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="against">against</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="countries">countries</span> <span word="where">where</span> <span word="centralgovernment">centralgovernment</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="light">light</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="non">non</span>-<span word="existenthas">existenthas</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="particularly">particularly</span> <span word="characteristic">characteristic</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="part">part</span> <span word="ofAfrica">ofAfrica</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="recent">recent</span> <span word="years">years</span>.　　这类由分裂的土地处理的战争冲突，也是在那些中央政府弱势或者无政府的国家出现的一种混战，已经成为非洲这一局部地区近年来战争的特点。　　<span word="Further">Further</span> <span word="north">north</span>, <span word="where">where</span> <span word="states">states</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="stronger">stronger</span>, <span word="urban">urban</span> <span word="insurrection">insurrection</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="sort">sort</span> <span word="seen">seen</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="beginningof">beginningof</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Arab">Arab</span> <span word="spring">spring</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="common">common</span> <span word="threat">threat</span>.　　再往北，那些国家政府相对强势，这种城镇叛乱在阿拉伯的春天之初是比较常见的威胁。　　<span word="Politicians">Politicians</span> <span word="faced">faced</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="uprisings">uprisings</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="thus">thus</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="interested">interested</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="yet">yet</span> <span word="another">another</span> <span word="piece">piece</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="software">software</span>,<span word="known">known</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="Condor">Condor</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="developed">developed</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="Peter">Peter</span> <span word="Gloor">Gloor</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Massachusetts">Massachusetts</span> <span word="Institute">Institute</span> <span word="ofTechnology">ofTechnology</span>.　　政治家们面临着，这些暴乱势力可能对另一个软件叫做秃鹰感兴趣。它是由麻省理工的<span word="Peter">Peter</span> <span word="Gloor">Gloor</span>开发的。　　<span word="Dr">Dr</span> <span word="Gloor">Gloor</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="certainly">certainly</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="business">business</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="saving">saving</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="jobs">jobs</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Middle">Middle</span>-<span word="Eastern">Eastern</span> <span word="dictators">dictators</span>. <span word="He">He</span> <span word="isactually">isactually</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="consultant">consultant</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Christian">Christian</span> <span word="Democratic">Democratic</span> <span word="Union">Union</span>, <span word="Germany">Germany</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="largest">largest</span> <span word="political">political</span> <span word="party">party</span>.　　<span word="Gloor">Gloor</span>博士绝不是要为中东的独裁者们保住工作。事实上他是德国最大政党基督教民主联盟的顾问。　　<span word="But">But</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="politicians">politicians</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="power">power</span>, <span word="whether">whether</span> <span word="democrats">democrats</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="dictators">dictators</span>, <span word="share">share</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="distaste">distaste</span> <span word="fordemonstrations">fordemonstrations</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="protests">protests</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="streets">streets</span>.　　不过所有当权的政治家们，无论是民主主义者还是独裁者，都不会喜欢大街上的示威抗议活动。　　<span word="Condor">Condor</span> <span word="works">works</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="sifting">sifting</span> <span word="through">through</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="Twitter">Twitter</span>, <span word="Facebook">Facebook</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="social">social</span> <span word="media">media</span>, <span word="andusing">andusing</span> <span word="them">them</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="predict">predict</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="public">public</span> <span word="protest">protest</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="evolve">evolve</span>.　　秃鹰筛选来自微博，<span word="facebook">facebook</span>和其他社会媒体的数据信息，利用他们预测公众抗议将如何发展。　　<span word="It">It</span> <span word="does">does</span> <span word="so">so</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="performing">performing</span> <span word="what">what</span> <span word="Dr">Dr</span> <span word="Gloor">Gloor</span> <span word="calls">calls</span> <span word="sentiment">sentiment</span> <span word="analysis">analysis</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="data">data</span>.　　秃鹰是通过对信息进行<span word="Gloor">Gloor</span>博士所说的情绪分析做到这一点的。　　<span word="Sentiment">Sentiment</span> <span word="analysis">analysis</span> <span word="first">first</span> <span word="classifies">classifies</span> <span word="protesters">protesters</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="clout">clout</span>.　　情绪分析首先将抗议者们根据他们的影响力分类，　　<span word="An">An</span> <span word="influential">influential</span> <span word="Twitter">Twitter</span> <span word="user">user</span>, <span word="for">for</span> <span word="instance">instance</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="who">who</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="many">many</span> <span word="followers">followers</span> <span word="but">but</span> <span word="follows">follows</span> <span word="fewpeople">fewpeople</span> <span word="himself">himself</span>.　　比如说，一位具有影响力的微博用户拥有很多粉丝，但是他自己却只关注极少数人。他的发言往往是欢快的，包含着太好了，真有趣，太有趣了，真开心，有趣的电影，你会喜欢的等等诸如此类的词语或短语。　　<span word="His">His</span> <span word="tweets">tweets</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="typically">typically</span> <span word="upbeat">upbeat</span>, <span word="are">are</span> <span word="rapidly">rapidly</span> <span word="retweeted">retweeted</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="appear">appear</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="sway">sway</span> <span word="others">others</span>.　　这些微博很快会赢得回复，明显影响其他人。　　<span word="In">In</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="nod">nod</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="methods">methods</span> <span word="developed">developed</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="Google">Google</span>, <span word="Dr">Dr</span> <span word="Gloor">Gloor</span> <span word="refers">refers</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="process">process</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="PageRankingfor">PageRankingfor</span> <span word="people">people</span>.　　为了和谷歌开发的技术相匹配，<span word="Gloor">Gloor</span>博士将这一过程称为人物网页等级搜索。　　<span word="Having">Having</span> <span word="thus">thus</span> <span word="ranked">ranked</span> <span word="protesters">protesters</span>, <span word="Condor">Condor</span> <span word="then">then</span> <span word="follows">follows</span> <span word="those">those</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="top">top</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="list">list</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="see">see</span> <span word="howtheir">howtheir</span> <span word="output">output</span> <span word="changes">changes</span>.　　有了这些分级的抗议者，秃鹰接下来会关注表单上排位最高的几位，看他们的发言如何变化。　　<span word="Dr">Dr</span> <span word="Gloor">Gloor</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="found">found</span> <span word="that">that</span>, <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Western">Western</span> <span word="countries">countries</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="least">least</span>, <span word="non">non</span>-<span word="violent">violent</span> <span word="protest">protest</span> <span word="movementsbegin">movementsbegin</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="burn">burn</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="upbeat">upbeat</span> <span word="tweets">tweets</span> <span word="turn">turn</span> <span word="negative">negative</span>, <span word="with">with</span> <span word="not">not</span>, <span word="never">never</span>, <span word="lame">lame</span>, <span word="I">I</span> <span word="hate">hate</span>, <span word="idiotand">idiotand</span> <span word="so">so</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="becoming">becoming</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="frequent">frequent</span>.　　<span word="Gloor">Gloor</span>博士发现，至少在西方国家，当欢快的发言变得消极， 不，从不，蹩脚的，我讨厌，傻瓜等频繁出现的时候，非暴力的抗议行动就开始爆发了。　　<span word="Abundant">Abundant</span> <span word="complaints">complaints</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="idiots">idiots</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="government">government</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="ideologically">ideologically</span> <span word="opposed">opposed</span> <span word="group">group</span> <span word="area">area</span> <span word="good">good</span> <span word="signal">signal</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="movement">movement</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="decline">decline</span>.　　大量对政府的傻瓜们或者假想敌团体的抱怨的出现都是行动落幕的标志。　　<span word="Complaints">Complaints</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="idiots">idiots</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="own">own</span> <span word="movement">movement</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="infelicities">infelicities</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="theft">theft</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="beer">beer</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="afellow">afellow</span> <span word="demonstrator">demonstrator</span> <span word="suggest">suggest</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="whole">whole</span> <span word="thing">thing</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="almost">almost</span> <span word="over">over</span>.　　对自身行动中傻瓜们的抱怨或者其他示威者遭遇的偷窃啤酒的不幸标志着整个事情几乎快结束了。　　<span word="Condor">Condor</span>, <span word="then">then</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="good">good</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="forecasting">forecasting</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="course">course</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="existing">existing</span> <span word="protests">protests</span>.　　然后秃鹰擅长预测剩下的抗议者的行动。　　<span word="Even">Even</span> <span word="better">better</span>, <span word="from">from</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="politicians">politicians</span> <span word="point">point</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="view">view</span>, <span word="would">would</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="predict">predict</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="protests">protests</span> <span word="before">before</span> <span word="theyoccur">theyoccur</span>. <span word="Not">Not</span> <span word="surprisingly">surprisingly</span>, <span word="several">several</span> <span word="groups">groups</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="researchers">researchers</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="trying">trying</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="do">do</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="too">too</span>.　　从政治家的观点看来，最好能在抗议活动爆发之前就能做出预测。不足为奇，有很多研究小组也在尝试这么做。　　<span word="Aptima">Aptima</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="firm">firm</span> <span word="based">based</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Woburn">Woburn</span>, <span word="Massachusetts">Massachusetts</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="one">one</span>.　　<span word="Aptima">Aptima</span>，在马萨诸塞州沃本市的一家公司就是其中之一。　　<span word="Its">Its</span> <span word="program">program</span>, <span word="called">called</span> <span word="E">E</span>-<span word="MEME">MEME</span> <span word="uses">uses</span> <span word="sentiment">sentiment</span> <span word="analysis">analysis</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="see">see</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="opinions">opinions</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="states">states</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="mindflow">mindflow</span> <span word="across">across</span> <span word="entire">entire</span> <span word="populations">populations</span>, <span word="not">not</span> <span word="just">just</span> <span word="activists">activists</span>.　　它的项目叫做<span word="E">E</span>-<span word="MEME">MEME</span>利用情绪分析法来看观点和说明是如何再人群中蔓延的，而不仅仅是在活跃分子中。　　<span word="It">It</span> <span word="employs">employs</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="online">online</span> <span word="news">news</span> <span word="sources">sources</span>, <span word="blogs">blogs</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Twitter">Twitter</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="attempts">attempts</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="rank">rank</span> <span word="thesusceptibility">thesusceptibility</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="certain">certain</span> <span word="parts">parts</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="populace">populace</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="specific">specific</span> <span word="ideas">ideas</span>.　　它利用来自在线资讯，博客，微博的信息数据，尝试将这一部分民众对特殊观点的敏感度进行排位。　　<span word="According">According</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="Robert">Robert</span> <span word="McCormack">McCormack</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="project">project</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="chief">chief</span> <span word="technologist">technologist</span>, <span word="E">E</span>-<span word="MEME">MEME</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="determinethings">determinethings</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="different">different</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="which">which</span> <span word="places">places</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Egypt">Egypt</span> <span word="contain">contain</span> <span word="people">people</span> <span word="who">who</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="care">care</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="lot">lot</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="borderincident">borderincident</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="Israel">Israel</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="which">which</span> <span word="parts">parts</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="country">country</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="need">need</span> <span word="water">water</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="times">times</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="drought">drought</span>.　　据本项目的主要技术负责人<span word="Robert">Robert</span> <span word="McCormack">McCormack</span>所说，<span word="E">E</span>-<span word="MEME">MEME</span>能够判定埃及哪些地方的某一群人对和以色列边境冲突比较关心，哪些地方在干旱时特别需要水，这些不同之处。</p>

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