1999年会出现经济衰退吗？
<p><span word="The">The</span> <span word="Crash">Crash</span> <span word="Of">Of</span> '99?</p><p>1999年会出现经济衰退吗？</p><p><span word="THE">THE</span> <span word="CRISIS">CRISIS</span> <span word="STAGE">STAGE</span>: <span word="TheU">TheU</span>.<span word="S">S</span>.<span word="economy">economy</span> <span word="suddenly">suddenly</span> <span word="looks">looks</span> <span word="weaker">weaker</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="almost">almost</span> <span word="anyone">anyone</span> <span word="expected">expected</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="conventional">conventional</span> <span word="wisdom">wisdom</span> <span word="still">still</span> <span word="saysAmericawon">saysAmericawon</span>'<span word="t">t</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="pulled">pulled</span> <span word="down">down</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="woes">woes</span>. <span word="Don">Don</span>'<span word="t">t</span> <span word="bet">bet</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="it">it</span>.</p><p>危机时期：美国的经济，骤然看起来，比人们预计的要糟糕。很多看法仍然坚持美国不会被时下的全球经济灾难拖累。决不要在这个问题上打赌。</p><p><span word="By">By</span> <span word="Robert">Robert</span> <span word="J">J</span>. <span word="Samuelson">Samuelson</span></p><p>罗伯特&<span word="middot">middot</span>;塞缪尔森</p><p> <span word="There">There</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="ways">ways</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="interpret">interpret</span>『解释；说明；阐明』 <span word="the">the</span> <span word="slide">slide</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="stock">stock</span> <span word="market">market</span> <span word="that">that</span>, <span word="despite">despite</span> <span word="intermittent">intermittent</span> <span word="rallies">rallies</span>『跌停回升；降后复涨』, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="down">down</span> <span word="almost">almost</span> 17 <span word="percent">percent</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="mid">mid</span>-<span word="July">July</span> <span word="peak">peak</span>『最高点；高峰』. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="first">first</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="investors">investors</span> <span word="simply">simply</span> <span word="got">got</span> <span word="rattled">rattled</span>『惊慌失措』 <span word="by">by</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="series">series</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="events">events</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="barely">barely</span> <span word="understood">understood</span>, <span word="from">from</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="collapse">collapse</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Russian">Russian</span> <span word="ruble">ruble</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="mid">mid</span>-<span word="August">August</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="near">near</span> <span word="bankruptcy">bankruptcy</span>『破产』<span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Long">Long</span>- <span word="Term">Term</span> <span word="Capital">Capital</span> <span word="Markets">Markets</span> <span word="hedge">hedge</span> <span word="fund">fund</span>『投资基金；投资集团』 <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="end">end</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="September">September</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="second">second</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="market">market</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="signaling">signaling</span>『做表示；发信号』 <span word="a">a</span> <span word="genuine">genuine</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="turning">turning</span> <span word="point">point</span>: <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="United">United</span> <span word="States">States</span>, <span word="after">after</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="seven">seven</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="healthy">healthy</span> <span word="expansion">expansion</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="stumbling">stumbling</span> <span word="into">into</span>『陷入』 <span word="sharp">sharp</span> <span word="slowdown">slowdown</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="even">even</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="recession">recession</span>『衰退；衰退期』.</p><p>尽管股市断断续续出现反弹，但仍从今年7月中旬的最高点下跌了大约17％。对于当前股市的狂泻有两种解释：第一种解释是，投资者对所发生的一系列事件困惑不解。这些事件有8月中旬俄罗斯卢布的贬值、9月底长期资本管理公司濒临崩溃等；第二种解释是，市场正在发出经济将发生真正转折的信号：美国经济在经历了7年健康的增长之后将急剧减速，甚至进入衰退。</p>
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