预测当下经济
<p> 2015复习正是强化复习阶段，在考研英语中占了40分，所以考研英语阅读是英语科目中重要的一项。名师老师曾建议过考研生需要坚持每天泛读10-15分钟的英文原刊。强烈推荐了杂志《经济学人》.杂志中的文章也是考研英语的主要材料来源.希望考研考生认真阅读，快速提高考研英语阅读水平。 <span word="Forecasting">Forecasting</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="present">present</span> 预测当下 <span word="Taking">Taking</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="pulse">pulse</span> 把握经济脉动 <span word="How">How</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="gauge">gauge</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="current">current</span> <span word="state">state</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="economy">economy</span> 如何衡量当前经济状态 <span word="IT">IT</span> <span word="IS">IS</span> <span word="hard">hard</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="predict">predict</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="future">future</span>: <span word="witnessforecasters">witnessforecasters</span> <span word="failure">failure</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="foresee">foresee</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="crisis">crisis</span>.<span word="Indeed">Indeed</span>, <span word="even">even</span> <span word="ascertaining">ascertaining</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="current">current</span> <span word="state">state</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="economy">economy</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="tricky">tricky</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="first">first</span> <span word="officialestimates">officialestimates</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="quarterly">quarterly</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="generally">generally</span> <span word="published">published</span> <span word="between">between</span> <span word="four">four</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="six">six</span> <span word="weeks">weeks</span> <span word="after">after</span> <span word="eachquarter">eachquarter</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="finished">finished</span>. <span word="Interpreting">Interpreting</span> <span word="them">them</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="fraught">fraught</span> <span word="since">since</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="frequently">frequently</span> <span word="revised">revised</span>.<span word="Such">Such</span> <span word="delays">delays</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="uncertainties">uncertainties</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="led">led</span> <span word="economy">economy</span>-<span word="watchers">watchers</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="search">search</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="gauges">gauges</span>. 预测未来是困难的：你看看那些未能成功预见金融危机的预测机构就知道了。事实上，即使要确定经济的当前状态也是棘手的。官方对季度<span word="GDP">GDP</span>的估测一般是在每个季度结束后的4到6周方才公布。这些数据经常修订，要对它们做出解释实在挑战重重。而发布数据的拖延和不确定性也导致经济观察家们转而寻求其他的经济度量方式。 <span word="Simply">Simply</span> <span word="asking">asking</span> <span word="business">business</span>-<span word="folk">folk</span> <span word="what">what</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="think">think</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="venerable">venerable</span> <span word="traditionBritain">traditionBritain</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="IndustrialTrends">IndustrialTrends</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="example">example</span> <span word="dates">dates</span> <span word="back">back</span> <span word="to">to</span> 1958<span word="but">but</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="surveys">surveys</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="flourishing">flourishing</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="never">never</span> <span word="before">before</span>.<span word="Among">Among</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="influential">influential</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="purchasing">purchasing</span>-<span word="manager">manager</span> <span word="indices">indices</span>. <span word="Every">Every</span> <span word="month">month</span> <span word="managers">managers</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="bothmanufacturing">bothmanufacturing</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="private">private</span> <span word="services">services</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="asked">asked</span> <span word="whether">whether</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="firms">firms</span> <span word="output">output</span>, <span word="employment">employment</span>,<span word="orders">orders</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="like">like</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="expanded">expanded</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="contracted">contracted</span>. <span word="An">An</span> <span word="index">index</span> <span word="based">based</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="net">net</span> <span word="balance">balance</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="theiranswers">theiranswers</span> <span word="shows">shows</span> <span word="expansion">expansion</span> <span word="above">above</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="level">level</span> <span word="of">of</span> 50 <span word="and">and</span> <span word="contraction">contraction</span> <span word="below">below</span> <span word="it">it</span>. 单刀直入问问商人们的想法是一个古老的传统，这可以追溯到1958年时的英国产业动态但此类调查如今正经历前所未有的蓬勃发展。其中最有影响的是采购经理人指数。每个月，制造业和私人服务业的经理们都会被问到他们公司的产出，就业，订单量之类是否扩大或缩小。根据他们的答案得出一个净差额指数，若指数高于50，则是经济扩张的讯号，若低于50，则表明经济紧缩。 <span word="These">These</span> <span word="findings">findings</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="turn">turn</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="used">used</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="estimate">estimate</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="current">current</span> <span word="rate">rate</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="growth">growth</span>, <span word="given">given</span> <span word="theprevious">theprevious</span> <span word="relationship">relationship</span> <span word="between">between</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="indices">indices</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span>. <span word="For">For</span> <span word="example">example</span>, <span word="Markit">Markit</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="research">research</span> <span word="group">group</span>,<span word="reported">reported</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="week">week</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="composite">composite</span> <span word="index">index</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="manufacturing">manufacturing</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="services">services</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="euro">euro</span> <span word="zonestood">zonestood</span> <span word="at">at</span> 52.8 <span word="in">in</span> <span word="June">June</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="survey">survey</span> <span word="suggests">suggests</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="euro">euro</span> <span word="area">area</span> <span word="should">should</span> <span word="grow">grow</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="around">around</span> 0.4% <span word="in">in</span> <span word="thesecond">thesecond</span> <span word="quarter">quarter</span>, <span word="twice">twice</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="fast">fast</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="first">first</span>, <span word="says">says</span> <span word="Chris">Chris</span> <span word="Williamson">Williamson</span>, <span word="an">an</span> <span word="economist">economist</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="Markit">Markit</span>. 基于这个指数以往与<span word="GDP">GDP</span>之间的联系，这些发现可以反过来用于估计目前的经济增长速度。举个例子，根据研究小组麦盖提本周的报告，6月份欧元区制造业和服务业的综合指数为52.8。麦盖提的经济学家克里斯威廉姆森说，本项调查显示，欧元区第二季度经济增长率约为0.4%，是第一季度增速的两倍。 <span word="Markit">Markit</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="estimate">estimate</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="second">second</span> <span word="quarter">quarter</span> <span word="euro">euro</span>-<span word="zone">zone</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span> <span word="growth">growth</span> <span word="appeared">appeared</span> <span word="six">six</span> <span word="weeks">weeks</span> <span word="before">before</span> <span word="thefirst">thefirst</span> <span word="official">official</span> <span word="estimate">estimate</span>. <span word="Such">Such</span> <span word="surveys">surveys</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="benefits">benefits</span>:<span word="the">the</span> <span word="method">method</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="transparent">transparent</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="easyto">easyto</span> <span word="grasp">grasp</span>. <span word="And">And</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="findings">findings</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="revised">revised</span> <span word="once">once</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="final">final</span> <span word="reports">reports</span> <span word="emerge">emerge</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="week">week</span> <span word="after">after</span> <span word="theflash">theflash</span> <span word="estimates">estimates</span>. 麦盖提公布的有关第二季度欧元区<span word="GDP">GDP</span>的增长估测比官方评估结果整整早了六周。而且这样的调查还有其他好处：使用的方法完全透明且易于掌握。而且，一旦闪电估测一周后产生了最终报告，估测结果将不再进行修正。 <span word="Some">Some</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="providers">providers</span> <span word="go">go</span> <span word="further">further</span>, <span word="seeking">seeking</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="exploit">exploit</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="relevant">relevant</span> <span word="statistics">statistics</span>, <span word="such">such</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="officialfigures">officialfigures</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="passenger">passenger</span>-<span word="car">car</span> <span word="registrations">registrations</span>. <span word="This">This</span> <span word="requires">requires</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="sophisticated">sophisticated</span> <span word="model">model</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="extracta">extracta</span> <span word="common">common</span> <span word="signal">signal</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="welter">welter</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="become">become</span> <span word="available">available</span>. <span word="This">This</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="theapproach">theapproach</span> <span word="adopted">adopted</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="Now">Now</span>-<span word="Casting">Casting</span> <span word="Economics">Economics</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="firm">firm</span> <span word="whose">whose</span> <span word="founders">founders</span> <span word="include">include</span> <span word="twoeconomists">twoeconomists</span>, <span word="Lucrezia">Lucrezia</span> <span word="Reichlin">Reichlin</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Domenico">Domenico</span> <span word="Giannone">Giannone</span>. <span word="In">In</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="case">case</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="euro">euro</span> <span word="zone">zone</span>, <span word="theirmodel">theirmodel</span> <span word="gobbles">gobbles</span> <span word="up">up</span> 50 <span word="monthly">monthly</span> <span word="variables">variables</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="uses">uses</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="past">past</span> <span word="relationships">relationships</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span> <span word="tocalculate">tocalculate</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="estimate">estimate</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="current">current</span> <span word="quarter">quarter</span>. <span word="At">At</span> <span word="present">present</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="firm">firm</span>, <span word="whose">whose</span> <span word="clients">clients</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="hedgefunds">hedgefunds</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="asset">asset</span> <span word="managers">managers</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="expecting">expecting</span> <span word="growth">growth</span> <span word="of">of</span> 0.26% <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="secondquartersomewhat">secondquartersomewhat</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="sluggish">sluggish</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="Markit">Markit</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="estimate">estimate</span>. 有些数据供应商则走的更远，寻求利用所有相关的统计信息，比如有关新型乘用车注册的官方数字。这需要一个复杂的模型来从冗杂的数据中提取出有关<span word="GDP">GDP</span>的通用信号。目前，短时预测经济公司正是采用这种方法，其创始人包括两位经济学家，卢克雷西娅赖希林和多梅尼科詹诺内。在欧元区范围内，他们使用模型抓取了50个月的变量，并利用其过去与<span word="GDP">GDP</span>的联系来计算、估测本季度的经济形式。该公司的客户是对冲基金和其他资产管理公司，目前它预期二季度经济增长率为0.26%，略低于麦盖提公布的估测数据。 <span word="In">In</span> <span word="principle">principle</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="model">model</span>-<span word="based">based</span> <span word="approach">approach</span> <span word="might">might</span> <span word="appear">appear</span> <span word="superior">superior</span> <span word="because">because</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="exploits">exploits</span> <span word="moreinformation">moreinformation</span>. <span word="On">On</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="hand">hand</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="black">black</span> <span word="box">box</span>. <span word="Since">Since</span> <span word="surveys">surveys</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="themselves">themselves</span> <span word="animportant">animportant</span> <span word="source">source</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="information">information</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="nowcasts">nowcasts</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="suggests">suggests</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="methods">methods</span> <span word="willco">willco</span>-<span word="exist">exist</span>. 原则上而言，因为基于模型的统计方式利用到更多的信息，可能会比普通方法更胜一筹。然而另一方面，它更多的是一个黑盒测试。由于调查本身也是短时预测信息的重要来源，这两种调查方式将会共存。 词语解释 1.<span word="search">search</span> <span word="for">for</span> 搜索，搜寻 <span word="Microsoft">Microsoft</span> <span word="disclosed">disclosed</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="search">search</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="leader">leader</span> <span word="onfriday">onfriday</span>. 周五，微软宣布正在寻找新的领导者。 <span word="How">How</span> <span word="does">does</span> <span word="getty">getty</span> <span word="survive">survive</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="anyone">anyone</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="just">just</span> <span word="usegoogle">usegoogle</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="search">search</span> <span word="for">for</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="steal">steal</span>, <span word="digital">digital</span> <span word="images">images</span>? 然而现在，谁都可以用谷歌搜索、盗用数字图像，<span word="Getty">Getty</span>如何如何生存? 2.<span word="date">date</span> <span word="back">back</span> <span word="to">to</span> 追溯到 <span word="For">For</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="start">start</span>, <span word="they">they</span> <span word="date">date</span> <span word="back">back</span> <span word="to">to</span> 1947. 首先，这些规定要追溯至1947年。 <span word="The">The</span> <span word="arrangement">arrangement</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="allow">allow</span> <span word="google">google</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="index">index</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="produce">produce</span> <span word="links">links</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="texts">texts</span> <span word="which">which</span> <span word="date">date</span> <span word="back">back</span> <span word="tothe">tothe</span> 18<span word="th">th</span> <span word="century">century</span>. 该项协议将使<span word="google">google</span>公司可以对这些最早能到18世纪的文献建立索引和链接。 3.<span word="base">base</span> <span word="on">on</span> 建立在基础上 <span word="Russia">Russia</span> <span word="supplies">supplies</span> <span word="arms">arms</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="building">building</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="naval">naval</span> <span word="base">base</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="syria">syria</span> <span word="s">s</span> <span word="coast">coast</span>. 俄向叙提供武器，并正在叙沿海某处修建海军基地。 <span word="Left">Left</span>: <span word="lance">lance</span> <span word="cpl">cpl</span>. <span word="baker">baker</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="shir">shir</span> <span word="ghazay">ghazay</span> <span word="patrol">patrol</span> <span word="base">base</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="jan">jan</span>. 30. 左图:贝克尔下士在<span word="shir">shir</span> <span word="ghazay">ghazay</span>巡逻基地，1月30日。 4.<span word="seek">seek</span> <span word="to">to</span> 设法;企图，试图 <span word="Is">Is</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="something">something</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="you">you</span> <span word="seek">seek</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="do">do</span>? 这是不是你寻求做的事情? <span word="It">It</span> <span word="doesn">doesn</span> <span word="t">t</span> <span word="say">say</span>: <span word="we">we</span> <span word="seek">seek</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="beat">beat</span> <span word="analysts">analysts</span> <span word="expectations">expectations</span> <span word="every">every</span> <span word="quarter">quarter</span>. 上面并没有说：我们致力于每个季度都超出分析师们的预期。</p>
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