2015年职称英语理工类考试教材阅读判断重点文章及译文(2)
<p> <span word="El">El</span> <span word="Nino">Nino</span></p><p> <span word="While">While</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="forecasting">forecasting</span> <span word="methods">methods</span> <span word="had">had</span> <span word="limited">limited</span> <span word="success">success</span> <span word="predicting">predicting</span> <span word="the">the</span> 1997 <span word="El">El</span> <span word="Nino">Nino</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="few">few</span> <span word="months">months</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="advance">advance</span>1, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Columbia">Columbia</span> <span word="University">University</span> <span word="researchers">researchers</span> <span word="say">say</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="method">method</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="predict">predict</span> <span word="large">large</span> <span word="El">El</span> <span word="Nino">Nino</span> <span word="events">events</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="advance">advance</span>. <span word="That">That</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="good">good</span> <span word="news">news</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="governments">governments</span>, <span word="farmers">farmers</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="others">others</span> <span word="seeking">seeking</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="plan">plan</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="droughts">droughts</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="heavy">heavy</span> <span word="rainfall">rainfall</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="El">El</span> <span word="Nino">Nino</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="produce">produce</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="various">various</span> <span word="parts">parts</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="world">world</span>.</p><p> <span word="Using">Using</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="computer">computer</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="researchers">researchers</span> <span word="matched">matched</span> <span word="sea">sea</span>-<span word="surface">surface</span> <span word="temperatures">temperatures</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="later">later</span> <span word="El">El</span> <span word="Nino">Nino</span> <span word="occurrences">occurrences</span> <span word="between">between</span> 1980 <span word="and">and</span> 2000 <span word="and">and</span> <span word="were">were</span> <span word="then">then</span> <span word="able">able</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="anticipate">anticipate</span> <span word="El">El</span> <span word="Nino">Nino</span> <span word="events">events</span> <span word="dating">dating</span> <span word="back">back</span> <span word="to">to</span> 1857, <span word="using">using</span> <span word="prior">prior</span> <span word="sea">sea</span>-<span word="surface">surface</span> <span word="temperatures">temperatures</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="results">results</span> <span word="were">were</span> <span word="reported">reported</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="latest">latest</span> <span word="issue">issue</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="journal">journal</span> <span word="Nature">Nature</span>.</p><p> <span word="The">The</span> <span word="researchers">researchers</span> <span word="say">say</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="method">method</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="perfect">perfect</span>, <span word="but">but</span> <span word="Bryan">Bryan</span> <span word="C">C</span> <span word="Weare">Weare</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="meteorologist">meteorologist</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="University">University</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="California">California</span>, <span word="Davis">Davis</span>, <span word="who">who</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="involved">involved</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="work">work</span>, <span word="said">said</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="suggests">suggests</span>2 <span word="El">El</span> <span word="Nino">Nino</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="indeed">indeed</span> <span word="predictable">predictable</span>.</p><p> <span word="This">This</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="probably">probably</span> <span word="convince">convince</span> <span word="others">others</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="search">search</span> <span word="around">around</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="even">even</span> <span word="better">better</span> <span word="methods">methods</span>, <span word="said">said</span> <span word="Weare">Weare</span>. <span word="He">He</span> <span word="added">added</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="method">method</span> <span word="makes">makes</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="possible">possible</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="predict">predict</span> <span word="El">El</span> <span word="Nino">Nino</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="long">long</span> <span word="lead">lead</span> <span word="times">times</span>3. <span word="Other">Other</span> <span word="models">models</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="use">use</span> <span word="sea">sea</span>-<span word="surface">surface</span> <span word="temperatures">temperatures</span>, <span word="but">but</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="looked">looked</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="far">far</span> <span word="back">back</span> <span word="because">because</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="need">need</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="data">data</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="only">only</span> <span word="available">available</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="recent">recent</span> <span word="decades">decades</span>, <span word="Weare">Weare</span> <span word="said">said</span>.</p><p> <span word="The">The</span> <span word="ability">ability</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="predict">predict</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="wanning">wanning</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="cooling">cooling</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Pacific">Pacific</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="immense">immense</span> <span word="importance">importance</span>4. <span word="The">The</span> 1997 <span word="El">El</span> <span word="Nino">Nino</span>, <span word="for">for</span> <span word="example">example</span>, <span word="caused">caused</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="estimated">estimated</span> $20 <span word="billion">billion</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="damage">damage</span> <span word="worldwide">worldwide</span>, <span word="offset">offset</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="beneficial">beneficial</span> <span word="effects">effects</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="areas">areas</span>, <span word="said">said</span> <span word="David">David</span> <span word="Anderson">Anderson</span>, <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="European">European</span> <span word="Centre">Centre</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="Medium">Medium</span>-<span word="Range">Range</span> <span word="Weather">Weather</span> <span word="Forecasts">Forecasts</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Reading">Reading</span>, <span word="England">England</span>. <span word="The">The</span> 1877 <span word="El">El</span> <span word="Nino">Nino</span>, <span word="meanwhile">meanwhile</span>, <span word="coincided">coincided</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="failure">failure</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Indian">Indian</span> <span word="monsoon">monsoon</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="famine">famine</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="killed">killed</span> <span word="perhaps">perhaps</span> 40 <span word="million">million</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="India">India</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="China">China</span>, <span word="prompting">prompting</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="development">development</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="seasonal">seasonal</span> <span word="forecasting">forecasting</span>, <span word="Anderson">Anderson</span> <span word="said">said</span>.</p>
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