2015年职称英语理工类教材阅读理解文章及译文(2)
<p> <span word="In">In</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="finding">finding</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="speed">speed</span> <span word="efforts">efforts</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="conserve">conserve</span> <span word="oil">oil</span>，<span word="scientists">scientists</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Kuwait">Kuwait</span> <span word="predict">predict</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="world">world</span> <span word="conventional">conventional</span> <span word="crude">crude</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="peak">peak</span> <span word="in">in</span> 2014.<span word="This">This</span> <span word="prediction">prediction</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="almost">almost</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="decade">decade</span> <span word="earlier">earlier</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="predictions">predictions</span>. <span word="Their">Their</span> <span word="study">study</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="ACSEnergyFuels">ACSEnergyFuels</span>1.</p><p> <span word="Ibrahim">Ibrahim</span> <span word="Nashawi">Nashawi</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="colleagues">colleagues</span> <span word="point">point</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="rapid">rapid</span> <span word="growth">growth</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="consumption">consumption</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="sparked">sparked</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="growing">growing</span> <span word="interest">interest</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="predicting">predicting</span> <span word="peak">peak</span> <span word="oil">oil</span>. <span word="Peak">Peak</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="point">point</span> <span word="where">where</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="reaches">reaches</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="maximum">maximum</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="then">then</span> <span word="declines">declines</span>. <span word="Scientists">Scientists</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="developed">developed</span> <span word="several">several</span> <span word="models">models</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="forecast">forecast</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="point">point</span>，<span word="and">and</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="put">put</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="date">date</span> <span word="at">at</span> 2020 <span word="or">or</span> <span word="later">later</span>. <span word="One">One</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="famous">famous</span> <span word="forecast">forecast</span> <span word="models">models</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="called">called</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Hubbert">Hubbert</span> <span word="model">model</span>2.<span word="It">It</span> <span word="assumes">assumes</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="follow">follow</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="bell">bell</span> <span word="shaped">shaped</span> <span word="curve">curve</span>3.<span word="A">A</span> <span word="related">related</span> <span word="concept">concept</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="that">that</span>4 <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Peak">Peak</span> <span word="Oil">Oil</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="term">term</span> <span word="Peak">Peak</span> <span word="Oil">Oil</span> <span word="indicates">indicates</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="moment">moment</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="which">which</span> <span word="world">world</span> <span word="wide">wide</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="peak">peak</span>，<span word="afterwards">afterwards</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="start">start</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="irreversible">irreversible</span> <span word="decline">decline</span>.</p><p> <span word="The">The</span> <span word="Hubbert">Hubbert</span> <span word="model">model</span> <span word="accurately">accurately</span> <span word="predicted">predicted</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="peak">peak</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="United">United</span> <span word="States">States</span> <span word="in">in</span> 1970.<span word="The">The</span> <span word="model">model</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="since">since</span> <span word="gained">gained</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="popularity">popularity</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="used">used</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="forecast">forecast</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="worldwide">worldwide</span>.</p><p> <span word="However">However</span>，<span word="recent">recent</span> <span word="studies">studies</span> <span word="show">show</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="model">model</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="insufficient">insufficient</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="account">account</span> <span word="for">for</span>5 <span word="more">more</span> <span word="complex">complex</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="cycles">cycles</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="countries">countries</span>. <span word="Those">Those</span> <span word="cycles">cycles</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="heavily">heavily</span> <span word="influenced">influenced</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="technology">technology</span> <span word="changes">changes</span>，<span word="politics">politics</span>，<span word="and">and</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="factors">factors</span>，<span word="the">the</span> <span word="scientists">scientists</span> <span word="say">say</span>.</p><p> <span word="The">The</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="study">study</span> <span word="describes">describes</span> <span word="development">development</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="version">version</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Hubbert">Hubbert</span> <span word="model">model</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="provides">provides</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="realistic">realistic</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="accurate">accurate</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="forecast">forecast</span>. <span word="Using">Using</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="model">model</span>，<span word="the">the</span> <span word="scientists">scientists</span> <span word="evaluated">evaluated</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="trends">trends</span> <span word="of">of</span> 47 <span word="major">major</span> <span word="oil">oil</span>-<span word="producing">producing</span> <span word="countries">countries</span>，<span word="which">which</span> <span word="supply">supply</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="worlds">worlds</span> <span word="conventional">conventional</span> <span word="crude">crude</span> <span word="oil">oil</span>6.<span word="They">They</span> <span word="estimated">estimated</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="worldwide">worldwide</span> <span word="conventional">conventional</span> <span word="crude">crude</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="production">production</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="peak">peak</span> <span word="in">in</span> 2014，<span word="years">years</span> <span word="earlier">earlier</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="anticipated">anticipated</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="scientists">scientists</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="showed">showed</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="worlds">worlds</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="reserves">reserves</span>7 <span word="are">are</span> <span word="being">being</span> <span word="reduced">reduced</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="rate">rate</span> <span word="of">of</span> 2.1 <span word="percent">percent</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="year">year</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="model">model</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="help">help</span> <span word="inform">inform</span> <span word="energy">energy</span>-<span word="related">related</span> <span word="decisions">decisions</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="public">public</span> <span word="policy">policy</span> <span word="debate">debate</span>，<span word="they">they</span> <span word="suggest">suggest</span>.</p>
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