自由互换
<p> 2015复习正是强化复习阶段，在考研英语中占了40分，所以考研英语阅读是英语科目中重要的一项。名师老师曾建议过考研生需要坚持每天泛读10-15分钟的英文原刊。强烈推荐了杂志《经济学人》.杂志中的文章也是考研英语的主要材料来源.希望考研考生认真阅读，快速提高考研英语阅读水平。 <span word="Free">Free</span> <span word="exchange">exchange</span> 自由互换 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="once">once</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="future">future</span> <span word="currency">currency</span> 货币的今天明天 <span word="A">A</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="book">book</span> <span word="examines">examines</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="world">world</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="love">love</span>-<span word="haterelationship">haterelationship</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span> 新书出炉：世界与美元之间的爱恨情仇 <span word="LUMPY">LUMPY</span>, <span word="unpredictable">unpredictable</span>, <span word="potentially">potentially</span> <span word="large">large</span>: <span word="that">that</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="Tim">Tim</span> <span word="Geithner">Geithner</span>, <span word="then">then</span> <span word="head">head</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="NewYork">NewYork</span> <span word="Federal">Federal</span> <span word="Reserve">Reserve</span>, <span word="described">described</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="need">need</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="dollars">dollars</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="emerging">emerging</span> <span word="economies">economies</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="darkdays">darkdays</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="October">October</span> 2008, <span word="according">according</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="transcripts">transcripts</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="Fed">Fed</span> <span word="meeting">meeting</span> <span word="released">released</span> <span word="last">last</span> <span word="month">month</span>. 根据上个月公布的联邦会议记录，起伏不定，难以预测，潜在市场巨大，这是时任纽约联邦储备长的蒂姆?盖特纳在2008年10月的黑暗日子里所描绘的新兴经济体对美元的需求。 <span word="To">To</span> <span word="help">help</span> <span word="smooth">smooth</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="those">those</span> <span word="lumps">lumps</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Fed">Fed</span> <span word="offered">offered</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="swap">swap</span> <span word="currencies">currencies</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="four">four</span> <span word="favouredcentral">favouredcentral</span> <span word="banks">banks</span>, <span word="as">as</span> <span word="far">far</span> <span word="off">off</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="South">South</span> <span word="Korea">Korea</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Singapore">Singapore</span>. 为了平复需求中的大起大落，美联储决定与备受青睐的四家中央银行互换货币，远及韩国和新加坡。 <span word="They">They</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="exchange">exchange</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="own">own</span> <span word="money">money</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="dollars">dollars</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="prevailing">prevailing</span> <span word="exchange">exchange</span> <span word="rate">rate</span>. 只要承诺日后将以同样的汇率兑换回来，这些银行可以用现行汇率把他们的货币换成美元。 <span word="Why">Why</span> <span word="did">did</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Fed">Fed</span> <span word="decide">decide</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="reach">reach</span> <span word="so">so</span> <span word="far">far</span> <span word="beyond">beyond</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="shores">shores</span>? 为什么美联储会如此大动干戈? <span word="It">It</span> <span word="worried">worried</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="stress">stress</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="financially">financially</span> <span word="connected">connected</span> <span word="emerging">emerging</span> <span word="economy">economy</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="eventually">eventually</span> <span word="hurtAmerica">hurtAmerica</span>. 因为它担心那些与它利益密切相关的新兴经济体的困境，最终会殃及美国。 <span word="But">But</span> <span word="Mr">Mr</span> <span word="Geithner">Geithner</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="hinted">hinted</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="another">another</span> <span word="motive">motive</span>. 但是盖特纳也暗示了另外一个动机： <span word="The">The</span> <span word="privilege">privilege</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="being">being</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="reserve">reserve</span> <span word="currency">currency</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="world">world</span> <span word="comes">comes</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="burdens">burdens</span>, <span word="he">he</span> <span word="said">said</span>. 美元作为世界储备货币这一特殊名分，实在是让人欢喜让人忧。 <span word="That">That</span> <span word="privilege">privilege</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="subject">subject</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="book">book</span>, <span word="The">The</span> <span word="Dollar">Dollar</span> <span word="Trap">Trap</span>, <span word="by">by</span> <span word="Eswar">Eswar</span> <span word="Prasad">Prasad</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="CornellUniversity">CornellUniversity</span>, <span word="who">who</span> <span word="shares">shares</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="world">world</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="ambivalence">ambivalence</span> <span word="towards">towards</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="currency">currency</span>. 康奈尔大学的埃斯瓦尔?普拉萨德同样对美元喜忧参半。他在新书《美元之困》中讲述的正是美元作为世界储备货币的尴尬处境。 <span word="The">The</span> 2008 <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="crisis">crisis</span> <span word="might">might</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="expected">expected</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="erode">erode</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="prominence">prominence</span>. 2008年的金融危机貌似削弱了美元在全球的统领地位。 <span word="Instead">Instead</span>, <span word="he">he</span> <span word="argues">argues</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="cemented">cemented</span> <span word="it">it</span>. 可普拉萨德论证道，事实恰恰相反。 <span word="America">America</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="fragility">fragility</span> <span word="was">was</span>, <span word="paradoxically">paradoxically</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="source">source</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="strength">strength</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="currency">currency</span>. 金融危机反而加强了这一地位。美国的不景气偏偏是其货币坚挺的源头之一。 <span word="In">In</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="last">last</span> <span word="four">four</span> <span word="months">months</span> <span word="of">of</span> 2008 <span word="America">America</span> <span word="attracted">attracted</span> <span word="net">net</span> <span word="capital">capital</span> <span word="inflows">inflows</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="half">half</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="trillion">trillion</span> <span word="dollars">dollars</span>. 在2008年的最后四个月中，美国取得了5000亿美元的资本净流入。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="haven">haven</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="tumultuous">tumultuous</span> <span word="times">times</span>, <span word="even">even</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="tumult">tumult</span> <span word="originated">originated</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Americaitself">Americaitself</span>. 在动荡不定的时期即使这样的动荡缘起美国美元依旧是避风港湾。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="crisis">crisis</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="shattered">shattered</span> <span word="conventional">conventional</span> <span word="views">views</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="adequate">adequate</span> <span word="level">level</span> <span word="offoreign">offoreign</span>-<span word="exchange">exchange</span> <span word="reserves">reserves</span>, <span word="prompting">prompting</span> <span word="emerging">emerging</span> <span word="economies">economies</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="large">large</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span> <span word="hoards">hoards</span> <span word="tohoard">tohoard</span> <span word="even">even</span> <span word="more">more</span>. 这场危机同时也颠覆了对外汇储备应保持适当水平的传统观念，促使那些原本就拥有庞大美元储备的新兴经济体囤积更多的美元。 <span word="Finally">Finally</span>, <span word="America">America</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="slump">slump</span> <span word="forced">forced</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Fed">Fed</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="ease">ease</span> <span word="monetary">monetary</span> <span word="policy">policy</span> <span word="dramatically">dramatically</span>. 最终，美国的不景气使得美联储放松了货币政策。 <span word="In">In</span> <span word="response">response</span>, <span word="central">central</span> <span word="banks">banks</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="emerging">emerging</span> <span word="economies">economies</span> <span word="bought">bought</span> <span word="dollars">dollars</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="stop">stop</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="owncurrencies">owncurrencies</span> <span word="rising">rising</span> <span word="too">too</span> <span word="fast">fast</span>. 作为回应，新兴经济体的中央银行买入美元，以阻止他们的货币升值过快。 <span word="Could">Could</span> <span word="Fed">Fed</span> <span word="swap">swap</span> <span word="lines">lines</span> <span word="serve">serve</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="less">less</span> <span word="costly">costly</span> <span word="alternative">alternative</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="rampant">rampant</span> <span word="reserveaccumulation">reserveaccumulation</span>? 美联储的互换路线能够为目前愈演愈烈的外汇储备囤积现象开辟一条代价较小的出路吗? <span word="If">If</span> <span word="central">central</span> <span word="banks">banks</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="obtain">obtain</span> <span word="dollars">dollars</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Fed">Fed</span> <span word="whenever">whenever</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="need">need</span> <span word="arose">arose</span>, <span word="they">they</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="notneed">notneed</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="husband">husband</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="own">own</span> <span word="supplies">supplies</span>. 如果这些央行能够按需从美联储那里买入美元，他们就不必为自己的储备精打细算了。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="demand">demand</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="there">there</span>: <span word="India">India</span>, <span word="Indonesia">Indonesia</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Dominican">Dominican</span> <span word="Republic">Republic</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Peru">Peru</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="madeinquiries">madeinquiries</span>. 需求是永远存在的：印度，印度尼西亚，多明尼加共和国和秘鲁都已经在询问此事。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="swap">swap</span> <span word="lines">lines</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="good">good</span> <span word="business">business</span>: <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Fed">Fed</span> <span word="keeps">keeps</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="interest">interest</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="foreign">foreign</span> <span word="central">central</span> <span word="bank">bank</span> <span word="sloans">sloans</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="banks">banks</span>, <span word="even">even</span> <span word="though">though</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="central">central</span> <span word="bank">bank</span> <span word="bears">bears</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="credit">credit</span> <span word="risk">risk</span>. 互换确实是桩好买卖：美联储得以赚取其他外国央行在的借款利息，信用风险也由外国央行承担。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="Fed">Fed</span> <span word="earned">earned</span> 6.84% <span word="from">from</span> <span word="South">South</span> <span word="Korea">Korea</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="first">first</span> <span word="swap">swap</span>, <span word="for">for</span> <span word="example">example</span>. 举例来说，单是与韩国的第一次货币互换，美联储就得以将6.84%的利息纳入囊中。 <span word="But">But</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="business">business</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Fed">Fed</span> <span word="wants">wants</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="in">in</span>. 然而，这一买卖美联储却并没想插手。 <span word="As">As</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="official">official</span> <span word="said">said</span>, <span word="We">We</span> <span word="re">re</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="advertising">advertising</span>. 正如一位官员所说：我们可不打算广而告之。 <span word="Swap">Swap</span> <span word="lines">lines</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="help">help</span> <span word="emerging">emerging</span> <span word="economies">economies</span> <span word="endure">endure</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="reign">reign</span>. 货币互换路线确实能够帮助新兴经济体在美元的统领之下继续发展。 <span word="But">But</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="reign">reign</span> <span word="endure">endure</span>? <span word="Mr">Mr</span> <span word="Prasad">Prasad</span> <span word="thinks">thinks</span> <span word="so">so</span>. 但是这统领本身是否还来日方长?普拉萨德先生的答案是肯定的。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="position">position</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="suboptimal">suboptimal</span> <span word="but">but</span> <span word="stable">stable</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="self">self</span>-<span word="reinforcing">reinforcing</span>, <span word="he">he</span> <span word="writes">writes</span>. 他写道：目前美元的地位虽不是最理想的，但却非常稳定，同时也能自我稳固。 <span word="Much">Much</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="Mr">Mr</span> <span word="Prasad">Prasad</span> <span word="finds">finds</span> <span word="America">America</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="privileges">privileges</span> <span word="distasteful">distasteful</span>, <span word="his">his</span> <span word="book">book</span> <span word="points">points</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="country">country</span> <span word="squalifications">squalifications</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="job">job</span>. 他发现，尽管美元这种特权非常不受欢迎，美国这个国家还是能够担此重任的。 <span word="America">America</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="only">only</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="world">world</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="biggest">biggest</span> <span word="economy">economy</span>, <span word="but">but</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="among">among</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="sophisticated">sophisticated</span>. 美国不仅仅是世界上最大的经济体，也是最错综复杂的经济体之一。 <span word="Size">Size</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="sophistication">sophistication</span> <span word="do">do</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="always">always</span> <span word="go">go</span> <span word="together">together</span>. 规模和复杂度并不总是相依而存。 <span word="In">In</span> <span word="the">the</span> 1900<span word="s">s</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="pound">pound</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="reserve">reserve</span> <span word="currency">currency</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Britain">Britain</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="system">system</span> <span word="hadthe">hadthe</span> <span word="widest">widest</span> <span word="reach">reach</span>. 20世纪初期，英镑还是全球的储备货币，英国的金融体系触及广泛。 <span word="But">But</span> <span word="America">America</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="bigger">bigger</span> <span word="economy">economy</span>. 但在那个时候，美国已经是最大的经济体了。 <span word="In">In</span> <span word="the">the</span> 2020<span word="s">s</span> <span word="China">China</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="probably">probably</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="world">world</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="biggest">biggest</span> <span word="economy">economy</span>, <span word="but">but</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="mostadvanced">mostadvanced</span>. 在21世纪20年代，中国极有可能成为世界上最大的经济体，但绝不是最先进的。 <span word="America">America</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="sophistication">sophistication</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="reflected">reflected</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="depth">depth</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="markets">markets</span>. 美国人的智慧在金融市场的复杂性上得到了体现; <span word="It">It</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="unusually">unusually</span> <span word="good">good</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="creating">creating</span> <span word="tradeable">tradeable</span> <span word="claims">claims</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="profits">profits</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="revenues">revenues</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="economygenerates">economygenerates</span>. 他们极为擅长以经济体产生的利润和收入为基础，创造多种多样的可交易性金融产品。 <span word="In">In</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="primitive">primitive</span> <span word="system">system</span>, <span word="these">these</span> <span word="spoils">spoils</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="mostly">mostly</span> <span word="accrue">accrue</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="state">state</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="tycoons">tycoons</span>; <span word="inAmerica">inAmerica</span>, <span word="they">they</span> <span word="back">back</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="vast">vast</span> <span word="range">range</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="assets">assets</span>. 在一个相对原始的体系内，这些战利品将主要归于国家或行业龙头，但在美国，它们会以多样的金融资产形式回馈给市场。 <span word="Mr">Mr</span> <span word="Prasad">Prasad</span> <span word="draws">draws</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="obvious">obvious</span> <span word="contrast">contrast</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="China">China</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="currency">currency</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="yuan">yuan</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="widelyhyped">widelyhyped</span> <span word="alternative">alternative</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span>. 普拉萨德将最近炒得火热的替代货币人民币与美元相比较，结果出现明显的反差： <span word="China">China</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="now">now</span> <span word="over">over</span> <span word="half">half</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="size">size</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="America">America</span> <span word="s">s</span>. 中国当前的<span word="GDP">GDP</span>总额超过美国的一半， <span word="But">But</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="debt">debt</span> <span word="markets">markets</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="one">one</span>-<span word="eighth">eighth</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="big">big</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="foreigners">foreigners</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="permitted">permitted</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="own">own</span> <span word="only">only</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="tinyfraction">tinyfraction</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="them">them</span>. 但其债务市场规模仅仅是美国的八分之一，外债只被允许占其中的一小部分。 <span word="China">China</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="low">low</span> <span word="central">central</span>-<span word="government">government</span> <span word="debt">debt</span> <span word="should">should</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="source">source</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="strength">strength</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="currency">currency</span>. 中国为数不多的中央国债应该是人民币力量的来源之一， <span word="But">But</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="limits">limits</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="volume">volume</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="instruments">instruments</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="offer">offer</span>. 但这同时也限制了其所能提供的金融工具总量。 <span word="America">America</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="big">big</span> <span word="external">external</span> <span word="balance">balance</span>-<span word="sheet">sheet</span>, <span word="if">if</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="obviously">obviously</span> <span word="strong">strong</span> <span word="one">one</span>. 美国的外部资产负债表并不强劲却足够庞大， <span word="Its">Its</span> <span word="foreign">foreign</span> <span word="liabilities">liabilities</span> <span word="exceed">exceed</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="overseas">overseas</span> <span word="assets">assets</span>. 其对外负债超过了其海外资产， <span word="But">But</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="worrying">worrying</span> <span word="fact">fact</span> <span word="conceals">conceals</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="saving">saving</span> <span word="grace">grace</span>: <span word="its">its</span> <span word="foreign">foreign</span> <span word="assets">assets</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="unusually">unusually</span> <span word="adventurousand">adventurousand</span> <span word="lucrative">lucrative</span>. 但这个令人担忧的事实掩盖了其可取之处：美国对外投资冒险精神十足且利润丰厚。 <span word="Its">Its</span> <span word="liabilities">liabilities</span>, <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="hand">hand</span>, <span word="are">are</span> <span word="largely">largely</span> <span word="liquid">liquid</span>, <span word="safe">safe</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="low">low</span>-<span word="yielding">yielding</span>. 而其负债大多流动性强，安全性高，收益率低。 <span word="America">America</span> <span word="therefore">therefore</span> <span word="earns">earns</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="foreign">foreign</span> <span word="assets">assets</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="pays">pays</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="foreign">foreign</span> <span word="liabilities">liabilities</span>. 因此，美国从海外资产获得的收益大于它用于外债的支出。 <span word="Alongside">Alongside</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="maturity">maturity</span>, <span word="America">America</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="greying">greying</span> <span word="population">population</span>. <span word="This">This</span> <span word="ageing">ageing</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="asource">asource</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="weakness">weakness</span>. 除了经济成熟度高，美国也背负着人口老龄化的问题。老龄化是经济疲软的根源， <span word="But">But</span>, <span word="Mr">Mr</span> <span word="Prasad">Prasad</span> <span word="argues">argues</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="another">another</span> <span word="reason">reason</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="appeal">appeal</span>. 但普拉萨德认为，这也可能是美元受全球追捧的另一个原因。 <span word="America">America</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="pensioners">pensioners</span> <span word="hold">hold</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="big">big</span> <span word="chunk">chunk</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="government">government</span> <span word="debt">debt</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="held">held</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="foreigners">foreigners</span>. 美国退休人员持有的国债量远高于外债持有者。 <span word="A">A</span> <span word="formidable">formidable</span> <span word="political">political</span> <span word="constituency">constituency</span>, <span word="they">they</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="allow">allow</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="government">government</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="inflate">inflate</span> <span word="away">away</span> <span word="thevalue">thevalue</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="these">these</span> <span word="claims">claims</span>. 作为一个政治力量强大的选民团体，他们不会允许政府通过通胀消化掉这些债权的价值。 <span word="Thus">Thus</span> <span word="America">America</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="powerful">powerful</span> <span word="pensioners">pensioners</span> <span word="serve">serve</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="protect">protect</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="interests">interests</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="generous">generous</span> <span word="foreigncreditors">foreigncreditors</span>. 因此，退休人员巨大的影响力保护了大量外国债权人的利益。 <span word="America">America</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="sophistication">sophistication</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="final">final</span> <span word="implication">implication</span>: <span word="the">the</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="no">no</span> <span word="long">long</span>-<span word="term">term</span> <span word="tendencyto">tendencyto</span> <span word="strengthen">strengthen</span>. 美国成熟的经济体还有一项关键的暗示：美元没有长远走高的趋势。 <span word="That">That</span> <span word="again">again</span> <span word="contrasts">contrasts</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="principal">principal</span> <span word="long">long</span>-<span word="run">run</span> <span word="rival">rival</span>. 与之不同，其主要长期的对手中国仍然是一个追赶型经济体。 <span word="China">China</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="still">still</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="catch">catch</span>-<span word="up">up</span> <span word="economy">economy</span>. 随着与美国的生产力差距不断缩小， <span word="As">As</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="narrows">narrows</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="productivity">productivity</span> <span word="gap">gap</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="America">America</span>, <span word="its">its</span> <span word="exchange">exchange</span> <span word="rate">rate</span>, <span word="adjusted">adjusted</span> <span word="forinflation">forinflation</span>, <span word="will">will</span> <span word="tend">tend</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="rise">rise</span>. 人民币基于通胀调整后的汇率会趋于上升。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="yuan">yuan</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="appreciated">appreciated</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="about">about</span> 35% <span word="against">against</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span> <span word="since">since</span> <span word="mid">mid</span>-2005. 自2005年年中以来，人民币对美元已升值约35 %。 <span word="A">A</span> <span word="self">self</span>-<span word="deprecating">deprecating</span> <span word="currency">currency</span> 自我贬值货币 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="depreciation">depreciation</span> <span word="over">over</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="period">period</span> <span word="is">is</span>, <span word="of">of</span> <span word="course">course</span>, <span word="bad">bad</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="anyone">anyone</span> <span word="holding">holding</span> <span word="Americanassets">Americanassets</span>. 但凡持有美元的债权方都不希望美元在持有时期不断贬值。 <span word="But">But</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="merely">merely</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="store">store</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="value">value</span>. 但美元不仅是保值货币， <span word="It">It</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="become">become</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="popular">popular</span> <span word="funding">funding</span> <span word="currency">currency</span>. 它也是一种流行的融资型货币。 <span word="Banks">Banks</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="multinational">multinational</span> <span word="firms">firms</span> <span word="borrow">borrow</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="dollars">dollars</span>, <span word="even">even</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="accumulate">accumulate</span> <span word="assets">assets</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="otherdenominations">otherdenominations</span>. 银行和跨国公司甚至在用其他货币积累资产时也会借入美元。 <span word="Since">Since</span> <span word="no">no</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="wants">wants</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="borrow">borrow</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="currency">currency</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="only">only</span> <span word="goes">goes</span> <span word="up">up</span>, <span word="this">this</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="role">role</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="China">China</span> <span word="scurrency">scurrency</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="easily">easily</span> <span word="play">play</span>. 鉴于没有人愿意借入只会升值的货币，人民币自然不能如此收放自如。 <span word="Moreover">Moreover</span>, <span word="because">because</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="role">role</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="funding">funding</span> <span word="currency">currency</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span> <span word="tends">tends</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="strengthen">strengthen</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="timesof">timesof</span> <span word="crisis">crisis</span>. 并且，由于其融资型货币的特点，美元往往在危机时期走强， <span word="That">That</span> <span word="explains">explains</span> <span word="why">why</span> <span word="emerging">emerging</span> <span word="economies">economies</span> <span word="feel">feel</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="lumpy">lumpy</span>, <span word="unpredictable">unpredictable</span> <span word="need">need</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="dollars">dollars</span>. 这解释了为什么新兴经济体对美元的需求起伏不定，难以预测。 <span word="America">America</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="currency">currency</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="hold">hold</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="value">value</span> <span word="against">against</span> <span word="others">others</span>. 美元可能不会保持住其相对于他国货币的价值， <span word="But">But</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="times">times</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="stress">stress</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="appeal">appeal</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span> <span word="asset">asset</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="always">always</span> <span word="holds">holds</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="value">value</span> <span word="against">against</span> <span word="adollar">adollar</span> <span word="debt">debt</span>. 但在非常时期，美元资产的吸引力在于它能始终保持其相对于美元债务的价值。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="hegemon">hegemon</span> <span word="partly">partly</span> <span word="because">because</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="hedge">hedge</span>. 这种全方位的防御力某种程度上巩固了美元的全球霸主地位。 词语解释 1.<span word="according">according</span> <span word="to">to</span> 根据，按照;据所说 <span word="Again">Again</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="according">according</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="recently">recently</span> <span word="declassifiedinformation">declassifiedinformation</span>. 这也还是根据最近解密的信息得知的。 <span word="It">It</span> <span word="did">did</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="go">go</span> <span word="according">according</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="plan">plan</span>. 这个妥协方案并没有按计划执行。 2.<span word="offer">offer</span> <span word="to">to</span> 提供 <span word="A">A</span> <span word="sep">sep</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="retirement">retirement</span> <span word="savings">savings</span> <span word="plan">plan</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="small">small</span> <span word="companies">companies</span> <span word="often">often</span> <span word="offer">offer</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="employees">employees</span>. 一个<span word="sep">sep</span>是一个退休储蓄计划，是小公司经常为员工提供的。 <span word="Another">Another</span> <span word="significant">significant</span> <span word="gap">gap</span> <span word="exists">exists</span> <span word="between">between</span> <span word="mobile">mobile</span> <span word="access">access</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="e">e</span>-<span word="resources">resources</span> <span word="presently">presently</span> <span word="offered">offered</span> <span word="bylibraries">bylibraries</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="services">services</span> <span word="libraries">libraries</span> <span word="wish">wish</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="offer">offer</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="mobile">mobile</span> <span word="users">users</span>. 另一个显著的断层是现有的移动设备接入电子资源与图书馆希望向移动读者提供的服务之间的差别。 3.<span word="decide">decide</span> <span word="to">to</span> 决定 <span word="Why">Why</span> <span word="did">did</span> <span word="you">you</span> <span word="decide">decide</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="talk">talk</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="it">it</span>? 那你为什么还决定把这件事说出来? <span word="When">When</span> <span word="you">you</span> <span word="decide">decide</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="improve">improve</span> <span word="your">your</span> <span word="life">life</span>, <span word="you">you</span> <span word="really">really</span> <span word="do">do</span>. 当你决定去改变你的生活，你真的做了。 4.<span word="expect">expect</span> <span word="to">to</span> 期许 <span word="We">We</span> <span word="might">might</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="expect">expect</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="see">see</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="trade">trade</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="services">services</span>. 我们也许还可以期望看到服务贸易的增多。 <span word="Experts">Experts</span> <span word="expect">expect</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="throw">throw</span> <span word="away">away</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="early">early</span> <span word="work">work</span>. 专家们希望把自己的早期作品置之度外。</p>
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