职称英语理工类的教材阅读理解文章及译文(2)
<p> <span word="World">World</span> <span word="Crude">Crude</span> <span word="Oil">Oil</span> <span word="Production">Production</span> <span word="May">May</span> <span word="Peak">Peak</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="Decade">Decade</span> <span word="Earlier">Earlier</span> <span word="Than">Than</span> <span word="Some">Some</span> <span word="Predict">Predict</span> <span word="In">In</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="finding">finding</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="speed">speed</span> <span word="efforts">efforts</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="conserve">conserve</span> <span word="oil">oil</span>，<span word="scientists">scientists</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Kuwait">Kuwait</span> <span word="predict">predict</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="world">world</span> <span word="conventional">conventional</span> <span word="crude">crude</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="peak">peak</span> <span word="in">in</span> 2014.<span word="This">This</span> <span word="prediction">prediction</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="almost">almost</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="decade">decade</span> <span word="earlier">earlier</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="predictions">predictions</span>. <span word="Their">Their</span> <span word="study">study</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="ACSEnergyFuels">ACSEnergyFuels</span>1. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="Hubbert">Hubbert</span> <span word="model">model</span> <span word="accurately">accurately</span> <span word="predicted">predicted</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="peak">peak</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="United">United</span> <span word="States">States</span> <span word="in">in</span> 1970.<span word="The">The</span> <span word="model">model</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="since">since</span> <span word="gained">gained</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="popularity">popularity</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="used">used</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="forecast">forecast</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="worldwide">worldwide</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="study">study</span> <span word="describes">describes</span> <span word="development">development</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="version">version</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Hubbert">Hubbert</span> <span word="model">model</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="provides">provides</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="realistic">realistic</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="accurate">accurate</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="forecast">forecast</span>. <span word="Using">Using</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="model">model</span>，<span word="the">the</span> <span word="scientists">scientists</span> <span word="evaluated">evaluated</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="trends">trends</span> <span word="of">of</span> 47 <span word="major">major</span> <span word="oil">oil</span>-<span word="producing">producing</span> <span word="countries">countries</span>，<span word="which">which</span> <span word="supply">supply</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="worlds">worlds</span> <span word="conventional">conventional</span> <span word="crude">crude</span> <span word="oil">oil</span>6.<span word="They">They</span> <span word="estimated">estimated</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="worldwide">worldwide</span> <span word="conventional">conventional</span> <span word="crude">crude</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="peak">peak</span> <span word="in">in</span> 2014，<span word="years">years</span> <span word="earlier">earlier</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="anticipated">anticipated</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="scientists">scientists</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="showed">showed</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="worlds">worlds</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="reserves">reserves</span>7 <span word="are">are</span> <span word="being">being</span> <span word="reduced">reduced</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="rate">rate</span> <span word="of">of</span> 2.1 <span word="percent">percent</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="year">year</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="model">model</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="help">help</span> <span word="inform">inform</span> <span word="energy">energy</span>-<span word="related">related</span> <span word="decisions">decisions</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="public">public</span> <span word="policy">policy</span> <span word="debate">debate</span>，<span word="they">they</span> <span word="suggest">suggest</span>. <span word="conserve">conserve</span> <span word="v">v</span>.保护，保存 <span word="irreversible">irreversible</span> <span word="adj">adj</span>.不可逆的，不可改变的 <span word="spark">spark</span> <span word="v">v</span>.闪耀;激发;鼓舞 <span word="insufficient">insufficient</span> 不充分的，不足的 注释： 2.<span word="the">the</span> <span word="Hubbert">Hubbert</span> <span word="model">model</span>：赫伯特模型是美国地质学家<span word="M">M</span>.<span word="King">King</span> <span word="Hubbert">Hubbert</span>于1956年创建的，这是一个随时间增长的模型，<span word="Hubbert">Hubbert</span>将其引入油气田开发，经推导使其成为一个可以预测油气田累积产量、瞬时产量、年产量和可采储量等多项开发指标的多功能预测模型。 4.<span word="that">that</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="peak">peak</span> <span word="oil">oil</span>：<span word="that">that</span>指代<span word="concept">concept</span>。 6.<span word="conventional">conventional</span> <span word="crude">crude</span> <span word="oil">oil</span>：常规原油 4.<span word="What">What</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="major">major</span> <span word="achievement">achievement</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="study">study</span> <span word="mentioned">mentioned</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="last">last</span> <span word="paragraph">paragraph</span>? <span word="B">B</span>.<span word="It">It</span> <span word="predicts">predicts</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="decline">decline</span> <span word="in">in</span> 47 <span word="countries">countries</span>. <span word="D">D</span>.<span word="It">It</span> <span word="discovers">discovers</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="gend">gend</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="worldwide">worldwide</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span>. <span word="A">A</span>.<span word="American">American</span> <span word="scientists">scientists</span>. <span word="C">C</span>.<span word="British">British</span> <span word="scientists">scientists</span>. 答案与题解： 2.<span word="D">D</span> 此句接下来的句子中所提到的<span word="a">a</span> <span word="related">related</span> <span word="concept">concept</span>即是与<span word="a">a</span> <span word="bell">bell</span> <span word="shaped">shaped</span> <span word="curve">curve</span>相关的概念，也就是说，接下来的这个句子对<span word="a">a</span> <span word="bell">bell</span> <span word="shaped">shaped</span> <span word="curve">curve</span>做了解释，即世界石油生产达到最大峰值后将下降。 4.<span word="A">A</span> 选项<span word="B">B</span>、<span word="C">C</span>和<span word="D">D</span>所述内容均未在文章中提到。最后一段告诉我们，科学家使用新的模型评估了47个主要的产油国家的石油生产趋势，并预计全球常规原油生产到2014年将达最高峰值。所以，<span word="A">A</span>是答案。 译文：第二篇 世界原油产量可能提前十年达到峰值 伊布赫姆?纳夏威和同事们指出，全球石油消耗的快速增长使人们对石油峰值预测的兴趣越来越浓。石油峰值指的是石油产量达到最大值后开始下降的时间点。科学家已经构建了几个模型来预测这一时间，有些模型认为这一时间在2020年或更晚。其中最着名的预测模型之一是赫伯特模型。赫伯特模型认为世界石油产量呈钟形曲线，与此相关的概念是石油峰值。这一术语指的是世界石油产量达到峰值的那一刻，之后将呈现无法逆转的下降趋势。 但是，最近研究表明，这一模型不足以解释某些国家更加复杂的石油生产周期。科学家称，这些生产周期受到技术变化、政策和其他因素的很大影响。</p>
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