GMAT考试：Argument写作范文四十
<p> 79.</p><p> <span word="In">In</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="editorial">editorial</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="author">author</span> <span word="asserts">asserts</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="opinion">opinion</span> <span word="polls">polls</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="little">little</span> <span word="better">better</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="random">random</span> <span word="guesses">guesses</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="predicting">predicting</span> <span word="outcomes">outcomes</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="presidential">presidential</span> <span word="elections">elections</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="authors">authors</span> <span word="basis">basis</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="assertion">assertion</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="opinion">opinion</span> <span word="polls">polls</span> <span word="measure">measure</span> <span word="only">only</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="preferences">preferences</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="voters">voters</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="time">time</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="poll">poll</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="many">many</span> <span word="voters">voters</span> <span word="change">change</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="preferences">preferences</span> <span word="several">several</span> <span word="time">time</span> <span word="before">before</span> <span word="voting">voting</span>―<span word="some">some</span> <span word="remaining">remaining</span> <span word="undecided">undecided</span> <span word="until">until</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="moment">moment</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="cast">cast</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="vote">vote</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="authors">authors</span> <span word="reasoning">reasoning</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="unconvincing">unconvincing</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="critical">critical</span> <span word="respects">respects</span>.</p><p> <span word="First">First</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="alt">alt</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="predictions">predictions</span> <span word="based">based</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="random">random</span> <span word="guessing">guessing</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="greater">greater</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="number">number</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="candidates">candidates</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="less">less</span> <span word="likely">likely</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="prediction">prediction</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="correct">correct</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="reason">reason</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="obvious">obvious</span>: <span word="random">random</span> <span word="guessing">guessing</span> <span word="requires">requires</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="no">no</span> <span word="outside">outside</span> <span word="information">information</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="allowed">allowed</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="influence">influence</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="guess">guess</span>. <span word="Predictions">Predictions</span> <span word="based">based</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="opinion">opinion</span> <span word="polls">polls</span>, <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="hand">hand</span>, <span word="will">will</span> <span word="differ">differ</span> <span word="considerably">considerably</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="those">those</span> <span word="based">based</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="random">random</span> <span word="guesses">guesses</span> <span word="simply">simply</span> <span word="because">because</span> <span word="outside">outside</span> <span word="information">information</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="influence">influence</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="result">result</span>. <span word="For">For</span> <span word="example">example</span>, <span word="in">in</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="four">four</span>-<span word="person">person</span> <span word="race">race</span>, <span word="random">random</span> <span word="guessing">guessing</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="yield">yield</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="correct">correct</span> <span word="prediction">prediction</span> 25 <span word="percent">percent</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="time">time</span>, <span word="whereas">whereas</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="percentage">percentage</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="correct">correct</span> <span word="predictions">predictions</span> <span word="based">based</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="opinion">opinion</span> <span word="polls">polls</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="higher">higher</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="reason">reason</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="disparity">disparity</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="simple">simple</span>. <span word="Opinion">Opinion</span> <span word="polls">polls</span> <span word="enable">enable</span> <span word="us">us</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="narrow">narrow</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="choices">choices</span>. <span word="That">That</span> <span word="is">is</span>, <span word="opinion">opinion</span> <span word="polls">polls</span> <span word="serve">serve</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="reduce">reduce</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="number">number</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="viable">viable</span> <span word="candidates">candidates</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="voters">voters</span> <span word="mind">mind</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="thereby">thereby</span> <span word="increase">increase</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="likelihood">likelihood</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="prediction">prediction</span> <span word="based">based</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="them">them</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="correct">correct</span>.</p><p> <span word="In">In</span> <span word="addition">addition</span>, <span word="while">while</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="true">true</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="many">many</span> <span word="voters">voters</span> <span word="change">change</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="minds">minds</span> <span word="several">several</span> <span word="times">times</span> <span word="before">before</span> <span word="voting">voting</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="remain">remain</span> <span word="undecided">undecided</span> <span word="until">until</span> <span word="entering">entering</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="voting">voting</span> <span word="booth">booth</span>, <span word="this">this</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="true">true</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="everyone">everyone</span>. <span word="Moreover">Moreover</span>, <span word="people">people</span> <span word="who">who</span> <span word="do">do</span> <span word="change">change</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="minds">minds</span> <span word="frequently">frequently</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="wait">wait</span> <span word="until">until</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="last">last</span> <span word="moment">moment</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="decide">decide</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="typically">typically</span> <span word="narrowed">narrowed</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="choice">choice</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="few">few</span> <span word="candidates">candidates</span></p>
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